12
Aug

Thursday Morning – Late in the quarter mini earnings avalanche

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Market Sentiment Watch:

  • Late in the quarter but a busy day in the greater energy space for us. Comments may be briefer than usual. If something isn't clear please ask. 

In today's post please find:

  • the oil inventory review (neutral report),
  • the natural gas preview (consensus in line with our thoughts; smaller build next week, end of storage 2021 continues to shape as price supportive for 2022 strip),
  • OPEC Monthly,
  • comments on several reporting names of interest,
  • and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get jobless claims at 8:30 am EST (F = 375,000, last read was 385,000),
  • We get PPI at 8:30 am EST (F = 0.6%, last read was 1.0%),
  • We get the EIA Natural Gas Storage Report at 10:30 am EST. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. Oil Inventory Review - OPEC Monthly
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - STEM, PTRA, ARRY, MCF, NIO, Calendar
  5. Odds & Ends

 

Holdings Watch:   

ZLT

  • Yesterday's Trades: None, but seriously expect trades to resume very soon, likely this week. 
  • The Blotter is updated.

Commodity Watch:

Crude oil closed up $0.96 yesterday at $69.25 after EIA reported what we viewed as a fairly neutral report as weeklies go (just not much there to sway oil either way though it's nice to see the move in gasoline inventories (see table at the top of the Oil Inventory Review section below). 

  • The OPEC Monthly update (see below) is not bullish from a numbers standpoint but also underscores current OPEC+ production recovery cadence discipline.
  • IEA cut their view of demand on Covid today.
  • This morning crude is trading slightly.

OPEC Monthly Watch: 

  • 2021 and 2022 Global Demand:  Unchanged.
  • 2021 Non OPEC Liquids: Revised up 0.27 mm bopd to 64.0 mm bopd (up 1.1 from 2020)
    • growth from Canada, Russia, China, U.S., Norway, and Brazil.
  • 2022 Non OPEC Liquids: Revised up 0.84 mm bopd to grow 2.9 to 66.9 mm bopd.
    • growth led by Russia, U.S., Brazil, Norway, Canada, Kazakhstan, and Guyana.
    • notably, peak Non OPEC liquids production was 66.9 mm bopd registered in 1Q20 before Covid tanked it.
  • 2021 Call on OPEC:   Revised Down 0.2 mm bopd to 27.4 mm bopd (up 4.7 from 2020)
  • 2022 Call on OPEC:   Revised Down 1.1 mm bopd to 27.6.
    • OPEC production in July was 26.657 mm bopd, up 0.637 mm bopd vs June and ostensibly stepping higher monthly from here (somewhere below < 0.4 mm bopd month).
    • While we see a plethora of calls for $80 to $100 oil as U.S. stocks and OECD stocks fall it should be noted that just-about-all depends on the pace of OPEC+ production recovery cadence given ready excess supply there.
    • On the price supportive side Iran negotiations appear stalled.
  • June level OECD crude stocks at 63.6 days of supply are 16.3% below year ago and 1.5% below the 5 year average but notably 3.2% above the likely more relevant 2015 to 2019 5 year average (the pre Covid 5 yr).

Natural gas closed down 3 cents at $4.06 on a minor shift in next week's forecast (slightly cooler). We continue to see natural gas as a bit over heated but also see the coming peak and troughs as price supportive for the 2022 strip and we note strong discipline sentiment continues among the larger gas players. This morning gas is trading down 3 cents. 

Natural Gas Storage Preview

Street is at +50 Bcf (Reuters survey) to +47 Bcf (Bloom) for today's report. 

  • Last Week: +13 Bcf
  • Last Year: +54 Bcf
  • 5 Year Average: +42 Bcf

Oil Inventory Review

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Stuff We Care About Today

STEM (Smart Storage) Reports Solid 2Q21 Results; Reaffirms Guidance

  • Revenue of $19.3 mm vs $18.7 mm expected,
    • $15.4 mm in 1Q21
    • Majority of the growth is from front of meter hardware sales.
  • Non GAAP Gross margin of 11% vs 5% year ago:
    • With each sale they add hardware and networking revenues (expected to be 10 to 30% margins) but also deferred revenues for the Athena system often for 20 years which carries "north of 80%" gross margins.
  • EBITDA of ($8.6 mm) (no estimate for EBITDA was available),

Note that it may be helpful to refer to our initial write up here. 

