23
Mar
Wrap – Week Ended 03/22/24
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Positive week with the ZLT up 4.4% on the week.
Items of note from the week:
- 3-2-1 cracks remain strong and supportive of elevated near term refining and we are seeing this in the weekly EIA runs.
- The CFTC long vs short WTI position moved back over the 4x level. We consider 4x level to be solidly positive sentiment territory and this comes after a rally that fell to near only 2x several weeks ago.
- Gas storage saw the first early build of the season last week. Look for a return to a modest withdrawal (around 25 Bcf) this week.
- Gas directed drilling hit a new cycle low of 112 rigs last week.
- 4 rigs were dropped from the Haynesville, also pushing the play to a new cycle low.
Not in the table but also of note:
- Lower 48 natural gas production fell below year ago levels last week.
Free Stuff Last Week: None
Holdings Watch:
- We were on holiday for half the period but were taking a look at our positioning and plan rebalancing trades before quarter end.
- Expect those early next week.
- Trades Last Week:
- We added to one small cap upstream name last week.
- We sold our position in PR – As telegraphed in the March 5th post, we moved to sell our position in PR at average $16.88, up 37%, excluding dividends, as it neared our Base Case target of $17 faster than expected. We like the company and will continue to monitor but think it’s run pretty hard and could see selling shareholder pressure near term. PR was our 8th largest holding. Our most recent post on PR can be viewed here:https://zmansenergybrain.com/2024/03/05/tuesday-morning-pr-crgy/
- The blotter is updated.
Questions about the site may be directed to zmanalpha@gmail.com
Have a good weekend,
Z
You can PAYb. me now……..or pay me later.!
Mismanagement, corruption, lack of maintenance, & under investment are all coming into play at PVDSA…. here is the latest exMPLE:
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Venezuelan-Oil-Refinery-Halts-Units-After-Fire.html
March 23rd, 2024 at 12:04 pmProduction Watch: BNEF put production at 99.1 Bcfgpd on Friday.
March 24th, 2024 at 10:59 am