02
Oct
Wrap – Week Ended 10/01/21
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Volatile week if positive week with the ZLT was up % on the week. One of our long held top 5 upstream names made an all time high while two of our top 10 names against punched 52 week highs. Upstream continues to work well and gassy upstream is awake now. Our short list of oil service holdings also starting to wake up ahead of the 3Q reporting season. Solar and wind continue to be a mixed bag awaiting DC action on infrastructure. Next week we get the OPEC+ meeting and if "sources" are correct we could see the group edge up the monthly de-curtailment beyond the now standard 0.4 mm bopd per month increment as the group attempts to continue to address rising demand expectations and balance potential demand destruction fears. With 3Q21 now in the bag for prices look for strong mark-to-market for 3Q21 and mark-to-reality for 2022 and 2023 pricing in gas land over the next two weeks (estimates and targets to rise in much of the gassy upstream space).
Free Stuff Last Week: None
Holdings Watch:
- We added to one solar tied name on group weakness before the Commerce Department appeared to push back on the idea of broader scope import tariffs.
- The blotter is updated
- The positions page is updated
Numbers of note from the table below:
- Active U.S. frac spreads again set a new 2021 and pandemic period high. Active spread are likely 10 to 15% above levels needed for maintenance type volumes as per LBRT commentary.
- Note the front month profit taking in natural gas relative to the 12 month, 2022, and 2023 strips.
- The natural gas NYMEX non commercial (speculator) net long position fell to a new low for 2021.
- Note the strength in RBOB and HO. Note further that distillate vs gasoline production appears to be picking up ahead of refiner maintenance season, likely due to the whopping 12.5% deficit to the five year average for distillates as we head towards the heating season. And lastly note the improvement in the simple 3-2-1 crack that results from those product price gains. We continue to expect to see at least one 2021 record for throughput set before maintenance season really gets underway.
Questions about the site can be addressed to zman@zmansenergybrain.com. Questions under The Wrap will be addressed in the Monday post.
Have a good weekend,
Z
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A potential new market for the ‘Frac’ Industry………and hope for the Geothermal market
https://jpt.spe.org/why-multistage-stimulation-could-transform-the-geothermal-industry
Z, could you run this by LBRT?
October 2nd, 2021 at 10:44 amZ,
October 2nd, 2021 at 11:02 amRe MCF
Any new insight?
Is the lack of G& G types in Mgmt why they ANALYSTS are cool to them?.
Would you consider adding in the current environment?
S&P
October 3rd, 2021 at 9:22 amDaily Chart Range bound between 4335 VAL/4480 VAH. VIX above 20….so, still volatile..
Key Short term support/resistance to start next week… 4340/4388..
Daily
https://i.postimg.cc/RhV8m8gy/esd.png
Hourly
https://i.postimg.cc/65z59Dt0/es6000.png
WTI Weekly Strong weekly up trend…
October 3rd, 2021 at 9:23 amhttps://i.postimg.cc/x1XKSGM6/clw.png
Daily Attempting to break out higher…Near support at 72.64..Breakout targets 81.90
https://i.postimg.cc/j2kL89gt/cld.png
XOP
October 3rd, 2021 at 9:23 amWeekly strong uptrend continues. Next speed bump at 108.
https://i.postimg.cc/nrg27dtw/xopw.png
Daily Breaking out above 98.96.. near support at 94.88, major support at 91
https://i.postimg.cc/RFrncj3t/xopd.png
OIH Strong Uptrend intact. Support at 193.49..next upside target at 211.91.
