16
Apr
Wrap – Week Ended 04/15/22
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Modest 4% up week for the ZLT. We're on holiday with the interns and wish you and yours a happy Easter and/or long market holiday.
Energy earnings season kicks off this week. Please see the Calendar here.
Free Stuff Last Week:
Last Week's Trades:
- We added an LNG play to the portfolio.
- We sold a little over 20% of our HPK position up 130% to our average cost.
Notable Numbers/Thoughts from the Wrap Table Below:
- Oil
- Crack spreads have been exceptionally strong. Look for a move to pandemic period refiner throughput highs in the next few weeks.
- Product exports, though not shown in the tables set best level highs since 2018 for distillates and gasoline in the last 3 weeks.
- Domestic implied gasoline demand remains weak.
- Distillate stocks remain severely under-stored and are set to be a price supportive factor next fall. Heating oil is setting up to be quite pricey next winter.
- Natural Gas
- The 12 month strip is at $7.25. Yeah, that's just, wow.
- While we see natural gas as overdone to the upside near term there are several supporting elements beyond low storage driving prices including a massive spec short position, a much higher than expected constant big for U.S. LNG, and production that has so far this year failed to advance and seen significant hiccups beyond freeze offs YTD.
- Expect volatility in the shoulder (not all of it to the upside).
- Not in the table below but our initial 2022 peak storage range has been established at 3,200 to 3,650 Bcf.
Questions and comments under The Wrap will be addressed in the Subscriber Mailbag section of the Monday post.
Questions about the site may be directed to zman@zmansenergybrain.com
Housekeeping Watch:
- Did you know a subscription to Zman's Energy Brain may be tax deductible for you? Ask you tax provider to confirm.
- We have not instituted a pricing increase since 2006. Prices will rise May 1, 2022 for new subscribers. Existing subscribers will see no change.
Have a good weekend,
Z
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Test
April 16th, 2022 at 2:16 pmNext week’s build looking north of 30 Bcf.
Compares to 42 Bcf builds for year ago and the five year average.
April 16th, 2022 at 2:29 pmCharts of Interest..
Most ZLT oil stocks have broken out already and are moving..
Here are a few Non ZLT stocks that are points of interest.
ROCC Breakout on Thursday on high volume. Support 37.72
April 16th, 2022 at 2:58 pmhttps://postimg.cc/9DdCHyYv
COP setting up for potential breakout above 102.42.
https://postimg.cc/TK9Fc09Y
SLB Breakout above 43.88 (OIH broke out last week).
https://postimg.cc/TK9Fc09Y
LBRT
April 16th, 2022 at 3:17 pmWeekly…At multi-year highs. Testing Heavy supply.
https://postimg.cc/r0Wv5kZ7
PUPM Also testing heavy supply.
Weekly
https://postimg.cc/2VP9FJhD
NEX room to run to heavy supply at 13
https://postimg.cc/0r6gqhYT
Clean Energy sold at major supply..
April 16th, 2022 at 3:47 pmPBW ETF
Weekly
https://postimg.cc/xX7WFR7v
Daily Demand volume negative in multiple times frames. Potential support at 57, Value Area Lows, then at 55, previous acceptance.
https://postimg.cc/4Hm6Mzjc
Solar turned back at supply..
April 16th, 2022 at 3:54 pmWeekly
https://postimg.cc/CnGhwtyp
Daily..Demand volume negative…Testing near support/Value Area lows…
https://postimg.cc/hz46X57q
XLE Big cap broke out last week and followed through. Demand volume positive in all time frames.
April 16th, 2022 at 3:58 pmDaily
https://postimg.cc/HjqzKNss
PEMEX continues to demonstrate its GROSS INEPTITUDE and lack of operational safety!
Mexico’s Pemex battles fire at Salina Cruz refinery
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/mexicos-pemex-battles-fire-salina-cruz-refinery-2022-04-16/C
April 16th, 2022 at 7:59 pmPEMEX has had 3 fires in the last 9 months at their MEXICAN REFINERIES……one at a Northern Mexico Refinery in November 2021, an this is the second fire at Salinas Cruz, the earlier one was in August 2021.
Of course this doesn’t count the 2 fires on the PEMEX upstream side one on an offshore platform that killed 5, and another undersea adjacent to an offshore platform.
April 16th, 2022 at 8:28 pmCrude New Normal….Current value range 100-115.
April 17th, 2022 at 5:46 pmTrading at 107 this evening..Demand volume positive in all time frames.
Daily
https://postimg.cc/cKhNtCwb
Nat Gas bid 7.50…do I hear 8?
Weekly
https://postimg.cc/14Lbtwbz
WTI > $107
NG > $7.50
April 17th, 2022 at 7:29 pmS&P Futs…Not much support until sub 4200….
https://postimg.cc/Fkb3JpMj
Demand volume and breadth negative in all time frames.
April 17th, 2022 at 8:10 pm