01
Jul
Wrap – Week Ended 07/01/23
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The ZLT was up 7.4% on the week last week, reversing the prior week's action on strong upstream and oil service movement with quarter end positioning and despite little in the way of commodity price recovery. Our modest solar segment wedge also performed reasonably well into quarter end.
Free Stuff In June
- The Wraps (always open),
- https://seekingalpha.com/article/4611274-smart-sand-stock-snd-underfollowed-gem
- We had an update call with the CFO and COO on Friday. See notes late in the day under the Friday post.
- https://seekingalpha.com/article/4611740-nextier-and-patterson-merger-creates-oil-service-player-with-discount-valuation
- https://seekingalpha.com/article/4612649-civitas-stock-enters-permian-basin-4-7-billion-reiterate-buy
Holdings Watch Last week:
- We added a new position in the Permian.
- We added to one of our oil service names.
- The blotter is updated
- A new holdings update will be posted on Sunday for quarter end.
A comments on The Wrap table below:
Oil:
- The weekly oil inventory report was better than expected driven by a new record low for this week of the year for net imports, restrained oil production, and a less egregious looking adjustment factor for the week. The Big 3 inventory count is about to move into modern low history territory.
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- CFTC - WTI physical speculator longs vs shorts down to a modern history low ratio of 1.7x. Note that this is all shorts. The longs are now where they were at the start of the year. The shorts have tripled their position. With 2H23 demand data to arrive soon it will be interesting to watch them cover.
- Cracks - The basic 3-2-1 remains well into the $30's. Positive for refining demand.
Natural Gas:
- The storage report was below Z4 and Street consensus.
- We remain on track for a near 3.8 Tcf EOS.
- Natural gas rigs fell again, down 6 to 124 vs 153 a year ago. Haynesville activity accounted for all of the dip.
- We will have a new Natural Gas Macro update early next week. We did note that April power burn easily scored another new monthly high as gas continues to take generation share in the face of overall weaker Us generation this year. From the upcoming gas macro slide show:
- The natural gas price bottoming process, that began in February, continues. We continue to view prices as over done to the downside.
Questions about the site may be directed to Zman@zmansenergybrain.com
Questions and comments under The Wrap will be addressed in the Monday post.
Have a good weekend,
Z
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