Monday Morning – Natural Gas Macro Slide Show



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    In today's post please find:

    • The Week That Was (with position weighting update at quarter end),
    • The Five Things,
    • and some other odds and ends.

    In case you missed The Wrap

    Eco Data Watch: 

    • We get ISM manufacturing at 10 am EST (F = 47.3%, last read was 47.7%)
    • We get construction spending at 10 am EST (F = 0.0%, last read was -0.1%)

    The Week Ahead: 

    • Tuesday - Factory orders, job openings
    • Wednesday - ADP employment, trade balance, Services PMI, ISM Services, EIA Oil Inventories
    • Thursday - Jobless claims, PPI, EIA Natural Gas Storage,
    • Friday - Market closed for Good Friday. 

    In Today’s Post:

    1. Holdings Watch
    2. Commodity Watch
    3. The Week That Was
    4. Stuff We Care About Today - Natural Gas Macro, PTRA, VWDRY
    5. Odds & Ends


    Holdings Watch:

    ZLT (Zman Long Term portfolio)

    • Last Week’s Trades:
      • We added to ACDC at $11.34 early last week. 
    • ​The Blotter is updated.
    • The Positions page is updated.

    Commodity Watch:

    Crude oil rallied 9.3% to close at $75.67 last week.

    • Last week the EIA weekly was the fifth increasingly positive as weeklies go weekly with better throughput, tame production, super low net imports and a big pull on oil and gasoline stocks. Please see The Week That Was for more details.
    • OPEC+ Watch: On Sunday several members of OPEC+ announced a coordinated voluntary curtailment to run from May through year end 2023. So far we've seen releases from these members totaling 1.65 mm bopd (including Russia who has agreed to extend their previously announced 500,000 bopd cut, now being matched by Saudi at 500,000 bopd and others. In Mbopd:
      • Oman 40
      • Algeria 48
      • Kazakhstan 78
      • Kuwait 128
      • UAE 144
      • Iraq 211
      • Russia 500 (extension)
      • Saudi 500
    • This morning crude is trading up $5. 

    Natural gas fell 6.1% to close last week at $2.22.

    • Last week's storage was bigger than our number but smaller that the Streets. 
    • Look for a "flattish" report this week. We think we are essentially at trough with builds to come either this week or in the next few reports. 
    • Please see The Week That Was for more details.
    • This morning gas is trading down 15 cents. 

    Weather Watch: 

    • Last week:  Gas-Weighted Heating Degree Days (HDDs) came in at 135 vs 122 normal and 150 in the prior week.
    • This week's forecast:  This week, CPC predicts HDDs will plummet to 83 vs 109 normal.

      The Week That Was

      Stuff We Care About Today

      The Natural Gas Macro




        Other Stuff


        Other Other Stuff

        • PTRA - convertible note holder agreement finalized. 
        • VWDRY - 15 MW turbine installed in December for testing reached max 15 MW nominal power rating for the first time last week.  
        • VWDRY 1Q23 announced orders totaled 3.022 GW,
          • Vs announced 1Q22 orders of 2.179 GW and unannounced orders of 0.769 GW
          • Vs announced 4Q22 orders of 3.366 GW and unannounced orders of 0.827 GW.
          • We note this is the largest first quarter announced order run rate in over 5 years. 
        • Look for a Permian Players smid cap update soon. 
        • Look for a requested oil service name quick look soon.

        Odds & Ends

        Analyst Watch:

        • TBA in comments

        77 Responses to “Monday Morning – Natural Gas Macro Slide Show”

        1. 1
          zman Says:

          MGY is unhedged for oil.

        2. 2
          zman Says:

          CIVI is very lightly hedged for oil.

        3. 3
          zman Says:

          Analyst Watch

          SLCA – Barclays ups to Equal from Underweight, target $17. (shares $12.50 this am).

        4. 4
          zman Says:

          ENPH – another weekly update, announcing launch of IQ8 batteries in France, Netherlands, Switzerland.


          Company definitely highlighting Europe last several updates as they good on expanding European growth (last week highlighted Romanian micro capacity coming on line).

        5. 5
          zman Says:

          Analyst Watch:

          ENPH – MS initiates at Equalweight with $268 target (with stock at $211).

        6. 6
          zman Says:

          ACDC called up 9%. We will be speaking with them this week.

