Wrap – Week Ended 11/11/22



The ZLT was up 4.2% on the week last week aided by strength in oily and gassy upstream names (despite weaker oil and gas prices), strength in oil service, and was aided by strength in the small renewables wedge of the portfolio (big wind announcements in MENA and CA's net metering changes helped plus more realization that the IRA tailwind has not impacted results yet).  Our core positions are fairly close to or are hitting new all time highs while forward valuations remain more than reasonable on our $80 and $5 2023 Base Case and prices are, despite the YTD/multi year runs, well below our 12 month upside targets.

Some of Free Stuff Can Be Seen Here.

Last Week's Free Pieces:

Holdings Watch:

We are 95% of the way through 3Q22 energy earnings season with nearly 70 names reported so far. Next week look for more So Far This Quarter pieces and post quarter cheat sheet updates starting with the Gassy Players (liquids rich) Update followed by our holdings from biggest to smallest.

For big picture learnings from the quarter just past please see The Five Things in each Monday post.

Questions about the site may be directed to zman@zmansenergybrain.com 

Questions and comments under The Wrap will be addressed in the Subscriber Mailbag section of the Monday post. 


Thank You Veterans (and thank you dad (Korea) and we miss you pop (WWII - Europe).

Have a great weekend, 



8 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 11/11/22”

  1. 1
    zman Says:




  2. 2
    crysball Says:

    The ‘CATCH-22’ of increasing renewables……it increases variability, when the Sun doesn’t shine and/ or the Wind doesn’t blow……thus requiring larger generating reserves, which requires more fossil fuel backup.

    US West faces power reliability issues from growing use of renewables


  3. 3
    zman Says:

    re 2 – Thoughts

    – it increases variability without storage.

    – but adding more renewable generation capacity does not in and of itself increase need for increasing baseload. That is, if you leave baseload alone. However, they’re retiring coal and nuclear too quickly for the size of the adds.

    – if coal capacity is retired then natural gas is the natural choice to supplement.

    – the headline is click bait and dishonest in that it blames renewables for variability when the real problems are – very little west of Rockies natural gas production, limited ability to import natural gas, and retirement of nuclear capacity.

    By the way, as of last week, Pac Storage was 15% below the 5 year average. No frac, no new pipes = good luck.

    The author, after using that headline does include these comments in the story:

    “Over the next decade, WECC said entities in the West plan to retire nearly 26 gigawatts (GW) of mostly coal and natural gas-fired resources, and build close to 80 GW of mostly solar, wind, and battery storage.”

    “WECC, however, noted that reliability through 2025 increased in the latest assessment compared with last year.”

    We’re an all of the above shop – all things in balance.

  4. 4
    Skipton Says:

    et re 2 thé additional problem for wind and solar is that since the utilisation factor is only 25 to 30 % at best you need 3 tô4 times the total capacity compared to a base load generator for equivalency so for example 80Gw of renewables is the equivalent of 20GW base load

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    re 4 – Right, you can’t retire one to one or close to it on nameplate. Renewables, including hydro, are not baseload – they can resemble it with attached storage. But they’re not designed to be. Adding renewables on top of the existing baseload capacity is not the problem. Retiring coal and nuclear too quickly is.

  6. 6
    Skipton Says:

    r5. i wonder what the cost is when you have to have 4 X renewable name plate capacity plus the acompanied storage to match the equivalent base load capacity

  7. 7
    Nick Says:

    Happy weekend everyone! Despite a volatile trading week (looking at you natgas), I am feeling super confident about my decision to invest in energy equities instead of cryptocurrency.

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    re 6 – pre supply chain the cost per kwh was in rapid decline, halted, back up a bit now. As noted kwh not the same from intermittent to baseload. Vestas had some good charts on this awhile back before prices started tipping higher, especially certain turbine parts and blade ASPs. I can dig up if you like.

    re 7 – ok that’s funny.

Leave a Reply

Zman's Energy Brain ~ oil, gas, stocks, etc… is is proudly powered by Wordpress
Navigation Theme by GPS Gazette