01
Oct

Wrap – Week Ended 9/29/23

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Welcome to October. The ZLT was up 2.4% on the week last week in a yoyoing set of sessions to close out the third quarter. Look for pre quarterly report posts to begin in two weeks.

Free Stuff Last Week:

Holdings Watch:

  • We started adding to names again on Friday. 
    • We added to one one upstream Trade Only name
    • We opened a new Oil Service position. 
  • The blotter is updated. 

Questions and comments under The Wrap will be addressed in the Monday post. 

Questions about the site may be sent to zman@zmansenergybrain.com 

We're traveling and otherwise preoccupied this weekend but a couple of notable items from The Wrap table below are:

  1.  The basic 3-2-1 crack is down near the lowest levels of 2023 at just over $22 per barrel. Historically not a bad level but it may make throughput during the fall maintenance period a little deeper. 
  2. The Brent to WTI gap has greatly tightened in the last few weeks. We may see some pressure on exports from this but that correlation takes time to develop so we'll see. 
  3. Rigs and frac spreads were both down to the end the quarter. We expect a bump higher for oil rigs and frac spreads into 4Q. We're not sure yet on gas rigs but are not expecting significant further deteriorations. We expect price talk to be stable to our up slightly soon for our Oil Service holdings. 
  4. Note that speculators on ICE are ramping up their natural gas shorts and cutting their longs after a summer long to short peak. 
  5. Our EOS remains a bit over 3.8 Tcf.  Not the end of the world for the 2024 strip unless the strong-trending-super El Nino yields a no show of a winter.

Have a good weekend, Z.  

 

One Response to “Wrap – Week Ended 9/29/23”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    The Positions page will be updated tonight.

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