Wrap – Week Ended 8/12/22



We're traveling this weekend so I'll keep this brief.  It was a solid week with the ZLT, our portfolio of 27 names, up 12.4% on the week and now 41% on the year (someone asked) which is HOY.  We have one week of 2Q22 earnings season left, and are now through 66 reports on our calendar of 73 companies owned or of interest. Things have gone pretty well with the majority reporting better than expected results on price and a few key names reporting better results on volumes as well. Operating costs for the upstream names have generally edged higher although this pales in comparison with commodity price gains. Most are not bolstering hedges. Almost everyone who was in "maintenance mode" still is. Those that raised volume guidance did so on well performance, it was small, and it's not some sort of move to get a lot rigs running. The expected Capex budget inflation has been fairly tame. In the renewables wedge of the portfolio the abrupt disclosure and subsequent passage of the IRA Bill has helped to sharply rally a group that was already well into the process of bottoming.

Free Stuff Last Week:

Holdings Watch:

  • HPK – We sold our remaining HPK position at average just over $21, up 57% to our remaining position cost with nearly half previously sold between $28 and $37 in late spring.
  • We added to off the beaten track E&P CRGY at $13.81.
  • We added to a Sand name and a Service name during the week as well.
  • The blotter is updated

Questions under The Wrap will be addressed in the Subscriber Mailbag section of the Monday post.

Questions about the site may be directed to zmanalpha@gmail.com or zman@zmansenergybrain.com

Promised to be brief but here's a notable progression.

Have a good weekend,


20 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 8/12/22”

  1. 1
    zman Says:


  2. 2
    zman Says:

    re 1 – no meaningful impact our names.

  3. 3
    Nick Says:

    Some weekend reading from WSJ, link should help non-subscribers get past pay wall:


  4. 4
    Nick Says:


  5. 5
    Nick Says:


  6. 6
    Anonymous Says:

    Thanks Nick

  7. 7
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Futures
    Broke out from consolidation just below major resistance/supply. Passed through the relative low volume supply zone on strong short term demand volume. Now testing increased supply and the descending 200 Ma.
    As the catalyst for the break was the reduced inflation expectations I thought it interesting to note the correlation between gasoline futures and the S&P. If inflation is driving market and oil drives inflation…..
    Gasoline vs S&P
    Gasoline Futures
    Better than 50/50 it breaks higher, back into it’s previous value range, IMO.
    Gasoline vs S&P

  8. 8
    Zorgnak Says:

    Crude Oil still looking for balance around previous acceptance at 92,defined resistance at 94 (Value Area Lows)..Short term demand volume weak.
    Weekly Still very much an ongoing major uptrend. Extreme oversold setup at the trend line.

  9. 9
    Zorgnak Says:

    Short term breadth surging…
    % of S&P stocks > their respective 50 MAs in June was Zero.. Last week it was > 80%. This week at 90%.

    CTA exposure has just now gone positive. Longer term trend followers. Energy sector fits that well now.

  10. 10
    Zorgnak Says:

    JPM’s Kate Gandolfo

    Vol-targeting funds and Risk Parity funds are buying $2 to $4bn of stocks/day.

    CTAs could snap up as much as $200bn of stocks if market stays buoyant.

    CTAs would turn “max long” on stocks by Sept. on 6 and 12-month momentum buy signal

  11. 11
    Zorgnak Says:

    XOP Near the end of the majority of supply…Demand volume positive in multiple time frames.152 next upside target on the next leg up, if/when crude can find some balance.
    XLE Weekly
    Energy Sector longer term uptrend continues with demand volume in gear for higher…
    OIH Weekly
    Consolidation above long term price/volume base. Break above last week’s highs with continued demand volume strength would be interesting. Wide low volume zone above to 255 on the daily time frame. (next post)

  12. 12
    Zorgnak Says:

    OIH Trying to break above the wide longer term acceptance area and doing a pretty good job of it the last couple of days. OIH showing relative strength vs the market in general and improved demand volume…

  13. 13
    Zorgnak Says:

    TAN Headed back to the pre-political malfunction levels around 96.48
    Weekly A break above 98.50 on a weekly closing basis will be interesting, if/when.

  14. 14
    Zorgnak Says:

    USO Oil ETF…Showing balanced trading now.
    Noise between the value area high/low.
    UNG Nat Gas ETF…Broke tight consolidation and value area highs last week. Previous swing highs. Demand volume supportive of higher..

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    thanks Nick, thanks Zorg

  16. 16
    Zorgnak Says:

    #15 Going to be some nice charts in the Zman portfolio this week.

  17. 17
    zman Says:

    re 16 – will be interesting to see some # increases for names like PFHC this week.

  18. 18
    Anonymous Says:

    What is CTA?

  19. 19
    Zorgnak Says:


  20. 20
    Anonymous Says:


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