30
Apr

Thursday Morning – COP, AR

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Market Sentiment Watch:

  • Dr. Fauci called remdesivir "a drug that can block this virus" ... more of this please; test it and scale up please.
  • In energy land:
    • The Department of Energy and the Treasury are examining bridge loan or other financing for E&Ps. Cue uproar. No we don't see this impacting U.S. production volumes ... they are going to fall anyway as a bridge loan to stave off potential revolver issues is not going to unstack rigs and spreads but it may keep some names out of restructuring. We don't have details yet but will pass them along when we do.
    • Texas RRC plans to vote soon on measure to curtail Texas production by 20%.  We do not see this passing.   The chairman said yesterday he opposes prorationing.
    • Norway is cutting production.
    • U.S. oil inventories stand at 61% of capacity.
    • Voluntary cuts are stacking up by the day (see COP today sharply increasing their planned curtailments by June over what was guided just two weeks ago). Our sense is that EIA will miss some of this in the weekly initially but then adjust in a few weeks time.

In today's post please find:

  • the oil inventory review (better than expected numbers as throughput starts to lift and oil production continues to decline, expect EIA to miss curtailed volumes initially),
  • the natural gas inventory preview (much smaller than year ago build expected),
  • AR - comments on 1Q20,
  • COP - comments on 1Q20 (maintains the dividend, announces deeper curtailments, balance sheet remains strong),
  • and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get jobless claims at 8:30 am EST (F = 3.5, last read was 4.43 mm),
  • We get personal income at 8:30 am EST (F = -1.1% vs 0.6% last month),
  • We get consumer spending at 8:30 am EST (F = -6.9% vs 0.2% last month),
  • We get core inflation at 8:30 am EST (F = -0.1%, last read was 0.2%),
  • We get Chicago PMI at 9:45 am EST (no forecast, last read was 47.8).
  • We should get the EIA-914 monthly data at 12 pm EST.

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. Oil Inventory Review
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - AR, COP
  5. Odds & Ends

 

Holdings Watch:   

ZLT

  • Yesterday's Trades: None
  • The Blotter is updated.

Commodity Watch:

Crude oil closed up $2.72 yesterday at $15.06 on word that Russia has begun production cuts that will amount to 2 mm bopd from its February levels and was supported by a better than expected weekly out of EIA that included a draw on gasoline stocks as demand rose slowly off its recent low levels. This morning crude is trading up $2.30.

  • Norway Watch:  Norway will cut 0.25 mm bopd in June and 0.134 mm bopd for 2H. This should please Saudi/Russia.

Natural gas retreated $0.08 to close at $1.87, apparently moving low on Covid-19 LNG demand impact fears and a milder forecast. The Gas Exporting Countries Forum, which covers 61% of global LNG said it does not intend to reduce output to bolster prices given the need for long term LNG security for its customers. This morning gas is trading up a penny.

  • LNG Watch:  Argus reports up to 25 LNG cargos from the U.S. may be cancelled for June.

 

Natural Gas Storage Preview

Street is at +69 to +71 Bcf for today's report. 

  • Last Week: +43 Bcf
  • Last Year: +143 Bcf
  • 5 Year Average: +74 Bcf

Oil Inventory Review

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Stuff We Care About Today

AR Reported A 1Q20 EBITDA Miss On In Line Volumes (lower than expected commodity prices on the unhedged portion); Reducing Capex (Again), Maintaining Production Guidance (Again); Well Costs Continue to Rapidly Decline

Please see our Seeking Alpha post on it here.

COP Reported Solid 1Q20 Results; Maintains Dividend; Balance Sheet Remains Strong

  • Production ex Libya of 1,278 MBOEpd vs Street at 1,281 MBOEpd,
    • 399 MBOEpd from their Lower 48 Big 3 (Eagle Ford at 233 then Bakken and Permian),
  • Average realized price per BOE was $38.81 in the quarter vs $50.59 in 1Q19.
  • Cash flow from operations before working capital was a solid $1.6 B.
  • EPS of $0.45 (ex items) vs $0.24 expected,
  • Dividend of $0.42 per share announced, flat with last quarter .... we are seeing dividend cuts at other big energy stalwarts including Shell today.

2020 Guidance:

  • Capex of $4.2 B to $4.4 B (revised lower in March and April by $2.3 B),
  • Volumes
    • Guidance was previously suspend and for now they are not issuing new guidance due to uncertainty of oil market constraints. Makes sense.
    • Original range was 1.23 to 1.27 MMBOEPD.
  • Operating cost guidance.

Highlights:

  • L48 activity - they had previously cut rigs from 13 to 7 and frac spreads  from 5 to 0.
  • Voluntary curtailments for May to be 265 MBopd gross (oil only number with 165 of that from the L48), (net is 230 MBopd)
    • up from prior 225 MBpopd gross comment from mid April)
  • Voluntary curtailments for June reach 460 MBOpd gross (260 of that from L48)
  • They will decide curtailment levels on a month by month basis after June.

Balance Sheet:

  • $8 B in cash and short term investments. Cash was bolstered by $0.5 B in asset sales in the L48 (non Big 3).
  • Net debt is $6.85 ($14.85 less the $8 B in cash and equivalents) which is in good shape at ~ 1x annualized quarterly EBITDA.