        7. 7
          zman Says:

          At equity open:

          WTI up $4.30, Brent up $4.50

          NG down 8 cents

        8. 8
          zman Says:

          Early Read on Thursday

          Consensus -20 Bcf (Reuters)
          Last Week -47 Bcf
          Last Year -24 Bcf
          5 Yr Avg unchanged

        9. 9
          zman Says:

          Analyst Watch

          EE – Wells stays Overweight, trims target from $31 to $29.

        10. 10
          zman Says:

          5% up morning to start, volumes are pretty light at the moment in E&P. Service a bit better.

        11. 11
          zman Says:

          Getting on a conference call, back in a bit.

        12. 12
          Zorgnak Says:

          Good Morning
          WTI Testing major resistance at 80 this morning.
          Brent COT

        13. 13
          zman Says:

          re 12 – morning Zorg, thanks, back shortly.

        14. 14
          Zorgnak Says:

          ZLT related ranked by % change sine the open.
          Relative volume for time of day right column

        15. 15
          zman Says:

          Sand having a good morning, SLCA, SND – interesting daily charts, especially SND.

        16. 16
          Zorgnak Says:

          NXT Extended after last week’s breakout, testing potential support.


        17. 17
          zman Says:

          re 16 – solars taking the day off this morning, may have been some general comments out of Morgan Stanley

        18. 18
          Zorgnak Says:

          CIVI Gap open to next higher supply at 72.62.

          65 Minute

        19. 19
          Zorgnak Says:


        20. 20
          Zorgnak Says:

          MGY Back to major acceptance at 23..
          Max supply level.


        21. 21
          zman Says:

          re 19 – thanks, the pattern has been to run up into and recently beyond earnings.

          They are set to beat earnings handily this quarter.

        22. 22
          zman Says:

          re 20 – thanks, literally no oil hedges. Today’s gap takes it above the 200 day. Not a big fan of gaps like this and volumes in the oily upstreams suggest bigger holders are not chasing on this kind of day. Me either but very much a top 2 holding here.

        23. 23
          zman Says:

          WTTR (unowned) in tomorrow’s post from a requested look last week.

        24. 24
          Zorgnak Says:

          Interesting. Tanker stocks like FRO and TK getting whacked.

        25. 25
          zman Says:

          re 24 – yeah, less barrels on the water.

        26. 26
          zman Says:

          No plans for adds to the portfolio or sales today. Still on a call.

        27. 27
          Zorgnak Says:

          #24 Meant to say TNK
          LNG names buoyant…

        28. 28
          zman Says:

          NEX announced their 1Q23 call date this morning for April 26th, late to announce the date for them but on time for their normal call date.

        29. 29
          Zorgnak Says:

          MGY First support around 22…Hard to see it get stretched more than that.

        30. 30
          Zorgnak Says:

          MGY A little more granular look…
          High 21’s looks interesting as likely support if it gets that far.
          65 Minute

        31. 31
          zman Says:

          Today is initiation day (post IPO) at AESI (unowned)

          Permian sand stock we reviewed here (and passed on for now),


          up just 2% amidst a sea of Buys.

        32. 32
          Zorgnak Says:

          Gap up in oily stocks testing/pausing at previous acceptance areas. Gap and go or gap and close?
          FANG (non ZLT)

        33. 33
          Zorgnak Says:

          WTI 81 is next supply/resistance.
          65 Minute

        34. 34
          zman Says:

          re 33 – pretty resilient action as these kind of events go.

          Wondering if the WH is preparing to add to the 2Q23 planned SPR sales now.

        35. 35
          Zorgnak Says:

          AESI Morning gap faded, then bought with some volume
          65 Minute…

        36. 36
          Zorgnak Says:

          #34 WH missed that trade…

        37. 37
          zman Says:

          Despite the 6% bump today, still inexpensive, still a big yielder on our numbers.

          At $72.75:
          Z4 Energy Research 2023 Cases TEV/EBITDA Implied Yield
          Sub Case ~ $70 oil, NGLs 40% of WTI, $4 NG 3.6x 9.4%
          Base Case ~ $80 oil, NGLs 40% of WTI, $5 NG 2.9x 12.8%
          Stretch Case ~ $100 oil, NGLs 40% of WTI, $7.50 NG 2.1x 19.6%

        38. 38
          nrgyman Says:

          RE 34: There has been plenty of speculation that this WH had no intention of refilling the SPR. Apparently they told SA that they would be buying back crude around $70 or less–but they did not do so. The WH could argue that they never said when, only offering the acceptable price at which they would act. When the Energy Sec recently said it could be years before they act it likely motivated SA to act on cutting production. Did the WH dissemble? Did they play OPEC+? Who knows but the visibility is not favorable.

