05
Nov
Wrap – Week Ended 11/3/23
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We are through 3 weeks and 30 names of the 3Q23 energy earnings season. In the upstream and oil service spaces results so far have been largely as expected, plus or minus, with few surprises. Early guidance on 2024 points to maintenance where we expect it and modest growth in some of our names that have been growing modestly in recent years. FCF is king. Outspend is a thing of 2Q23 for gassy players who are again mostly back to generating FCF.
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In natural gas, we note speculators have greatly increased their long positions while massively covering their shores. Gas in storage is just under 3.8 Tcf and at peak for the year as we expect the first withdrawal in the coming week (to be reported by EIA in the following week.) In March we had a 3.8 Tcf target and this has strayed between 3.8 and 3.9 all year.
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The ZLT was up 4.6% on the week last week.
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Questions and comments under The Wrap will be addressed in the Monday
Questions about the site may be directed to zmanalpha@gmail.com
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Have a good weekend,
Z
An official source in the Ministry of Energy announced that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is continuing the voluntary reduction of one million barrels per day, which began to be implemented in July 2023 AD, and was later extended until the end of December 2023 AD. Thus, the Kingdom’s production in December 2023 will be approximately 9 million barrels per day.
November 5th, 2023 at 10:12 am