Wrap – Week Ended 4/11/25

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Volatile week for the broad markets ending in a decent bounce after the tariff-induced drubbing of the prior week. Monday's open likely better on more deals and some tariff exceptions announced this weekend. This action is coloring the energy space and commodities didn't bounce last week but fell less than in prior weeks. Forecast U.S oil production has been revised lower and we expect a series of downward revisions now as activity falters at the exact time that it usually picks up seasonally.

Holdings Watch

• Portfolio tables are updated.
• We've been quiet on the trading front, not buying into the random headline-induced dead-cat bounce but instead doing our homework and watching our levels.

Notable Items

Permian oil rigs at lowest levels since 9/2021.

Active frac crews falling when they should be picking up. This is a direct response to oil price weakness. Our new Secretary of Energy knows this but continues to speak to rising energy production.  Maybe he means more coal and nuclear.  A lot of people will be laid off soon.

EIA moved to cut their oil production forecast this week. Expect more of this as growth is going to be difficult in light of the two preceding charts and the last one doesn't enter into their model directly (we'll see fewer completed wells factor in later).  Ebbing GDP will also take more time to enter in.

Earnings season is around the corner and it's going to be one of the more interesting 1Q's in recent memory as the upstream and oil service try to plot a course in increasingly uncertain times.

Have a good weekend,

Z