        39. 39
          zman Says:

          re 38 – yeah, I recall the reports at the time re telling Saudi that. The April MOMR due out 4/13 will be an interesting read for demand thoughts.

        40. 40
          Skeptcl Says:

          Z, per your tweet last night on Granholm & the SPR–how can I get a Zman’s Energy cup?? 🙂 Do you sell them?

        41. 41
          zman Says:

          re 40 – I think we’ve got some stuff here:


        42. 42
          zman Says:

          OT – grabbing lunch, back in a bit.

        43. 43
          Skeptcl Says:


        44. 44
          zman Says:

          This was from Friday, other side of town from us. We got very lucky.

        45. 45
          zman Says:

          Analyst Watch

          NEX – Susquehanna trims from $10 to $8.90, fearing economic uncertainty in 2H23. Stays Neutral.

        46. 46
          zman Says:


        47. 47
          zman Says:

          Early Read on Oil Inventories: (Reuters consensus)
          Oil down 1.8 mm barrels
          Gasoline 1.4 mm barrels
          Distillates down 0.1 mm barrels

        48. 48
          zman Says:

          SPR released 0.4 mm barrels last week. First reduction in 11 weeks. Should be part of the congressionally mandated 26 mm barrel release during 2Q23.

        49. 49
          Anonymous Says:

          Re 44 What devastation. Unfortunate folks that had to endure that destruction. Very glad to hear you and the family are safe.

        50. 50
          Kyle Graffagnini Says:

          Kodiak Gas, compression services provider, files for $100M IPO
          Val Kennedy, SA News Editor
          (Seeking Alpha)
          Kodiak Gas Services (KGS), a provider of contract compression services for the oil and gas industry, has filed to raise around $100M through an initial public offering amid news that OPEC plans to cut production.
          Kodiak didn’t specify in its filing how many shares it intends to offer or the price, but indicated in its filing fee schedule that it was looking to raise $100M, a number that is likely a placeholder and subject to change, according to the filing.
          According to Renaissance Capital, the firm could seek to raise up to $350M.
          Lead bookrunners on the deal are Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan. Other bookrunners include Raymond James, RBC Capital, Barclays, BofA Securities, Truist Securities, TPH & Co., Comerica Securities, Fifth Third Securities, Regions Securities, Texas Capital Securities, AmeriVet Securities, Guzman & Co., R Seelaus & Co., and Siebert Williams Shank.
          Kodiak hopes to list its shares on NYSE under the symbol KGS. Funds associated with EQT are major investors in the company.

        51. 51
          zman Says:

          re 49 – yeah, crazy, thanks.

          re 50 – thanks much

        52. 52
          zman Says:

          Here, reading, shout if you need something.

        53. 53
          nrgyman Says:

          MV Pipeline key water permit vacated by Appeals Court:


        54. 54
          zman Says:

          re 53 – sheesh. EQT (unowned) was not expecting the pipe to be online before end of 2024 as it was (as per 10K) although they were using a 3Q24 startup for looking at basis.

        55. 55
          nrgyman Says:

          RE 53: This will further clamp the lid on Appa natgas growth. Should be natgas price supportive. Haynesville supportive. Natgas may not have an OPEC to support prices but they do have the US courts 🙂

        56. 56
          zman Says:

          re 55 – sad but true. Cartel of hollywood types as well with unintended consequences resulting in higher energy prices, greater use of coal.

        57. 57
          Zorgnak Says:

          DBMF has already closed out its Crude short position as of their Monday holdings update. This ETF tracks broad positioning across CTAs and is more evidence that they are giving up on the short oil trade.
          H/T Fernando Vidal

        58. 58
          zman Says:

          re 57 – heh.

        59. 59
          nrgyman Says:

          RE 57: Energy trader Marc Fisher was on CNBC today to comment on the OPEC+ move. While he was supportive of higher oil prices he was much more animated about natgas prices. He sees a big rally ahead in natgas prices. He says it is necessary to induce more natgas production to supply the growing LNG export trade.

          Today’s MVP ruling is not going to support that so the Haynesville should eventually see a resurgence once this overdone short trade is exhausted.

