Wrap – Week Ended 10/28/22



Two weeks of the 3Q22 energy earnings season are in the bag. For us that's 26 names on our list of 73 this quarter. Last week we had detailed comments on: RRC, HAL, VLO, HLX, EPNPH, RES, NEX, QS, NOVA, CLB, EQTY PTEN, OII, ARR, FSLR, SLCA, PXD, and SWN.

  • So far so good in oil service with tailwinds noted in a number of segments (U.S. frac and sand, offshore, Middle East).
  • NGL pricing proved a little tricky for sellside 3Q22 modeling for both liquids rich gassy names and some oily names with large NGL components with a number of names sporting fairly wide EBITDA misses.
    • This is a hiccup and was well absorbed with still solid FCF, further leverage reduction, and boosted buybacks.
  • Large cap independents continue to point to maintenance or maintenance plus programs for 2023. Service inflation commentary continues to range from 10 to 20%.
  • The few renewables that have reported to date have been more of a mixed bag with ENPH a strongly positive quarter and outlook and FSLR a miss and guide low.
  • Look for a fresh edition of So Far This Quarter in the Monday post.
  • We have another 27 names (owned or names of interest) reporting in the coming week.
  • We have our first post quarterly report call with a frac name on Monday - look for notes there before the Monday close.

Holdings Watch:

  • The ZLT ended up 4.8% on the week last week.
  • Last Week’s Trades:  Busy week last week. 
    • 10/24/22 - RRC - We added a Trading Only position in RRC at $26.64.
    • 10/24/22 - OII – We doubled up our position taken last week at average $10.22 yielding an average cost of $10.01.
    • 10/25/22 - ENPH - We added to our position in ENPH at $272 during the call. 
    • 10/26/22 - LILMW – We more than doubled our LILMW position on the Saudi news at $0.17.
    • 10/26/22 - NEX - We added to our position in NEX at $10.72. 
    • 10/27/22 - NEX - Follow on add to NEX, same reasoning as yesterday, better price at $9.98 today. 
    • 10/28/22 - SND – We added to our Trading Only position in SND at $1.90 during the SLCA call.
    • 10/28/22 - SLCA - We added to our position in SLCA today at $14.00.
    • 11/28/22 - OII – We sold our recently entered OII position for average $13.12, up 31% to our average cost. 
  • Full descriptions in the updated Trade Blotter.

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    6 days a week since 2006. All energy, all the time. 

    Questions and comments under The Wrap will be addressed in the Monday post.

    Questions about the site may be directed to zman@zmansenergybrain.com

    Have a good weekend, 


    2 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 10/28/22”

    1. 1
      Zorgnak Says:

      WTI closed just below the value range highs on Friday…Trading slightly up at 88.06 Sunday evening.
      Nat Gas Remains in a downtrend with probable swing lows last week. Fridays chart showing key resistance at around 6.68.Trading up this evening 6.26% to 6.03 at the moment.

    2. 2
      Zorgnak Says:

      XLE Energy sector ETF attempting to consolidate near the previous major cycle highs in June. Short term support at 87.71. More major support at 84.48.
      OIH Extremely extended last week at previous supply and June cycle highs. Near support at major acceptance at 284.76.
      XOP Broke above it’s value range highs last week but also scored a DeMark exhaustion setup on the daily time frame. Looking at least some consolidation now around 147-148

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