Guidance:   Reaffirmed

  • Revenue: Reaffirmed prior guidance of $147 mm; revenue expectation calls for a back end loaded year with 20 to 30% in 3Q21 and 50 to 60% in 4Q21 (consistent with prior comments).
    • This is a highly seasonal business in terms of installs and the back end loaded nature of the year is normal for them but they do expect seasonality to flatten over time as software becomes a larger portion of total revenues.
  • EBITDA: Reaffirmed vs prior guidance of ($25 mm).  They saw inflation coming and locked in some supplier prices in January.

Highlights: (the call was last night and notes are included in this section)

  • Contracted backlog: $250 mm vs $221 mm at end of 1Q21.  This gives them confidence in the 2021 guidance and momentum into 2022.
  • 12-Month Pipeline:  $1.7 B vs $1.4 B at end of 1Q21 that could convert to backlog in the next 12 months. 2/3 of the growth is from front of market adds.
  • Contracted Assets Under Management (AUM) - 1.2 GWh, up 9% from 1.1 GWh last quarter.
  • Favorite Quote Watch: "Since mid-June 2021, Stem has consistently dispatched more than 500 MWh daily in multiple markets across the United States and Canada in response to heat waves, increased grid interconnections from renewables and wildfires that have caused widespread stress on power grids. Stem’s demand response and grid services programs are designed to use virtual power plants powered by the Athena software platform to flatten electricity usage peaks and deliver power to the most constrained parts of the grid."
  • They are replacing other competitors' software management systems with their Athena AI system and showing strong performance gains for clients.
  • They have a 100% attach rate for their Athena software with battery hardware sales.
  • Demand :
    • Corporate demand on the rise (noted Home Depot and UPS) as they become more focused on ESG which drives a higher mix of renewable energy.
    • Independent Power Producers, Cooperative, and Community market demand is rising sharply.  Currently pursuing projects in 26 states.
  • STEM University online platform has minted over 1,100 individuals (from 180 companies) who are credentialed to execute customer contracts and serve as deployment specialists.
  • Stand-alone storage ITC, if passed would increase base line estimates for their market by 25% according to WoodMac (this is seen as a $1.2 T market).  They note several states are not waiting on the feds but adopting their own measures to accelerate smart storage.

Balance Sheet:  No debt; $474 mm cash. They are working to further simplify their capital structure and note the PIPE shares have been sold into the market and they plan to redeem their outstanding warrants in late January.

Nutshell: Quarterly meet with a reaffirmation of guidance. Good call and presentation. This is a rapid growth segment.  Our sense is we want to own a little more of this one for the long term as well.

PTRA Reports Record 2Q21 Results; Announces Deal with LG to secure battery supply for future growth; Reaffirms 2021 Gudiance

  • We show no quarterly consensus estimates for the company yet.
  • They reported:
    • Revenue of $58.5 mm, up 39% YoY and a quarterly record.
      • Bus deliveries up 50% at 54 buses, mostly to existing customers.
      • Delivered power systems for 30 vehicles.
      • Noting the recent deals for offroad vehicles.
    • Gross margin of 2% (6th quarter to be on the plus side).  The quarter was impacted by about 200 bips by two events in the quarter.  They're not scaled up yet but do believe they can do better and have been impacted by Covid related logistics issues and inefficiencies in start up at the LA battery facility.   They see margins driving higher in the wake of Covid and over the next few years.
    • EBITDA of ($21 mm).
    • Capex of $4 mm.

Guidance: Reaffirmed 

  • Revenue reaffirmed at $246 mm, up 25% from 2020 levels.  1H21 totals to 46% of that.
  • Gross margin expected to remain positive rest of year despite challenges of supply chain.
  • Street consensus for 2021 consists of just one estimate at this time with Revenue of $234 mm and EBITDA of ($82) mm.

