Wrap – Week Ended 10/14/22



Mixed bag of a week for the broad markets after inflation numbers disappointed yet again. Oil retreated after the OPEC monthly cut forecast demand and to a lessor extent non OPEC supply growth a week after the OPEC+ 2 mm bopd quota (~ 1 mm bopd actual) production cut. The ZLT was off nearly 5% following a 12% bump higher in the previous week. We are on the cusp of earnings season and our latest calendar can be found in the Z4 Calendar (3Q22) link to the left.

Holdings Watch: 

Questions and comments under The Wrap will be addressed in the Monday post.

Comments on The Wrap Table below:


  1. Prices retreated on inflation fears and the OPEC month forecast shave. OPEC still sees demand up 2.6 mm bopd rising a further 2.35 mm bopd in 2023 (far exceeding pre Covid levels) as per:
  2. OPEC also cut their view on Non OPEC supply and it stands below the initial forecast from July.
  3. Cracks are exceedingly strong. Look for a shallow and short fall refiner maintenance season.
  4. Active frac spreads are at 295, tying the peak for 2022.  We have been expecting a pre Thanksgiving peak near 300 and then a rest of year pull back and this appears to be in the offing now.
  5. We get off the SPR sauce in November.

Natural Gas:

  1. The injection was inline with Street and modestly below our range.
  2. We see injections as having peaked for the year.
  3. Look for a +95 to +105 Bcf injection this coming week.
  4. Our 3.425 Tcf midpoint estimate is now our 2022 point EOS estimate. Depending on weather we could still see close to the high end of our range at 3.65 Tcf but it appears unlikely.
  5. LNG output is set to rise in two weeks by Cove Point's 0.8 Bcfgpd and by a further ~ 2.0 Bcfgpd from Freeport at some point in November.

Have a good rest of the weekend,



8 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 10/14/22”

  1. 1
    Zorgnak Says:

    XLE Constructive looking chart. Trading in the upper end of it’s current value range in a very weak market. Above all major moving averages. Demand volume positive in multiple time frames…

    65 Minute Near support at 78.78. Resistance/breakout levels at 83.59

  2. 2
    Zorgnak Says:

    OIH Consolidating at the upper end of it’s value range. Tested 200 MA last week. Trading above 50 Ma Positive demand volume in multiple time frames in a very weak market..
    65 Minute Short term support/resistance 233/251.

  3. 3
    Nick Says:

    I believe this upcoming week has SLB releasing earnings Friday morning, any other related energy releases this week?

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    re 3 –


  5. 5
    zman Says:

    re 3 – BKR, TSLA, LBRT, SLB this week.

    We have 16 on the calendar for the following week and 71 on the calendar in total.

  6. 6
    Zorgnak Says:

    Daily…Range bound after breaking the recent downtrend…Support/Resistance 82/89

    Nat Gas…Low volume consolidation at previous acceptance (6.56)for the past two weeks.
    Resistance above at 6.74-6.85. No visible support to my eye…Demand volume weak.

  7. 7
    Zorgnak Says:

    Broad Market Thursday reversal at previous acceptance at 3550. Rejected at 3723, first resistance on Friday. Those are the two levels of interest for me going into Monday.

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    re 6 – bouncing tonight a bit, lot of big OPEC players voicing unity last few hours.

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