.
The ZLT was down 6.5% on the week last week on weaker oil and natural gas pricing. 3Q24 earnings season commenced with reports from LBRT (soft) and SLB (in line) but the season really heats up this week and next with more Service names and the first of the E&Ps reporting. Please our calendar of over 70 owned/watched names here.
Holdings Watch:
- We are winding down the ZLT ahead of opening two new portfolios in 2025. Please see the Housekeeping Watch below.
- We sold a significant portion of one our largest holdings last week, up 12% including dividends.
- The blotter is updated
Free Stuff Last Week: Nothing but soon.
Questions and comments under The Wrap will be addressed in the Monday post.
Questions about the site should be sent to zmanalpha@gmail.com. Ask us about a Test Drive there.
Have a good weekend,
Z
Housekeeping Watch:
New Z Portfolio Coming January 2025
- We are closing the ZLT over 4Q24 for estate planning needs. We will do some trading buys or position adds during the rest of the year but on the whole will be selling into strength.
- For the new year, two new portfolio accounts will be opened.
- At present, the thinking is to have two new portfolios in January 2025.
- The first, for now labeled "Invest" (this may be the name) will be:
- $100K,
- long only,
- with 7 to 15 names,
- medium term orientation (3 months up to years),
- The second, for now labeled "Flex" will be:
- $100K,
- long, short, option,
- shorter term,
- All trades will be accompanied by position size making it possible to pattern the two portfolios for those who might wish to.
- Both accounts may use margin and usage will be noted if/when it occurs in the long only account.
- The first, for now labeled "Invest" (this may be the name) will be:
- We will have a New Portfolio tab at upper left showing all positions with size and cost (not sure yet if we can dynamically price this).
- Sidebar: When I got my start back in the early 90's, after a fairly brief internship, I took over running a long only limited partnership called Evergreen and a long/short one call Valuepartners. I ran some local money including a lot of high new worth types and one president of the US. So I've done this before and I'm looking forward to the changes I'm about to make to Z4 Energy Research.
- This section will be included in upcoming posts and will be edited as we get closer to the move.
Website Theme Change Coming In November
- We are working on a new, easier to use theme for the site that will be mobile friendly with rollout planned for the 3rd week of November.
Production Watch: Production on Friday was 103.1 Bcfgpd according to BNEF. This is unwelcome, may be tied to the Permian, and definitely bears watching.
LNG Watch: LNG exports were 13.5 Bcfgpd on Friday according to BNEF.
OPEC Total DOC (OPEC+) mmbopd
2017 32.0
2018 31.3
2019 29.4
2020 25.7
2021 26.3
2022 27.7
2023 27.0
1Q24 26.570 41.236
2Q24 26.624 40.934
3Q24 26.515 40.601
Jul-24 26.838 41.020
Aug-24 26.648 40.661
Sep-24 26.044 40.104