Highlights: (the call was last night and notes are included in this section)

  • Transit - Federal bus electrification funding expands (if the bill passes) from $182 mm in 2021 to > $800 mm per year for the next 5 years.
    • Market: 5 to 6,000 buses purchased in NAM each year.
      • 400 were electric last year.
      • Proterra is targeting > 1,000 buses per year.
  • Power - Wide range of vehicle types in process with 10 partnerships in place and more are expected this year and next but revenue only coming from one customer so far. Just getting started with these now.
  • Energy - 55 MW of charging installed now for buses and other vehicles.
  • In light of the recent announcements for partnering in the commercial and industrial space, they announced a supply agreement with LG Energy Solution securing a long term supply of cylindrical batteries made at the LG facility in the U.S. describing it as a 9 figure dollar sum to secure gigawatt-hours of capacity.  This is made in USA and USMC compliant (no tariffs).
    • This helps LG pioneer domestic production.
    • Also extends existing supply agreement ahead of first U.S. production at this new facility.
  • They will begin reporting separate business units next quarter (transit, powered, energy).
  • Cash on the balance sheet is $762 mm.
  • There was more interest on this call that we expected with multiple analysts who are not in print on the name asking modeling questions on the call (at present we only know of Citi who has only posted annual figures to date).

Nutshell:  Solid quarterly growth that keeps them on track to meet guidance made prior to the SPAC merger. Company painting a picture of strong growth along multiple lines with in transit as well as in the power and energy segments.  Scale is going to help a lot here. Look for more partnership announcements in coming months. Good to see the battery agreement. Good to see the high level of interest ... look for more initiations of coverage soon.

ARRY Reported Decent 2Q21 Results (Revenue Below, EBITDA and EPS Above); Re-Establishes Guidance Below Consensus (not shocking); Notes Positive Renegotiation of Contracts and Change in Order Taking Methodology; Announces Blackstone Preferred Share Deal ($350 mm expandable to $500 mm) To Revamp The Balance Sheet. 

Favorite Quote Watch: "“I am pleased to report that given the hard work of our team to negotiate with our customers and suppliers over the past several months, we are now able to reintroduce guidance for the full year.   More importantly, we have changed our business processes to reduce our exposure to future increases in commodity prices and shipping costs.   That hard work and those changes are reflected in the profitability of the orders we have booked since May which have gross margins in line with what we generated last year.   I am confident we are on a path to restore our gross margin to historical levels, but the improvement will be gradual as we still have legacy backlog at lower prices to burn off.”

2Q21 Number of Note

  • Gross margins of 13.2%, down 610 basis points from year ago's 19.3% due to higher input costs including hot rolled coil steel up > 3x from 2Q20 to 2Q21, a doubling of ocean freight expense, and a 60% increase in aluminum.
  • How They Are Addressing Inflation:
    • They have cut times from order confirmation to ordering materials (from a prior 90 day cycle from quote to ordering to 7 or 30 days).
      • Historically the 90 day period between order and parts ordering often resulted in lower, not higher costs.
      • Now they offer a 7 day quote or a 30 day quote with materials collars and require a down payment and LOI signage.
    • They have locked in 85% of supplier costs and almost 100% of steel costs for the rest of 2021,
    • As noted in the quote above, 2Q21 orders will have gross margins more in line with and in some cases above historical norms (lower 20%'s).
  • Gross margins are expected to climb back from the 2Q21 trough but it will take time to burn off some lower margin business (modest improvement in 3Q, more in 4Q and then back to more normalized as we move into 2022).

2021 Guidance: Regaining the confidence to guide. 

  • Previously suspended.
  • Re-established at Revenue of $850 to $940 mm
    • Vs current Street of $1,000 mm which will come down.
    • The range is a function of the current macro (still could see some more delays).
  • Expect 3Q revenue to be flat to slightly down.
  • Re-established EBITDA in a range of $55 to $75 mm
    • Vs current Street of $92 mm
    • Range here is a function of potentially higher logistics costs.
  • 3Q21 EBITDA is now expected to be the low point for 2021 before recovering in 4Q and 2022.

