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Jun
Wrap – Week Ended 06/02/23
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Volatile week as focus shifted from the debt ceiling to the June Fed meeting and this weekend's OPEC+ meet and greet. The ZLT ended the week up 2.9% on the week with our oily and gassy upstream, oil services, and solar segment names outpacing their benchmarks.
Holdings Watch:
- We added more to one of our oily upstream positions.
- The blotter is updated.
This Week In Posts:
Questions and comments under The Wrap will be addressed in the Monday post.
Questions about the site may be directed to Zman@zmansenergybrain.com
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Opec-Plus: Cuts Talks Come to the Fore
https://www.energyintel.com/00000188-81d8-dd1b-abbe-9bd82e390000
June 3rd, 2023 at 12:51 pmTalks still going, have not seen a press conference time yet.
June 4th, 2023 at 9:18 amOPEC+ REACHES DEAL, EXTENDING PACT INTO 2024: DELEGATE – BBG
June 4th, 2023 at 10:33 amSaudi making additional voluntary cuts.
June 4th, 2023 at 10:34 amSome African countries, including Nigeria, appear to agree to lower baselines. This has been a sticking point overnight.
June 4th, 2023 at 10:35 amOPEC+ press conference link:
https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/multimedia/349.htm
June 4th, 2023 at 11:13 amre 6 – about to begin.
June 4th, 2023 at 11:25 amOPEC+ meeting comments:
Saudi to further voluntarily cut 1 mm bopd starting in July for a month and is extendable.
Rest of the 9 countries with voluntary cuts are extended through end of 2024.
June 4th, 2023 at 12:02 pmBaseline reduced 1.4 mm bopd.
Speaking to ensuring transparency.
Putting roadmap in place for 2025.
June 4th, 2023 at 12:10 pmhttps://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/7160.htm
June 4th, 2023 at 12:11 pmPress conference over:
35th OPEC/NonOPEC Meeting – June 4th, 2023
June 4th, 2023 at 1:01 pm1) All 9 countries that announced voluntary cuts in April 2023 agree to extend them through end 2024.
2) Saudi announces additional 1 mm bopd cut for the month of July. This may be extended as well. The “Saudi Lollipop”
3) OPEC+ production target is reduced by 1.4 mm bopd via baseline revisions. For 2024:
A) OPEC 10 production to be set at 24.994 mm bopd
A1) OPEC 10 production was 24.116 mm bopd in April (secondary sources)
B) Non-OPEC production level of 15.469
C) OPEC+ production levelto be 40.463 mm bopd
4) OPEC will be looking into Russia’s production numbers
5) OPEC+ to continue to meet every 6 months with JMMC continuing to meet every 2 months.
6) Focus on transparency as verified by secondary sources.
7) Setting up road map for how 2025 will be structured.
8) Next meeting November 26th.
Monday morning will be a good time to sell some covered calls
June 4th, 2023 at 3:51 pmThe Saudi oil minister is going after the oil shorts. The July additional voluntary cut that can be extended is directed at them and fulfills his promise to “watch out”. Saudis want/need higher prices and they see spec shorts as most of the problem for lower prices rather than actual demand weakness. They are also apparently not thrilled with Russia’s production exceeding promised levels.
June 4th, 2023 at 5:41 pmre 13 – he spoke to this during the press conference. He said it needs to be taken in context with everything else he said at the time. He said the extra 1 mm bopd for one month is precautionary.
June 4th, 2023 at 6:29 pmIf I’m Saudi Arabia, I’m funding Russian insurrection and Ukrainian forces to sabotage Russian oil infrastructure
June 4th, 2023 at 7:24 pm