Wrap – Week Ended 04/15/22



Modest 4% up week for the ZLT. We're on holiday with the interns and wish you and yours a happy Easter and/or long market holiday.

Energy earnings season kicks off this week. Please see the Calendar here. 

Free Stuff Last Week:

Last Week's Trades:

  • We added an LNG play to the portfolio.
  • We sold a little over 20% of our HPK position up 130% to our average cost.

Notable Numbers/Thoughts from the Wrap Table Below:

  1. Oil
    1. Crack spreads have been exceptionally strong. Look for a move to pandemic period refiner throughput highs in the next few weeks.
    2. Product exports, though not shown in the tables set best level highs since 2018 for distillates and gasoline in the last 3 weeks.
    3. Domestic implied gasoline demand remains weak.
    4. Distillate stocks remain severely under-stored and are set to be a price supportive factor next fall. Heating oil is setting up to be quite pricey next winter.
  2. Natural Gas
    1. The 12 month strip is at $7.25. Yeah, that's just, wow.
    2. While we see natural gas as overdone to the upside near term there are several supporting elements beyond low storage driving prices including a massive spec short position, a much higher than expected constant big for U.S. LNG, and production that has so far this year failed to advance and seen significant hiccups beyond freeze offs YTD.
    3. Expect volatility in the shoulder (not all of it to the upside).
    4. Not in the table below but our initial 2022 peak storage range has been established at 3,200 to 3,650 Bcf.

Questions and comments under The Wrap will be addressed in the Subscriber Mailbag section of the Monday post.

Questions about the site may be directed to zman@zmansenergybrain.com 

Housekeeping Watch:

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Have a good weekend,



12 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 04/15/22”

  1. 1
    zman Says:


  2. 2
    zman Says:

    Next week’s build looking north of 30 Bcf.

    Compares to 42 Bcf builds for year ago and the five year average.

  3. 3
    Zorgnak Says:

    Charts of Interest..
    Most ZLT oil stocks have broken out already and are moving..
    Here are a few Non ZLT stocks that are points of interest.

    ROCC Breakout on Thursday on high volume. Support 37.72
    COP setting up for potential breakout above 102.42.
    SLB Breakout above 43.88 (OIH broke out last week).

  4. 4
    Zorgnak Says:

    Weekly…At multi-year highs. Testing Heavy supply.
    PUPM Also testing heavy supply.
    NEX room to run to heavy supply at 13

  5. 5
    Zorgnak Says:

    Clean Energy sold at major supply..
    Daily Demand volume negative in multiple times frames. Potential support at 57, Value Area Lows, then at 55, previous acceptance.

  6. 6
    Zorgnak Says:

    Solar turned back at supply..
    Daily..Demand volume negative…Testing near support/Value Area lows…

  7. 7
    Zorgnak Says:

    XLE Big cap broke out last week and followed through. Demand volume positive in all time frames.

  8. 8
    crysball Says:

    PEMEX continues to demonstrate its GROSS INEPTITUDE and lack of operational safety!

    Mexico’s Pemex battles fire at Salina Cruz refinery


  9. 9
    crysball Says:

    PEMEX has had 3 fires in the last 9 months at their MEXICAN REFINERIES……one at a Northern Mexico Refinery in November 2021, an this is the second fire at Salinas Cruz, the earlier one was in August 2021.

    Of course this doesn’t count the 2 fires on the PEMEX upstream side one on an offshore platform that killed 5, and another undersea adjacent to an offshore platform.

  10. 10
    Zorgnak Says:

    Crude New Normal….Current value range 100-115.
    Trading at 107 this evening..Demand volume positive in all time frames.
    Nat Gas bid 7.50…do I hear 8?

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    WTI > $107

    NG > $7.50

  12. 12
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Futs…Not much support until sub 4200….

    Demand volume and breadth negative in all time frames.

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