        60. 60
          Zorgnak Says:

          CHRD Rejecting previous major acceptance as too low. Nice volume…supply not showing up.
          Far upside target at 153.

        61. 61
          Zorgnak Says:

          VWDRY…Basing for a nice breakout.
          Currently trading above it’s previous short and longer term price/volume range.
          3 Day Chart

        62. 62
          Zorgnak Says:

          VWDDRY From another angle..Setting up for a possible longer term regime change.

        63. 63
          zman Says:

          re 160 – was $126 for our update on 3/23, now $142. At this level:

          Implied yield potential:

          Implied Yield Potential on Z4 Sub Case 10% assumes no buyback
          Implied Yield Potential on Z4 Base Case 13% assumes no buyback

          Implied Yield on Z4 Base with Repurchase 8% assumes current authorization exhausted

          Still inexpensive (TEV/EBITDA):

          Sub Case – $70 oil and $3 natural gas 3.4x

          Base Case – $80 oil and $5 natural gas 2.9x

        64. 64
          zman Says:

          re 61/62 – nice end to the quarter for orders, see comments bottom of post.

        65. 65
          nrgyman Says:

          COP +9% Plenty of big moves today among oil producers but this one stands out among the larger players. Unhedged. Large and growing LNG business not registering in the price. Lowest decline rate. High shareholder returns, though buyback is higher than some would like vs dividend.

          HES +8.3% Another larger name doing very well. Guyana is a monster for them.

        66. 66
          zman Says:

          Reuters data point to US LNG exports hit record in March. This aligns with our weekly data.

        67. 67
          zman Says:

          We have WTTR (unowned) in tomorrow’s post, also the early reads on oil and natural gas inventories, and a Gassy Players Liquids Rich update.

        68. 68
          zman Says:

          Beerthirty, back in a bit.

        69. 69
          Kyle Graffagnini Says:

          DENVER–(BUSINESS WIRE)– Civitas Resources, Inc.(CIVI) (“Civitas” or the “Company”) today announced that Hodge Walker has been appointed Chief Operating Officer, effective April 5, 2023. He will replace Matt Owens who has left the company.

          Chris Doyle, President and CEO, said, “On behalf of the Board of Directors and the Company, I am pleased to welcome Hodge to Civitas. With more than 25 years of industry experience, Hodge has a proven track record of successfully leading teams and driving a culture of operational excellence. I am confident he will help advance our already strong team and our commitment to safe, efficient, and responsible operations. Finally, I would like to thank Matt for the significant contributions he has made toward our success and wish him the best of luck in his future endeavors.”

          Mr. Walker added, “I am honored to join Civitas at such an exciting time in its history. I look forward to working with Chris and the talented team to build on our strong foundation of operational performance and safely deliver for all our stakeholders.”

          Mr. Walker most recently served as vice president of Chevron Corporation’s (“Chevron”) Rockies Business Unit, a position he held since October 2020 when Chevron(CVX) acquired Noble Energy, Inc. (“Noble”). Prior to joining Chevron(CVX), Mr. Walker served as Senior Vice President responsible for Noble’s U.S. onshore operations. He also served as a director of Noble Midstream GP and as Noble’s Vice President of West Africa and the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. Additionally, he served as Director of Strategic Planning, Environmental Analysis, and Reserves; managed Noble’s operated West Africa assets, non-operated international assets, and frontier business ventures; and was a member of the business development team. Prior to joining Noble in 2007, Mr. Walker held various positions of increasing importance at Amoco Corporation and BP America, Inc. He earned a BS and MS in Geology from Louisiana State University and completed the Harvard Advanced Management Program in 2018.

        70. 70
          Zorgnak Says:

          ACDC 14.38 Short term upside target and supply/resistance.
          65 Minute

        71. 71
          zman Says:

          CIVI – Former VP of CVX (unowned) Rockies division to be new COO.

        72. 72
          zman Says:

          re 69 – thanks.

        73. 73
          zman Says:

          re 70

          After the close, two more Form 4’s

          Director bought 5,000 shares at $12.57 on Friday.

          CEO bought 12,000 shares at $12.65, also Friday.

        74. 74
          zman Says:

          CRK to report May 3

        75. 75
          zman Says:

          Today’s post has been archived under Gas Macro for ease of access using the pull down menu at upper left.

        76. 76
          zman Says:


        77. 77
          zman Says:

          The name request review line is open.

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