16
May

Wrap – Week Ended 05/15/20

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First down week for the portfolio in the last 7 as earnings season yawns to a close with no land mine reports stepped on this quarter:

  • Profit taking.

  • Oil continued to lift but much of this is prompt month pre expiry machinations with the end of this contract looking a lot different than last month's unique exit.

    • We say much not all because as detailed in Thursday's slide show the weekly out of EIA was better than expected including a draw at Cushing, a much larger than usual drop in L48 oil production as EIA tries to incorporate some curtailments, and another pop in what is otherwise a still very poor gasoline demand figure.  Please see Thursday's slide show for details.

    • and EIA and OPEC both reduced non OPEC production expectations while IEA went so far as to highlight an improving oil market balance

    • while Saudi said it would cut output a further 1 mm bopd and urged OPEC++ to make further cuts as well.

  • Equities (including hydrocarbon energy equities) looked a bit tired at week's open and are in need of some sideways action after the bounce.

  • We note the energy media highlighting a coming wave of BK's.  Three words:  Not our names.

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Free stuff so far this month:

On the site last week we updated a number of gassy player cheat sheets.

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The Trading Blotter is updated:

  • Only 3 trades this month so far,

    • 2 sells (BE up 102%, and part of AR up 125%)

    • and one add to an existing holding (PLUG)

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The ZEB positions page will be updated before the open on Monday.

Questions and comments under The Wrap will be addressed in the Subscriber Mailbag section of the Monday post.

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Response to question on TPIC last night under the TGIF post.

a) no doubt, Covid-19 is in the room and not leaving.
b) TPIC specifically – has seen Covid-19 work outages (Mexico, some Iowa), 2Q will see more downtime vs 1Q (this is known) and things are improving this month in Mexico where most of the downtime has been. Matamoros was less impacted, lines at Juarez were down and there has been less govt direction but that too is expected to be back soon.
c) We see PTC extension for another year as likely. Grassley and others is working on this. It is a logical extension and would be in line with a string of governmental timeline relaxations.
d) we have seen no cancellations, and only a few delays of wind projects.
e) during the down time, we have seen several spans of time where wind has eclipsed other sources of power in Europe and even Coal in the U.S.
f) it’s like wind and potentially solar see greater sentiment increase in the wake of Covid-19.
g) Wood-Mac estimates for onshore and offshore power have seen some adjustment near year but also reflect improvement over the medium term time frame.
h) back to TPIC again, the EV composite contract will be “unmasked” before YE20.

Questions about the site can be directed to zman@zmansenergybrain.com

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Have a good weekend,

Z

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5 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 05/15/20”

  1. 1
    Baylor Says:

    Rumor that Powell will say on 60 minutes a mandate to buy individual stocks could be an alternative to a vaccine

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    re 1 – ha, wow.

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/17/powell-says-a-full-economic-recovery-may-not-happen-without-a-vaccine.html?__source=twitter%7Cmain

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    GPOR (unowned) – tomorrow’s post, trying to push these out quick to get to the Gassy Players update.

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    $30

    https://www.dailyfx.com/crude-oil

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