Highlights: (the call was last night and notes are included in this section)

  • Demand remains strong:
    • Order book at $882 mm, new record, up 45% from year ago's $606 mm.
      • On the look back at the 100 or so contracts they were in negotiations on as of the 1Q21 call they lost none and the impacts are reflected in the current guidance.
    • And 18 new projects were awarded in July for a total of $135 mm.
    • Cost increases are not stopping solar demand.
    • They see the big award growth as evidence of market share gains.
  • Noting the bipartisan infrastructure bill includes $73 B for electric grid upgrades.
  • They are adding talent to sell into new markets.
  • SmarTrack 2.0 will be released soon (solution to address severe weather).

Other Items:  The Blackstone Deal

  • Blackstone committed to buy up to $500 mm in preferred stock ($350 mm to start and another $150 mm potentially) at 5.75% cash dividend.
    • The dividend is payable in common shares (6.25% rate) or cash (the 5.75% rate).
    • These are not convertible preferred shares.
    • The preferred is callable at ARRY's discretion.
  • Blackstone will also receive 5.8% of the company in the form of 7.875 mm common shares.
  • Blackstone will take a board seat.
  • ARRY will use proceeds to reduce debt (paying off the revolver as well as prepaying $100 mm of the term loan while putting $136 mm cash on the balance sheet) and "fund growth initiatives".
    • Blackstone Quote Watch: "“Investing in Array is an opportunity for us to partner with an established solar industry leader and highlights Blackstone’s commitment to investing in companies that are enabling the transition to clean energy. We believe Array will be one of the long-term winners in the solar equipment market and that this investment will allow the company to accelerate its internal and external growth plans. We are very excited about what we will be able to achieve working together in the coming years,”
  • Blackstone is an investor in solar projects and EPCs and they see this deal opening up sell through opportunities for Array and as well as other benefits of being closely aligned with the supply chain leverage Blackstone has.
  • Lastly, they see Blackstone's investment as a validation of their technology and company.

Balance Sheet: 

  • Before the Blackstone deal net debt to annualized EBITDA moved to an uncomfortable 7.3x on a big jump in debt from 1Q to 2Q as they burned cash and registered negative free cash flow of $92.6 mm in the quarter.
  • Pro forma the initial $350 mm from Blackstone they go from $513 mm of net debt to $175 mm
  • The revolver is paid off, the term note is reduced by $100 mm and they will have $136 mm in cash on the balance sheet.  As such liquidity expands from $87 mm to $325 mm.
  • Pro forma net debt to TTM EBITDA improves to a more digestible 2.0x from a current 5.9x.
  • This puts them in a position to make acquisitions to accelerate growth.

Nutshell: Solid quarter. Guidance could have been worse. Fundamentally we think they are at or near the bottom and put in place strong measures to prevent a reoccurance from a margin standpoint (demand of course could get hit/delayed on further cost spikes).   The Blackstone deal is clever and gives them optionality.  We want to add more while it's weak and will attempt to time an add this morning if it sells off early or is otherwise particularly sloppy.

MCF Reports Solid 2Q21 Results; Reiterates Plan to Low Multiple Acquire and Exploit Strategy

  • Production of 24.1 MBOEpd (62% liquids and slightly above guidance) vs 22.7 MBOEpd (40% oil) expected,
  • EBITDAX of $31.1 mm vs $30.3 mm expected,
  • Borrowing base expanded from $120 mm to $250 mm,
  • The June 7th announced Independence merger is set for a 4Q close while the asset deal with COP is expected to close in 3Q21.
  • Conference call was last night and we have not been on the replay yet.
  • We own a smallest-in-portfolio position in the ZLT here.

