Thursday and Friday – Happy Thanksgiving



Happy Holidays - We will be in and out of pocket for today's short session. If you have questions please ask them and we will address them as family time permits. 

In today's post please find:

  • the oil inventory review (positive side of neutral),
  • the natural gas review (smaller than Street expected withdrawal (bigger than our own rough number) but also large for first pull of the season),
  • and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • No economic data release is scheduled Thursday or Friday.
  • US markets will close at 1 pm EST.

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. Oil Inventory Review 
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - Gassy Players Update
  5. Odds & Ends


Holdings Watch:   


Commodity Watch:

Crude oil fell $3.01 to close at $77.94 Wednesday, reversing lower on thoughts of just how threadbare the proposed G7 cap is as well as on spiking Covid cases in China. We viewed the EIA weekly as positive side of neutral with a larger than expected crude draw coming on flat production, higher throughput, and despite a big pop in imports. We don't see imports as moving sustainably higher and they are at the low end of the range on a net basis now. We do see this kind of report as indicative of the short/medium term as high throughput is matched against a withering SPR release into year end.  This morning oil is trading up $1.50+ early. 


Natural gas rallied $0.529 (7.8% and > 16% in the last 3 sessions) to close at $7.308 on Wednesday. The first withdrawal of the season was large relative to historical first builds and above our expectations but below consensus. Traders shrugged off the "miss" due to expectations of a broad swath of cold air in the U.S. in early December while also watching EU gas prices. We expect a smaller draw next week but also see storage as having peaked at 3,644 Bcf in the prior report which exactly ties the 2021 peak (please see the Natural Gas Storage Review section below). This morning gas is trading up slightly. 


Oil Inventory Review


Natural Gas Storage Review 


Stuff We Care About Today

Gassy Players Update - this post has been archived under "Gassy" for ease of access using the pull down menu at upper left. 

Other Stuff

  • Look for requested and owned name updates next week.

Odds and Ends

Analyst Watch:

  • TBA in comments

17 Responses to “Thursday and Friday – Happy Thanksgiving”

  1. 1
    Robert Miller Says:

    What about hydrogen? Saw where there is a company who can add bacteria to shut in wells and create hydrogen. There is infrastructure in places “gasoline stations”. There are auto companies that are producing autos that are run on hydrogen. Maybe not a pipe dream?

  2. 2
    Richard Webb Says:

    Do you have a recent Oily Players update? I like the Gassy Players Update format

  3. 3
    Zorgnak Says:

    Good Morning
    ZLT related ranked by % change….

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    re 1 – thanks, thoughts:

    – have not seen a biogenic solution that’s economic, happy to read about it if you have a link or company name.

    – legacy infrastructure and H2 generally don’t mix well. You can flow H2 in a CH4 (methane) line up to high %’s. I’ve not heard same for gasoline lines, would require retrofits, especially pumps, values, any burner tip (that includes home use with hydrogen supplanting NG. Can be done, just a consideration.

    – limited on the H2 auto side. There’s more CNG vehicles than fuel cell ones. Fuel cell has proven to run well but chick/egg on supply. NG is easier get and that’s not taking off well either.

    – we’ve done work on PLUG, BLDP, BE, and FCEL (all currently unowned) – BE looks promising. PLUG is made more economic by the recent IRA but you have to have cheap power. Their are primers on each in the pull down menu at upper left. Have not been involved in awhile as they’ve been underperforming, especially de facto leader PLUG.

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    re 2 – given they are generally in different plays we mainly stick to cheat sheet updates for each name. Used to do Bakken Players, Permian Players in that style. Recent consolidation in the Bakken makes that moot and Permians are more distinct now in my view so not a lot of point going with one that shows an LPI (unowned) and a FANG on the same page. We did do a Eagle Ford Players pre 3Q season and we do show CIVI vs PDCE (unowned) from time to time.

  6. 6
    Zorgnak Says:

    CHK Trying to breakout this morning…

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    re 3 – morning Zorg, thanks.

    ARRY – breaking out, ENPH and SHLS threatening.

    CIVI and MGY awake with the slight green in oil. Both reviewed post quarter earlier this week. Cheap and modestly cheap respectively.

    EE – threatening to really move soon.

    CHK and CRK

    SWN – tightening pennant breakout maaaayybeee forming.

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    Analyst Watch – Goldman with tweaks this morning

    MGY – $30 upped to $32 – stays Buy

    AR – $48 to $49 – stays Buy

    SWN – $8.25 to $8.50 – stays Neutral

    FANG – $165 to $175 – stays Buy

    RRC – Trims from $34 to $33 – says Sell (this
    almost always the sign of a pair trade with these guys)

    CRK – ups from $14 to $15, stays Sell (same thought)

    CHK – ups from $117 to $120, stays Buy

  9. 9
    Zorgnak Says:

    NFE Broke out of its previous value range last week. Support at 50.

  10. 10
    Denise Says:

    BBC clip on Germany’s first LNG terminal built in 200 days. Says it will supply 8% of the countries needs and they are starting 5 more terminals at a cost of $6 billion. 200 days speaks to pretty amazing German efficiency.


  11. 11
    Zorgnak Says:

    OT Non ZLT related
    GTLS appears to have made the turn off support.
    Next minor supply at 143

  12. 12
    zman Says:

    re 10 – their need/urgency speak to why we are in EE and NFE.

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    ENPH – poised.

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    Primary Vision frac count overnight hit 300. This has long been our thoughts on near term max (2022 max), with possible as much as 10% growth over average 2022 in 2023 or 320 to 330 ish top next year.

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    Closed the week out up 2.4% on the week.

    Have a good one.

    The Wrap will be out on Saturday.


  16. 16
    crysball Says:

    Europe fears its industries will jet to the U.S. as energy costs force plant closures……in particular energy intensives……….steel & glass makers, fertilizer (anhydrous ammonia).


    Am unaware of any specific examples.

  17. 17
    crysball Says:

    Fun fFacts:
    US ETHANE CONSUMPTION is 2,000,000 bpd.
    The new Shell Ethane cracker will consume 96,000bpd at full operating capacity……..which is approx. 7 months away


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