Wrap – Week Ended 01/13/23



The ZLT was up 14.4% on the week last week with no changes to the portfolio. Both oily and gassy upstream names rebounded on stronger oil pricing on the back of China hopes and increased odds of a lighter Fed hike in February as friendlier inflation data emerged. Our oil service segment moved smartly higher as well (maintenance budgets in 2023 are not a bad thing for them). Lastly, our renewables wedges also performed better than we've seen in months as investors look ahead to 2022 headwinds shifting to 2023 tailwinds.

Holdings Watch:

Our high level per segment outlook for 4Q22 and 2023 was included in this post last week as part of a revamped 5 Things outlook.  4Q22 earnings season kicks off week after next and we'll have the first iteration of calendar of 70 plus owned and/or watched names next week.

A few comments on The Wrap Table below:

  1. Oil 
    • Cracks have recovered sharply in recent weeks, largely on the back of under-stored distillates and the weather related two week hit to refiner throughput. We anticipate a slightly deeper maintenance trough in 1Q23 but for full year throughput to tie or slightly exceed 2022's levels.
    • We expect modest changes to the OPEC MOMR next Tuesday with minimal change to the Call on 2023 OPEC.
    • Look for exports to normalize higher with the coming week's EIA report. Look for net imports to remain near or just above 2022's often range bottom setting lows in 2023 as the SPR release wanes.
    • The US SPR release has wound down with released volumes in 2023 to likely to be nothing like they were in 2022 (we hear the recent Admin chatter and see the threat as hollow). With imports unlikely to flood US shores and domestic production growing only modestly we anticipate a move lower in US commercial stocks after 1Q23 as inventories lose the false support of the SPR.
    • Another chart of interest:  Note the 2023 dot.  Hard to see last week's big Winter Storm Elliot related monster build, eh?
  2. Natural Gas
    • Record build for time of year. This was, if not entirely expected, not materially off the small draw consensus was looking for.
    • Regardless, storage is in good shape as we start the year.
    • We have long held $5 as our price deck for 2023 and continue to. Please see our macro post on 1/4 here. 

Questions and comments under The Wrap will be addressed in the Subscriber Mailbag section of the Tuesday post (markets are closed for MLK Monday).

Questions about the site may be directed to zman@zmansenergybrain.com

Housekeeping Watch:  Our subscription prices will be adjusted for the last couple of years of inflation on Monday. Existing subscriptions will not be impacted. 

Have a good weekend,



3 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 01/13/23”

  1. 1
    Crysball Says:

    The PEMEX theme song:



  2. 2
    zman Says:

    re 1 – does seem to be a theme.

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    The Tuesday post is up.

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