Other Stuff

NIO (unowned) Reported Solid 2Q21 Results; Guides To Further Sequential Growth

  • Car deliveries were 21,896 cars (previously announced), up 112% YoY and up 9% sequential, continuing a strong up and to the right pattern resumption.
  • Revenue of $1.308 mm vs $1.28 B expected.
  • Gross margins were off slightly sequentially.
  • EPS of ($0.07) vs ($0.11) expected.
  • Guidance:
    • 3Q21 Deliveries of 23 to 25,000 cars,
    • 3Q21 Revenues of $1.38 to $1.49 B.
      • Consensus is $1.38 B.
  • We are just keeping tabs on the story at present but may own it this year and we plan to listen to the replay here today.  We'll do another cheat sheet update soon.

Calendar Update (adds MAXN- unowned)

Please see the calendar link at upper left or click here

Odds and Ends

Analyst Watch:

  • TBA in comments

72 Responses to “Thursday Morning – Late in the quarter mini earnings avalanche”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    OPEC and IEA comments not positive for near term oil prices but again, points to a need for OPEC+ continued cooperation and discipline.

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    Analyst Watch- ARRY

    Guggenheim resumes at Buy; cuts target from $51 to $28 (mark to reality)

    JPM cuts from $40 to $36

    Piper cuts from $24 to $17 or $18 (see both headlines).

    Stock at $15.

    Likely we resume trades today here.

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    Updated version of So Far This Quarter out tomorrow.

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    Just before equity open

    WTI off a dime – shrugging off OPEC and IEA comments.

    NG – down 5 cents an hour ahead of storage. Next week’s injection should be much smaller.

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE – ZLT – ARRY

    ARRY – Added to ARRY position at $15.79 for the first time since our add in May at $14.70. The company held a good 2Q21 conference call which, although it guided below current 2021 consensus, provided a detailed update of its bidding process that it sees resulting in a gradual return to more normalized margins while also highlighting strong customer retention and new strong demand growth including strong orders after the quarter that are designed to be back in the low 20%’s type gross margins. Please see today’s post for additional details.

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    The blotter is updated

    https://zmansenergybrain.com/subscriber-data/zeb-zlt-blotter-ii/

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    If anyone sees sellside comments from today on CHK (unowned) / VEI (still owned) let me know, thanks.

  8. 8
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 7: MKM Partners maintained CHK with a Buy. Target raised from $72 to $90.

  9. 9
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 7: Capital One raised CHK to Overweight.

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    re 8/9 – thanks much

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    ARRY – 2x 20 day avg full day’s volumes.

  12. 12
    zman Says:

    Natural Gas Storage Quick Look

    +49 Bcf (in line)
    Storage is now at 2,776 Bcf

    16.5% below year ago
    6.0% below 5 yr avg

    Look for a smaller build next week, update this evening.

  13. 13
    nrgyman Says:

    PTRA just filled the Aug 9 opening gap. Looking for a bounce. Picked up some shares.

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE – ZLT – PTRA

    PTRA – Added to our position in Proterra at average $11.02, down about 8% on the day in the wake of earnings last night and with a red group today; a small add to our middling sized position (now #9 in the ZLT). Stock is weak after earnings last night which are described in today’s post but in summary were a meet and reaffirm with continued positive if narrow gross margins and strong demand momentum. We see the name as under covered with just 2 analysts in print at this time with what we’d term less than granular estimates (annuals, no quarterlies) but note there were three and maybe more sellside analysts on the calls asking modeling and big picture type questions. While the name is viewed largely as an electric bus company we see progress on a path to more as signaled by recent industrial partnerships and an LG battery cell commitment penned yesterday. Please see today’s post for additional thoughts as well as our background pieces on the company on the site.

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    re 13 – ha, thanks, was typing 14, had not seen 13.

  16. 16
    zman Says:

    STEM broke obvious support. Watching for it to slow. Good quarter, good reaffirm, bigger quarters with higher margins on the way. See notes on the quarter above.

  17. 17
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 16: STEM slide headed for the May 24 opening gap. It fills at $22.09, a low-volume support level.

  18. 18
    zman Says:

    re 16 – and same request as per VEI, any sellside you see on STEM today lemme know, thanks.