October 3rd, 2021 at 9:24 amhttps://i.postimg.cc/Bbpg7qDk/oihd.pn
WTI Weekly Strong weekly up trend…
October 3rd, 2021 at 9:29 amhttps://i.postimg.cc/x1XKSGM6/clw.png
Daily Attempting to break out higher…Near support at 72.64..If/when it breaks out upside target at 81.90
https://i.postimg.cc/j2kL89gt/cld.png
MGY Support 17.1..Uptrending on all time frames
https://i.postimg.cc/xCP64dj2/MGY.png
BCEI Trending on all time frames..Support at 46.22..
https://i.postimg.cc/PJXt8K5k/bcei.png
MCF Consolidating at previous major acceptance..Looking for a continuation move…
October 3rd, 2021 at 9:43 amhttps://i.postimg.cc/pVww7sHV/mcf.png
COP..I don’t see anything between here and 73 on the upside…
October 3rd, 2021 at 9:48 amhttps://i.postimg.cc/T2NwDMg7/cop.png
AR Hitting heaving supply at 19.16…doesn’t seem to notice yet
October 3rd, 2021 at 9:54 amWeekly
https://i.postimg.cc/fTCRNVfr/ar.png
Daily..Support at 17.98
https://i.postimg.cc/J4jP4B6M/ard.png
SWN
October 3rd, 2021 at 10:01 amWeekly Above 6 looks to be a game changer longer term..
https://i.postimg.cc/hPb48pyw/swn.png
Daily Pulled back to support. Reloaded some at 5.50..Suport at 5.43
https://i.postimg.cc/wB2KGr8y/swnd.png
OIH Strong Uptrend intact. Support at 193.49..next upside target at 211.91.
https://i.postimg.cc/Bbpg7qDk/oihd.png
LBRT Gapped above previous acceptance at 11.86..rejected as too low on check back…looking for continuation with a move through 13.06..
October 3rd, 2021 at 10:30 amhttps://i.postimg.cc/90wkHFRN/lbrt.png
PUMP
October 3rd, 2021 at 10:31 amWeekly Just now coming off major long term volume base..
https://i.postimg.cc/FzdN74q2/pump.png
Daily Retaking all major moving averages…
Support at 8.09
https://i.postimg.cc/vTsxkKwn/pump-1.png
Hourly..Next short term speed bump at 9.50. Near support at 8.90
https://i.postimg.cc/vTsxkKwn/pump-1.png
Clean Energy..PBW
October 3rd, 2021 at 10:32 amWeekly downtrend to long term volume base..
https://i.postimg.cc/NFZMcX1H/pbw.png
Daily Downtrend to bottom of value 77.35 No sign of buyers…uggg
https://i.postimg.cc/htk5dt01/pbwd.png
SLB Weird day on Friday…tried to rally and fell back on low volume for the day…Sellers at 31.50
October 3rd, 2021 at 10:40 amDaily
Support looks solid at 29.11 Upside target at 32.68…if/when we get through 31.50
https://i.postimg.cc/QMRVRzZb/slb.png
Coal bounced last week and ended the week strong
October 3rd, 2021 at 10:41 amBTU Strong weekly up trend intact
Weekly
https://i.postimg.cc/g0FFVDK5/btuw.png
Daily
https://i.postimg.cc/zBzQ7PHd/btu.png
Uranium stocks starting to bounce going into next week.
October 3rd, 2021 at 10:45 amURA (ETF)
Weekly uptrend intact. Inside weekly bar…
https://i.postimg.cc/CdTHPz6F/ura-2.png
Daily
https://i.postimg.cc/s2yHf0mV/ura-1.png
Re #3 Market got concerned but never reached “scared” levels last week. Scared = > .60 Equity put/call ratio..
https://i.postimg.cc/4dKb2g5x/cpr.png
October 3rd, 2021 at 12:52 pmWelcome to October…
Seasonality..
https://i.postimg.cc/bw3BKqQx/seasonality.png
October 3rd, 2021 at 12:56 pmSTEM coiling within a narrow value range…Needs to break above previous major acceptance at 27 to get moving…
October 3rd, 2021 at 3:20 pmhttps://i.postimg.cc/9QBdmjYJ/stem.png
SHLS Looking for a bounce….
October 3rd, 2021 at 3:29 pmExtended on the downside to previous major acceptance at 27.92..
Daily Chart
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Short term resistance at 29
https://i.postimg.cc/brTnzxQd/shls-1.png
THX
October 4th, 2021 at 8:21 am