Wrap – Week Ended 7/17/20



Essentially flat week for us as our largest position in the renewable space saw sharp profit taking on Monday. Otherwise things are going pretty well and we have other core renewables moving to new 52 week and/or decade plus highs as they proceed towards our 12 month upside target areas (a little faster than expected in two cases). Oily and gas centric names continue to bottom.  News flow has been summer-doldrums-slow as expected but that starts to change next week as we get the first of the oil service 2Q reports followed by the beginning of the upstream and renewables releases the following week.


The Blotter is updated.

The ZLT Positions page was last updated a week ago and will be refreshed this weekend.

Free Stuff Last Week:

Questions and comments will be addressed in the Monday post. Questions about the site can be sent to zman@zmansenergybrain.com. Have a good weekend.   The Wrap table is below the following table and graphs.

A Table For Thought:  U.S. shale oil and gas play production has rolled over. This table showing a rapid decline in not just the rig count but the spud count and wells actually placed on production points to more to come.

Graphs for those who like graphs with a little more historical context:


10 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 7/17/20”

  1. 1
    Baylor Says:

    How is GPOR hedged? Would seem if they have some upside there, and willing to park money for 6-8 months, we’re likely to be in a deficit to the 5 year in NG by January or February. Easily so if LNG demand returns in any way

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    Thanks Baylor, response will be in the Subscriber Mailbag Monday post.

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    Interesting reading watch


  4. 4
    zman Says:

    See the DPR watch in Monday’s post.

    Each month shale play production has been revised lower this spring and early summer.

    Since April alone, volumes are down 4.5 Bcfgpd or over 5%.

    Since peak production in November 2019, volumes will be off over 8 Bcfgpd.

    See table and charts in Friday’s post and then note that the gassy plays, though down on completions are down the least among shale plays this year. And still volumes are heading lower.

    This is masked by Covid impacts on LNG much like the early part of the production decline was masked by last winters warm temps. This won’t last and should set up strong 2021 pricing.

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    You can see this now in the longer term strip. Chart of that in Monday’s post.

  6. 6
    Skipton Says:

    Z re 3
    The world demand is

  7. 7
    Skipton Says:

    Z re3
    And the world supply in 2019 was


    And with the largest mines shit due to the virus the shortfall will be even greater

  8. 8
    Skipton Says:

    Z Re 3
    And the marginal cost of production seems to be between $40 and $60 per lb and the current price is $ 33 per lb so there is little to no incentive to open mothballed mines yet But is almost certainly bound to come though who knows when

  9. 9
    crysball Says:

    Z and all interested in the micro grid business.

    Would like to bring to your attention a TINY but interesting supplier to mirogrid OEM’s called Clean Spark. OTC BB (CLSK)

    They have Software (both microgrid managing & modeling) and a hardware Products. for microgrid OEM’s.

    They just won a contract fro the state of CA (along with ReJoule) to repurpose used BEV Li Ion batteries as storage device in solar micro grids.

    They have a checkered history….but the mgmt. team seems to have the right focus.

    Appreciate. Your taking a peek under their hood.

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    Thanks Skipton

    Will do Crysball

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