  19. 19
    zman Says:

    The ARRY daily chart is interesting now.

  20. 20
    zman Says:

    Nrgy – are you going to be on the MAXN (unowned) call tonight.

    Crysball – did you see the comments on ARRY and order taking methodology, I thought you asked me about that the other day and I think they did a really good job of addressing the new method.

  21. 21
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 20: Not likely, but will read the release and hopefully the presentation. Not expecting any fireworks on Q2, however the guide will be important.

  22. 22
    zman Says:

    re 22 – k, thanks.

  23. 23
    zman Says:

    NEX – Billionaire Wilks adds to position

    http://archive.fast-edgar.com/20210812/AT2BS22EZZ2R2TZ2229S2ZYP6SSVZZ22X232/

  24. 24
    elduque Says:

    Nrgy- any thoughts on EQT at these levels.

    Bt. stk when it got clobbered on earnings release. Sold it at 19. Wondering if it is worth purchasing at these levels.

  25. 25
    Skeptcl Says:

    Briefing: Will watch for color.

    Stem (STEM) initiated with a Positive at Susquehanna; tgt $35

  26. 26
    Skeptcl Says:

    25–Nevermind. Old news

  27. 27
    Skeptcl Says:

    This was what I meant to post:

    Array Tech (ARRY) assumed with a Buy at Guggenheim; tgt $28

  28. 28
    zman Says:

    re 27 – thanks

  29. 29
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 24: EQT is highly hedged through 2022 with below market hedges. EQT also has higher debt, higher valuation and lower shareholder return metrics than some peers. I do not own EQT.

    I prefer AR, which I have a LT position in. I also added CHK yesterday on the dip.

  30. 30
    crysball Says:

    20, ARRY yes noted order recognition method….Thnx

    Added ARRY, PRTRA, STEM(nibbled) and BCEI@36.94.

  31. 31
    elduque Says:

    thank you

  32. 32
    zman Says:

    re 29 – thanks for fielding.

    re 30 – thanks, good to know.

  33. 33
    zman Says:

    U.S. EXPECTED TO ANNOUNCE REMOVAL OF SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES AT EMBASSY IN KABUL- THREE OFFICIALS TELL REUTERS

    Hmmm

  34. 34
    zman Says:

    re 31 – we will have a series of Gassy Player cheat sheet updates next week followed by the Gassy Player tables.

  35. 35
    zman Says:

    Free stuff

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4447546-bonanza-creek-solid-q2-earnings-on-road-to-greater-scale-and-payouts

  36. 36
    zman Says:

    More Free Stuff

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448050-shoals-technologies-q2-earnings-guidance-reaffirmed-despite-solar-sector-headwinds

    Because sharing is caring.

  37. 37
    Anonymous Says:

    STEM…Sell off taking it to the bottom of it’s value area (23.32) since trading began….I don’t see any obvious support nearby…Trying to stabilize now…note low volume area below today’s LOD…
    https://i.postimg.cc/RVF20z5G/stem-1.png

  38. 38
    zman Says:

    STEM let it’s accountant, Withum, go yesterday in an 8k,

    • notes of no disagreements.

    • Withum was accountant for the SPAC firm

    • hired Deloitte

  39. 39
    zman Says:

    Thanks Zorg

  40. 40
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE – ZLT – STEM

    STEM – Adding to the name at $23.51 on weakness following a solid quarter announced last night and covered in today’s post. This is a smart storage company with AI software management focused on the corporate and IPP/COOP solar space (smaller foot print solar with a need for battery storage). They are growing rapidly and just in front of the strong seasonal part of the year. They have a strong backlog and a stronger pipeline and reaffirmed guidance last night. The shares are off > 10% today we think potentially on a technical weakness exacerbated by their change of accounting firm.

  41. 41
    Zorgnak Says:

    Noting TSLA Trying to break out above 720…..Not much action in EVs other than that today..
    https://i.postimg.cc/DZQdFmw0/tsla-1.png

  42. 42
    elduque Says:

    re 34- no rush, you have been more than busy.

