06
Apr
The Wrap – Week Ended 4/5/24
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The portfolio was up 3.1% last week and we continued to take some weight off the table and reposition ahead of the 1Q24 reporting season in the wake of a good run which has left some of our names exceedingly overweight. Expect more Core position partial sales as well as some new adds soon. Earnings season starts in 2 weeks.
Holdings Watch:
- We added to one sand name last week.
- We added to one frac name last week.
- 4/3/24 - MGY – We sold more MGY at average $26.45, up 108% to our cost not including dividends, in a follow on trade to our recent sale. As per our last color, we like just about everything about the MGY story but the shares have reached our 2024 upside target and we still anticipate a selling shareholder sale in the not too distant future that may afford a re-entry point for these shares. With this sale, MGY moves down from our 3rd largest holding to our #6 position, in line with the value of our CHRD position in the portfolio.
- The blotter is updated
Other Items of Note:
- Please see our latest Natural Gas Macro Update here.
- Last week we reduced our 2024 Base Case for upstream modeling from $3.50 to $2.75. Our Sub Case was reduced from $2.75 to $2.25 and we re-ran 2024 models for a number of oily and gassy upstream names.
- If you want to see a name we follow but don't own run at the lower deck let us know in comments.
- Also, take note the ramp in ICE natural gas longs in the cheat sheet below. Some large non commercial players are looking through the shoulder season towards the greatly improved supply / demand picture that's unfolding largely due to curtailments and in part due to lower completion activity on the supply side and strong power burn on the demand side.
Questions and comments under The Wrap will be addressed in the Monday post.
Questions about the site can be sent to zmanalpha@gmail.com
Have a good weekend,
Z
Pemex, Bay of Campeche
https://twitter.com/Golpe_politico/status/1776800768177160240
April 7th, 2024 at 10:53 amPEMEX…….another accident………AKAL-B platform fire…..9 injured.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/mexico-s-pemex-says-nine-injured-in-akal-b-oil-platform-fire-1.2056036
April 7th, 2024 at 10:56 amThe Positions page is updated:
https://zmansenergybrain.com/subscriber-data/holdings-wiki/
April 7th, 2024 at 11:49 am1Q24 Calendar updated – 73 energy names (47 with no date yet set).
https://zmansenergybrain.com/subscriber-data/calendar/
April 7th, 2024 at 2:52 pm