Wrap – Week Ended 10/22/21



Modestly up week for the ZLT as energy earnings kicked off with large cap Oil Service and refining names reporting.  Oil Service likely a little slower than most expected though names like SLB called for a moderation of the NAM ramp up on the second quarter call and we note margins there continued to improve and the trajectory is good for a strong end to the year and a stronger 2022.  There is near universal agreement on a >20% type capex bump next year. The rest of the energy complex was fairly muted last week with the market's focus on financial sector earnings and the ongoing machinations of politicians while oil ground sides (front up, strip ebb) and natural gas took a much deserved moment to pause.

Holdings Watch:

  • We sold 45% of our holdings in Vestas (VWDRY) up 94%.
    • Please see the blotter for a quick explanation or for more detailed commentary view the September 3rd post or just inquire under The Monday post.
  • We added a new oily name.
  • The blotter is updated.

Free Stuff Last Week:

Notable numbers/comments from The Wrap table below: (just a few this week)

  • The generic 3-2-1 crack remains lofty but did retreat on the week. Notable comment from VLO (unowned) was that natural gas is 1/4 of their opex per barrel and that they are very much advantaged for exporting into LAM vs Europe where natural gas prices are good deal higher.
  • The second week of refiner maintenance saw little further sequential gap lower. We continue to expect a short and shallower than normal fail maintenance period followed by a greater than normal skew to distillate (and away from gasoline) production.
  • The Nymex speculative net short natural gas position remains near its high for 2021.

Questions about the site can be directed to zman@zmansenergybrain.com

Questions and comments below The Wrap will be addressed in the Subscriber Mailbag section of the Monday post. 

Intern #1 is home for a visit and I will be out of pocket until Monday.

Have a great weekend,





4 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 10/22/21”

  1. 1
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Broke above value and challenged ATH…Would be surprised to see a recheck at monthly value highs/support at 4477.

    XOP I see no indication that this run is over…Low volume/supply node above to 117.61..

    OIH Pausing at major supply/previous acceptance. I’d expect higher with a break above 229.

  2. 2
    Zorgnak Says:

    ICLN Clean energy hit upside of recent range..Look for support at 86.30 on the check back…

    TAN Broke above monthly value 86.23 and nearly broke above it’s long term volume base 92.68..
    Support at 86.23…on any check back

  3. 3
    Zorgnak Says:

    #1 Should have read “Wouldn’t be surprised to see a recheck at monthly highs/support at 4477”

  4. 4
    Zorgnak Says:

    CL Opened up tonight…93.10 next upside target…

    NG Testing value area highs for the month on the open tonight…

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