Wrap – Week Ended 04/01/22



The ZLT ended the week down 1.2%, easing slightly after the prior week's 10% pop, as oil retreated modestly on the U.S. SPR release news and OPEC+ stayed the course of monthly increased quotas (falling further behind quota in the process).  Natural gas continued to churn higher counter-seasonally on demand concerns even as we entered the shoulder and saw the first build of the injection season. Several of our upstream and oil service names recorded 52 weeks highs.  Renewables continued to round higher from their recent bottoming with several of our solar and wind tied names putting in their best levels of 2022 in the close of 1Q.

Free Stuff Last Week: None.

Holdings Watch:

Numbers of Note from The Wrap table below: 

  1. Oil
    1. Crack spreads remain exceptionally strong and refiner throughput hit another 2022 high despite this normally being the spring maintenance season. Look for a move to pandemic period highs in the next several weeks.
    2. The Speculative CFTC net long position eased back from near record 2022 territory but remains in what we view as increased volatility territory (big moves on small news items).
    3. Last week's EIA oil inventory weekly was fairly neutral.
      1. Throughput hit a new high.
      2. Net imports remain near range lows.
      3. U.S. oil production was reported as edging up 0.1 mm bopd for the first time in 10 weeks, but is still below where it started the year and is off 1.4 mm bopd relative to the pre Covid 2020 peak and plummet.
    4. SPR release comments can be found in last Thursday's post. We have multiple doubts about the system's ability to supply 1 mm bopd for weeks let along months on end.
    5. Street consensus for 2022 is now $90.40. The stocks are discounting something less.
  2. Natural Gas
    1. The first build of the storage season was in line with expectations.
    2. Next week we expect a 20+ Bcf withdrawal on higher heating demand and strong exports.
      1. LNG exports set a new weekly record last week after setting a new daily record last Saturday.
    3. Storage levels troughed just below our long held end of season range and are more than price supportive of our current price deck.
    4. Street consensus for 2022 is now $4.00.  While we view natural gas prices as being ahead of themselves near term gassy equities are by no means discounting the current 2022-23 strip.

Questions and comments under The Wrap will be addressed in the Subscriber Mailbag section of the Monday post.

Questions about the site may be directed to zman@zmansenergybrain.com.

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Have a good weekend,



6 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 04/01/22”

  1. 1
    Zorgnak Says:

    Trend change underway in wind power?
    Weekly Testing major resistance/supply
    Daily Rejecting previous value area as too low
    VWDRY Weekly Looking for a retest of major resistance/supply at 11.59

  2. 2
    Zorgnak Says:

    PBW Clean energy ETF
    Weekly…Looking to test major resistance/supply soon.
    Daily Tight consolidation last week.Breakout above 66.59 Volume gap to major supply at 71.88.

  3. 3
    Zorgnak Says:

    Daily Exhaustion setup last week resolving into consolidation/continuation pattern to my eye.
    Defined support at 129.75

  4. 4
    Zorgnak Says:

    Daily Consolidation after exhaustion setups. Breakout above 293 Support at 265.86.

  5. 5
    Zorgnak Says:

    WTI Wide and wild value range
    Daily..Closed below value area low/resistance at 99.94…Next support at 94.36

  6. 6
    Zorgnak Says:

    Nat Gas Follow through on previous week’s break of long term value area highs..
    Weekly chart

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