27
Nov
Wrap – Week Ended 11/26/21
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Oddball holiday week with oil shoulder shrugging the long expected/threatened coordinated SPR release and then tripping over itself to fall over $10/bbl on massive volumes on Friday as new Covid variant Omicron was named prompting flight restrictions and concern that it's already in Europe, Asia, and likely the U.S. We added lightly in one oil name during the group fire sale.
As we noted Friday, the December OPEC+ meeting should have just gotten a whole lot simpler. Our view is they pause the monthly de-curtailment in light of rising Covid cases and the new variant without having to speak much to the SPR issue. Our twitter was surprisingly aggressive but we just don't see that first option as likely ... yet.
Free Stuff Last Week:
Holdings Watch:
- We sold our small position in Haynesville player GDP for $22.90, down 8% after a private cash offer at $23 was announced.
- We added to EV tied names (one of them twice),
- We added to two high quality balance sheet oily E&P's (also one of them twice)
- Please see the blotter for details.
- The blotter is updated.
Have a good weekend,
Z
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XOP Gap break below value. Late day rally with attempt to hold support at 97 If 97 fails, next support is in the mid to low 80’s.
Looks precarious to me. Needs to hold above 97…Most O&G names are looking very similar.
https://i.postimg.cc/GhyK7CBS/xopd.png
COP EX ZLT Late day rally back to bottom value, holding support on close. A break lower has little support until the mid to low 60s.
https://i.postimg.cc/cCYxjCGJ/cop.png
CIVI Late day rally back to previous acceptance (50.82). If rejected as too high little support below until the mid to low 40s.
November 28th, 2021 at 12:14 pmhttps://i.postimg.cc/qv2KnBt4/civid.png
MGY Breaking below value with little defined support until the high 15s.
https://i.postimg.cc/sgCQVFT8/mgy.png
HPK Held above previous acceptance at 13.32…
November 28th, 2021 at 12:15 pmhttps://i.postimg.cc/L8SWjXyV/hpk.png
OIH..Looks set to test major support at 172 on the both the daily and weekly time frames.
Weekly
https://i.postimg.cc/yYchhy5M/oihw.png
Daily
https://i.postimg.cc/W4bMvL3V/oihd.png
SLB Bounced off major acceptance at 28.11. Expecting choppy sideways trading in heavy congestion. Resistance starts at 30.
https://i.postimg.cc/v8WD32Yt/slb.png
PUMP Bounced off major acceptance at 7.74. If that fails next support is a dollar lower…
November 28th, 2021 at 12:16 pmhttps://i.postimg.cc/fWF5fLb9/PUMP.png
NEX Tried to bounce back to major acceptances (3.77). Next support at 3.25 if the current bounce fades.
https://i.postimg.cc/ZYVzb6Vh/NEX.png
LBRT Now below major support…No defined support below and a years supply above.
November 28th, 2021 at 12:20 pmhttps://i.postimg.cc/hG9NHmf6/LBRT.png
Nat Gas Strong move above November’s value area highs/resistance. Demand volume supportive of higher. Look for a pause at 5.65.
https://i.postimg.cc/L8wGPkbg/NGd.png
SWN Bounced off support at 4.74 and close in value and nearly unchanged for the day.
https://i.postimg.cc/FKdnstPM/swn.png
AR Closed just above Novembers value area low at 18.26. A break below 17.94
November 28th, 2021 at 12:55 pmhas little support until 16.34…Defined resistance now at 19.40.
https://i.postimg.cc/4ycYJQqv/ard.png
CRK Trading below considerable supply starting at 8.85…Large Volume gap below 8.25
November 28th, 2021 at 1:04 pmhttps://i.postimg.cc/02fwrcrZ/crk.png
PBW Clean energy stocks found high volume buyers on the close Friday. PBW checked
back and closed above it’s breakout level at 85.50. Watching nearest support at 84.33 which held on
Friday.
https://i.postimg.cc/63rdcw5x/pbwd.png
PTRA Tested long term volume base last week. Closed in the green Friday.
November 28th, 2021 at 1:44 pmDemand volume supports higher.
Daily
https://i.postimg.cc/L6wnJw2t/ptra.png
Weekly
https://i.postimg.cc/c4pLx3BT/ptraw.png
SHLS Testing previous breakout level/support at 29.40
https://i.postimg.cc/c4pLx3BT/ptraw.png
STEM Trying to hold recent lows. Long term volume base below at 19.75
November 28th, 2021 at 1:44 pmDaily
https://i.postimg.cc/qBsMQqs5/stem-1.png
Weekly
https://i.postimg.cc/Yq82KPyN/stemw.png
IEA Back in long term volume base..no nearby support.
November 28th, 2021 at 1:45 pmhttps://i.postimg.cc/c4pLx3BT/ptraw.png
FAN A break below 19.91 suggests more weakness to 18.97..
Daily
https://i.postimg.cc/NjS4L4jy/fan.png
VWDRY Skating along it’s long term volume base…Needs to hold here. No nearby support until the high 9s.
Weekly
https://i.postimg.cc/Y0nZhWPd/vwdry.png
TPIC No end of selling in sight.
November 28th, 2021 at 2:09 pmWeekly
https://i.postimg.cc/0ys5xgpr/tpicw.png
TAN Closed below previous breakout levels. Resistance at 19.29…
https://i.postimg.cc/5tm6D4Tx/tand.png
ENPH Extended. 236 near support. A break of 232 has little nearby support.
November 28th, 2021 at 2:18 pmhttps://i.postimg.cc/hGJK1Sny/enph.png
ARRY Major support at 20
November 28th, 2021 at 2:25 pmhttps://i.postimg.cc/52d5Vt7v/arry.png
[3:14 pm, 28/11/2021] Ed: China Study Warns Of ‘colossal’ Covid Outbreak If It Opens Up Like U.S, France
November 28th, 2021 at 4:18 pm11/28/2021 03:44:08 PM
The World Health Organization says it’s not yet clear whether Omicron is more transmissible than other coronavirus variants, as researchers continue to study its aspects. Axios
11/28/2021 03:45:06 PM
A South African doctor who was one of the first to suspect a different coronavirus strain among patients said that symptoms of the Omicron variant so far were mild and could be treated at home RTRS
[3:15 pm, 28/11/2021] Ed: World Health Organization says preliminary evidence suggests there may be an ‘increased risk of reinfection with Omicron’
Thanks Zorg, that is super helpful.
November 28th, 2021 at 4:19 pmWTI opens up $3
November 28th, 2021 at 6:04 pm#15 Fair to say it’s going to be volatile..Nat Gas opens down 7%
Crude Futs…
November 28th, 2021 at 9:29 pmhttps://i.postimg.cc/28ZprvB2/wti.png
Z, if the request line is still open…
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4472211-electrovaya-contender-to-ev-battery-market
November 28th, 2021 at 11:04 pmOvernight S&P Futs Highs up to resistance at 4644….
November 29th, 2021 at 1:04 amhttps://i.postimg.cc/PfmRQFxH/ES.png