    I appreciate all that you do.

  43. 43
    zman Says:

    The blotter is updated (again)

    https://zmansenergybrain.com/subscriber-data/zeb-zlt-blotter-ii/

  44. 44
    zman Says:

    re 42 – hey thanks for being a very long term subscriber!

  45. 45
    zman Says:

    re 41 – TSLA (unowned except by the wife).

  46. 46
    zman Says:

    Someone big just noticed STEM was down for no good reason.

  47. 47
    Zorgnak Says:

    ARRY Clearing the 3 month volume base on volume

    nice
    https://i.postimg.cc/0jfT68c2/arry.png

  48. 48
    Zorgnak Says:

    TPIC Was extended at supply 43.68..backed off…looks set to test that area again…
    https://i.postimg.cc/9Xgt2Dd8/tpic.png

  49. 49
    Zorgnak Says:

    STEM (Very short term) Most shares traded today in the green…sellers have been at at 24.05…bounce above that area would be lovely…
    https://i.postimg.cc/cJjgj3yw/stem-2.png

  50. 50
    zman Says:

    re 49 – will see what we can do.

  51. 51
    Jason Says:

    re PTRA. Is the market concerned that this SPAC will follow in the footsteps of other “bad SPACs”? We have many examples at this point. In other words, is it “baby with the bathwater”?

    Or is the market pricing this like a modestly-growing capital intensive business that got caught up in SPAC-mania but … deserves lower and more realistic multiples?

    Finally, did you have a sense of sponsor alignment with minority shareholders during the SPAC financing process? That alignment (or non-alignment) seems like a significant factor in the subsequent performance of deSPACed businesses. These deals generally were rich for sponsors and stingy for the public.

    Thanks!

  52. 52
    Zorgnak Says:

    Early morning pattern in small caps….Selloff and then buyers on the dip….need to follow through and get above 225 IWM
    https://i.postimg.cc/RFZmcsbT/iwm.png

  53. 53
    Zorgnak Says:

    #50 Thank you…

  54. 54
    Zorgnak Says:

    SHLS Looks higher into the close…

  55. 55
    zman Says:

    re 51

    • I think it’s tied to SPAC thoughts and sold off with the rest of them.
    • I generally don’t care IPO vs SPAC so no I don’t have much of a sense of that.
    • Some are predisposed to dislike anything SPAC tied, not saying without reason, though I have done well with some (MGY was a SPAC).
    • I think it gets caught up in commercial EV hype and flushed with it (again, as per above).
    • I think it gets tied overly much to EV buses and that market has been tied to Covid and it’s impacts on mass transit. To which I’d point out that buses are in their 5th generation and that has proved up the power train tech and now were are seeing the migration to everything from tractors and cranes to forklifts.
    • I think they get no credit for the infrastructure charging side and the ability to sell a soup to nuts solution.
    • but circling back to what the market is concerned about? I don’t know, there’s one guy with numbers (Citi) have not seen any comments from him and another in coverage CSFB, Barclays, RBC were asking the modeling questions, I think I heard Baird too but not sure … so more coverage coming … the reaffirm was good to see in view.
    • one guy I chat with in these circles note the low GM and while I hear his point and respect that that could be a gripe they are no where near scale yet and he notes GM’s will rise soon as well.
    • could there be overhang? Yes.
    • could their IR team call me back instead of playing email tag? Yeah that would be nice.
    • am I more patient than most? Yep.
    • is it in danger of pulling a Canoo and tossing the model out the window like so much wasted time on excel? No, I don’t see that.
  56. 56
    zman Says:

    VEI is our 5th largest position. We have not yet sold a share. We are not going to be CHK holders. But I like the verticality of that CHK chart.

    $59.14 CHK
    @ 0.2486 + $1.20
    = $15.88 VEI

    trading at a deal discount of 2% today vs a 1% yesterday. Continued rally may see that widen to 3 to 5%. We won’t be around to see that happen unless I sleep in.

