Wrap – Week Ended 08/19/22


We're traveling this weekend so this will be brief. The ZLT ended the week down 3.5% on the week, backing off from the prior Friday's high of year level, as the smaller but now more impactful renewables and oil services wedges of the portfolio took a breather relative to modest ups for most segments of traditional energy.

Of note, heating oil prices continue to move up on low, low inventory levels, supporting the basic 3-2-1 crack as we head towards fall.  Also, it's going to be an expensive winter all around as EU prices and somewhat low U.S. natural gas stocks are supportive strong strip pricing. We continue to see the coming shoulder as a dip add opportunity for us in our gassy names.

Free Stuff Last Week:

  • This piece on PFHC (and thereby USWS) was read by very few.

Holdings Watch:

Questions and comments under The Wrap will be addressed in the Monday post.

Questions about the site may directed to zman@zmansenergybrain.com or zmanalpha@gmail.com

Have a good weekend,



12 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 08/19/22”

  1. 1
    zman Says:


    “Oil is going to get more expensive,” he says simply. “We are reaching the end of where we can keep increasing supply.”

    I worked for Tim in the late 90s for a little ibank he set up. 18 months of painful if priceless education after he left Parker and Parsley which merged with Mesa (T Boone) to become PXD.

    Smart guy.


  2. 2
    Nick Says:

    Here’s a WSJ piece this group might enjoy:


    Developers have in recent years abandoned at least two multibillion-dollar pipeline projects in the Northeast after facing prolonged fights across several government agencies. The costs developers incur fighting regulatory and court challenges can be enough to spur some to abandon projects, said Chris Treanor, a lawyer at Akin Gump who advises natural-gas producers.

    Legal and regulatory battles have slowed renewable-energy projects. Henrik Andersen, chief executive of the wind-turbine maker Vestas Wind Systems A/S, said the permitting process for wind projects can take four to six years.

  3. 3
    Zorgnak Says:

    Crude Oil
    WTI Looks near or past the oversold bottom on the daily and weekly time frames. Short term Demand volume beginning to turn up. Hedge Fund/CTA short interest up to 16%. Major acceptance is higher at 92.64.
    Weekly Reversal bar on extreme oversold setup.
    Daily Multiple tests of support along with WTI. Trading back in it’s value range

  4. 4
    Zorgnak Says:

    Nat Gas Consolidation at 52 week highs.
    65 Minute 4th recent test of these levels.

  5. 5
    Zorgnak Says:

    XLE Rejecting major long term acceptance as too low. Demand volume positive in multiple time frames (weekly, daily, intraday). Relative strength vs the broad market.

    XOP Attempting to breakout from heavy congestion/supply. Demand volume supports the move.
    65 Minute
    Tight consolidation at breakout point, 143.63. ST support at 138.30

  6. 6
    Zorgnak Says:

    OIH Slow motion rejection of major acceptance and long term price/volume base. Watching for a break above 241 into the low volume zone for a move to 255 next, if/when. Demand volume still sketchy/inconsistent in all time frames.
    65 Minute
    4 weeks of consecutive higher lows leading to the current consolidation below breakout levels…

    Break of the long term price/volume base with 255 as major resistance/supply on the next leg up. Very low volume off the bottom..

  7. 7
    Zorgnak Says:

    Solar broke above major resistance into it’s previous long term value range on strong demand volume. 200% above average for the Manchin news week. Range bound trading with an upward bias now.
    Looking for support around 83.43 +-. Note low volume zone below which has been rejected as too low, so far. Can work in both directions if profit taking volume continues and price breaks below 82.65 or so…
    65 Minute
    Previously untested acceptance at 83.75 is a short term area of interest to gauge profit taking.

  8. 8
    Anonymous Says:

    #7 TAN Correct 65 Minute chart (hopefully)
    65 Minute chart in #7 is the daily chart..

  9. 9
    Zorgnak Says:

    Broad Market
    S&P Futures
    Daily. After a very strong breadth thrust tested heavy supply, the 200 MA and the major downtrend line last week demand volume and breadth is rolling over now. Price retracement looking to test lower with 4164-4145 as key support. 4252 near resistance on any bounce. Note low volume zone below the acceptance range around the 4145 CHVN. Rapid price movement in that zone, if/when.
    65 minute
    Watching 4206 to gauge strength of retracement. Below that level I would expect a test of key support levels to come into play.

  10. 10
    Zorgnak Says:

    Noting that sentiment after this big run remains remarkably bearish. There was a small amount of short covering by traders and now short positioning has become even more extreme.
    Among non-commercial traders short bets area as negative as they were in 2020.
    Helene Meisner runs a weekly poll of traders that vote which direction the next 100 points in the S&P go. The negative votes were the highest since the poll began..

  11. 11
    Nick Says:

    Thanks Zorg!

  12. 12
    Zorgnak Says:

    #11 🙂

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