Wrap – Week Ended 9/10/11

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Never Forget. This weekend is a rough one for many. It helps to reach out. 

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Holdings Watch:

• We closed our CRK position up 47%.  This was a somewhat rare trade in the portfolio, taken in late August that ran faster than expected and through two of our upside targets ... so it's out again.
• We closed our BWEN position up 89%
• We added a solar segment name
• The blotter is updated.

Notable Numbers from last week:

• Well not in terms of energy benchmark performance. Everything was off slightly with the broader markets in the short week with oil service and renewables a little worse than most.
• Natural gas prices - see front month up another 6.4% and 12 month strip up 5.3% despite a bigger than expected injection and the promise of a more season one this week.
  • The 2022 and 2023 strips advances again as well.
  • Skip down to the CFTC section and the third and higher volume week of short covering for part of the reasoning here.
  • Natural gas is a bit ahead of itself at this time and we noted earlier in the week that EIA is looking for weaker power burn in 2022 and a big jump in coal consumption on the current strip.
  • While gas in storage is 7.4% below 5 year average and 16.8% below year ago levels at 2,923 Bcf this is not an extraordinarily low level looking back in time and peak 2021 and trough 2022 are not set to be record type levels either so again, a bit of a cover bump here that needs to deflate a little (bullish on gas, just not foolish on gas).
• Frac spreads, according to @PrimaryVision, edged up 4 to 244, tying the cycle high reached a few weeks ago.
• Rigs began to rebound from Ida power loss and we note rigs in the Permian hit a new cycle high.

Questions under The Wrap will be addressed in the Subscriber Mailbag section of the Monday post.

Questions about the site can be directed to zman@zmansenergybrain.com.

Have a good weekend,

Z

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