11
Dec
Wrap – Week Ended 12/10/21
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Solid week for the portfolio.
I was driving through the genesis of that line of storms that hit middletown USA last night. Lightning, blinding rain, hail, high wind. I'm fine. Many are not. Please consider giving to the Red Cross. It only takes a few seconds here.
Send proof of donation to zman@zmansenergybrain.com and receive a free month on the site. Keep it for yourself. Give it as a gift (they make great stocking stuffers and there's not supply chain logistical issues to worry about). I don't care but we'll get it set up and activated this weekend. Their minimum is $10 so you don't have to go big.
Holdings Watch:
- We added one liquids rich gassy name to the portfolio last week and are building a position.
- The Trading Blotter is updated.
Free Stuff From The Last Two Weeks:
Numbers of Note from The Wrap table below:
- Crude prices rebounded smartly this week; as we noted minutes after the prior week's OPEC decision, that move was bullish.
- Natural as price retreated again in what we see as a healthy move for the gas centric E&P segment.
- No one was buying those $5+ prices anyway but they were prompting investors to "not want to chase".
- Also note that the front month is full of noise. The calendar 2022 and 2023 strips barely moved and these are what we care about relative to our own price decks used for modeling.
- Nymex non commercial (speculators) net short natural gas position is at the most net short level of 2021.
- Also note the CFTC Nymex net long oil position fell further out of what we see as volatility inducing territory (anything over 6x leads to bigger swings on weaker news).
- The U.S. oil directed rig count edged up but the pace of increase is slowing.
- Gas rig counts hit a fresh high for 2021 this week. This is Utica and maybe a Wash play but not Marcellus.
- Frac spread counts fell 4 as reported by Primary Vision. This is from the peak of 2021 and aligns with normal seasonal action and upstream 3Q21 call color which painted a picture of elevated but not spiraling higher activity into year end.
- Refiner throughput advanced as maintenance season has drawn to a close.
- The expected skew to distillates production is at hand (percentage wise relatively more distillates produced vs gasoline than in the summer months and we expect it to be sharper this year - price supportive for gasoline and therefore crude going into spring).
- The generic 3-2-1 crack rebounded sharply this week.
- Pretty good chance we see the peak for 2021 refiner throughput around year end 2021.
Questions and comments under The Wrap will be addressed in the Monday post. Questions about the site can be directed to the email above.
Consider giving this weekend,
Z
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Bill, I’ll check back to see if you have any questions or want more information on the theory and practical application of volume profiling…
December 11th, 2021 at 12:21 pmRRC Tightened all last week as selling turned to demand…a break above last weeks range has room to run 10% back to major supply/resistance.
December 11th, 2021 at 1:01 pmHourly chart with weekly value area
https://i.postimg.cc/bJVZjrDv/RRC60.png
Daily..Low volume/supply area above current consolidation at previous acceptance….
https://i.postimg.cc/2SCLvsDr/rrcd.png
NEX Major short term speed bump at previous acceptance/supply at 4.43…
December 11th, 2021 at 1:26 pmhttps://i.postimg.cc/jS5TfcLL/NEX.png
Hi Zorg,
I haven’t dived in yet but I will.
I hope you weathered the storms in Hawaii okay.
December 13th, 2021 at 4:20 am