  57. 57
    zman Says:

    MGY with a $15 handle. If you missed our MGY comments for the quarter please see the vacation week post here:

    https://zmansenergybrain.com/2021/08/02/monday-friday-post-8-2-21-to-8-6-21/

    And would again note Chazen picked up 50K shares after the call.

    If his exit plan for his 7 mm+ shares isn’t to sell this vehicle to a bigger fish then he really should up that dividend on a semi annual basis.

  58. 58
    zman Says:

    re 54 – it was a good quarter and call, kind of lost in the maelstrom (there were a number of analysts who were jumping from call to call last night).

  59. 59
    zman Says:

    There was a bit of a hit piece on BCEI written by Bloomberg staffers out this morning. Tied to permit and process of life in CO. Saw nothing new in it and it appears to be gaining no traction today.

  60. 60
    zman Says:

    Beerthirty – we will have comments on MAXN (unowned) in tomorrow’s post and a So Far This Quarter update. Back in a bit.

  61. 61
    zman Says:

    Analyst Watch

    ARRY – Credit Suisse cut their target a buck to $30. Was out later in the day than the ones above.

  62. 62
    Jason Says:

    re 51/55. That’s good color. Appreciate the insights.

    It seems like some of these (SPAC) management teams have decent operations staff; but going public is a jump to the big leagues; and it seems like a learning curve for a lot of them. On one hand, understandable. On the other, you sometimes wish that they were a tad more prepared and proactive.

    But thanks again.

  63. 63
    jim bob is my jesus Says:

    STEM- shares registered for 2 holders in the amount of 4.7Mln

    star peak sponsor: 2,889,870
    NewEra Cap holdings: 1,793,479

  64. 64
    zman Says:

    NY Pension Fund to review oil holdings.

    $640 mm but it will make headlines everywhere as they have holdings in 42 “shale” companies.

  65. 65
    zman Says:

    re 62 – hear ya
    re 63 thanks

  66. 66
    zman Says:

    35 to 40 Bcf type injection next week likely, could be lower but getting more separation in the data in the last couple of weeks vs reports.

  67. 67
    zman Says:

    MAXN (unowned) call about to begin, notes in the morning.

    Quarter was light on revenue and EBITDA.

    Guided 3Q high on revenue but well low on EBITDA.

  68. 68
    crysball Says:

    The 🤡 of the OIL Business

    #1Pemex Can’t Afford to Develop the Oil Field It Fought to Control

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-12/pemex-can-t-afford-to-develop-the-oil-field-it-fought-to-control e OIL

    #2 The New refinery Pemex is building (inAMLO’s home state) is already far behind schedule, plagued by cost overruns, & is located on an environmental wetland that Pemex had previously agreed in writing not to develop…..and in a hurricane prone area.
    Also, lest we forget, Pemex has plenty of existing refinery capacity in country….but all 6 of their domestic refineries
    run at a fraction of nameplate, and are plagued with poor maintenance and a horrific safety record……..and what production they do get is Is subject to pipeline taps by the drug cartels before it ever gets to the consumer.

    #3Pemex is drowning in debt……115 Billion in US$ …..but recently added to the debt burden when they bought out Shell in the Deer Park,TX 50/50 REFINERY venture….but is already having problems with both state & federal regulators & the union local given their track record in refinery operations in Mexico and mismanagement style.

    PEMEX is a Case Study is how NOT to run a an Oil & Gas Industry.

    All IMHO.

  69. 69
    zman Says:

    e 68 – corruption, mismanagement, inability to guide.

  70. 70
    crysball Says:

    Good News for US crude exports

    S.Korea, Chinese refiners buy at least 5 million bbls U.S. sour crude – Reuters

    https://apple.news/Ai3v2xRyKRfmRy_19Sl8Qtg

  71. 71
    zman Says:

    re 70 – thanks, the Friday post is up.

  72. 72
    Zman's Energy Brain ~ oil, gas, stocks, etc… » Blog Archive » Wrap – Week Ended 08/14/21 Says:

    […] Last Thursday's post – typical earnings season post plus oil inventory slide show.  […]

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