Conference Call: Today, 12 pm EST.

Nutshell: Good quarter. Bigger curtailments make sense. Name remains financially strong and dividend maintenance speaks to this.  We own a relatively small, just over 2% of assets position here and continue to see the name as one that checks many of the boxes for investors who want to be in the space.

 

Other Stuff

  • Tomorrow we get reports from COG and from unowned names SWN and RRC. Next week the calendar heats up more. Please see the Calendar in the link at upper right.

Odds and Ends

Analyst Watch:

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72 Responses to “Thursday Morning – COP, AR”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    Jobless claims at 3.84 mm vs 3.5 mm exp

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    Noting several capex cuts of late with no change to guidance. Some of this can be more DUCs and less spuds or more spuds of dry gas vs a liquids well. AR deferring a liquids pad that would have been late year and more impactful to 2021 is another example.

    Not saying they will because they are conservative guiders but if we see inch down from COG tonight with the same no change to maintenance mode type volumes the name should eclipse mid $20s, name is free cash flowing close to $2, strip is close to $2.50 now and they are again, lightly hedged with a balance sheet that is best in gassy group and a low low cost per Mcf structure and fairly tight diffs.

  3. 3
    Baylor Says:

    MTDR beast mode. Need a few hundred more %
    Nice double on MGY. Called that in my post here a little while back
    UGAZ a likely double or 70% at least gainer in 6 weeks if patient

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    Nice

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    re 3 – speaking of beast mode, hope you saw our GPOR trade. Triple off the lows in < 2 weeks.

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    WTI just under $17 as we approach equity open.

    https://www.dailyfx.com/crude-oil

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    NG up 2 pennies

    https://www.investing.com/commodities/natural-gas

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    Our AR pickup at $1.35 on 4/16 working well as well. And then there is GDP, all added for extra gas exposure on top of our core names there.

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    For sharing:

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4341417-antero-resources-cuts-capex-again-and-maintains-production-guidance-again

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    A little early morning pt. Working on five straight weeks of gains so yeah, pretty normal to see some sawing action. Here, working, shout if you need something.

  11. 11
    John Deters Says:

    Nice write-up on AR. Seems they really need the income from the AM dividend. Any thoughts about whether AM will maintain that?

  12. 12
    zman Says:

    re 11 – Good morning, it’s unclear at time, which AR even noted in the release. I don’t have incremental color (if AM (unowned) is reviewing it then I’d be out of my pond commenting supposing I know better), am sure it will be subject of questions on the call.

    AR is the riskiest thing we own from a pure leverage standpoint. No near term concern of BK or anything like that but they are more stretched than we like. The multiple levers they have to reduce leverage need to get pulled this year.

    Also, can’t overstate the importance of their NGL comments.

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    Someone give me a headsup next time ENPH (unowned) gives up 10+% in a session or two. Thanks.

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    Adding to 12 – and we’re going to be more nimble there than usual.

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    Good to see people taking note:

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/small-oil-drillers-are-turning-off-taps-more-quickly-than-anticipated-11588251194

  16. 16
    zman Says:

    This is going around

    CARES Act included tax loss carry backs (normally carry forwards)

    The Act allows 2018,2019, 2020 losses to be applied back to the prior 5 years of profits. This would then generate a tax refund check.

    More important for larger names that pay cash federal taxes in upstream and the oil service space, refining as well.

  17. 17
    zman Says:

    Group mixed after initial sell with market and dip buy, of group AR and COP slightly green on day,

    Grabbing coffee, back by natural gas inventory at bottom of hour.

    First call of the day at 11 am EST (AR)

    Eyes on BWEN in here for potential add post news. See comment here yesterday:

    https://zmansenergybrain.com/2020/04/29/wednesday-morning-115/#comment-830411

  18. 18
    zman Says:

    From $4 to $6.50, nice move here

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4333947-magnolia-oil-gas-reducing-capex-expected

    Yes unhedged, yes a lot of fintwits said short at $4 when I wrote.

    Two words: Balance sheet
    Two more words: Under spend
    Four more words: Low valuation at $30
    Two last words: heh, heh.

  19. 19
    zman Says:

    Natural Gas Quick Look

    NG flat at $1.87 just before report

    • 70 Bcf
      vs 143 Bcf year ago
      and Street of +70 Bcf.

    This puts storage at 2,210 Bcf
    54.9% above year ago.
    19.5% above 5 year.

  20. 20
    zman Says:

    Adding to 19

    This week in history:

    2020: 2,210 Bcf
    2019: 1,427 Bcf
    2018: 1,334 Bcf
    2017: 2,246 Bcf
    2016: 2,615 Bcf

    This is the lowest price for gas at this week of the year for those periods.

    2020 $1.87
    2019 $2.54
    2018 $2.781
    2017 $3.066
    2016 $2.063

    Despite the fact that this year is seeing an improving fundamental shift in prices. This is the result of a record warm winter than masked that shift and now by the LNG situation. We are on our way to all time record gas-fired generation this summer. Dry gas volumes are in decline and supply (production plus net imports) is frequently down in any given week on a YoY basis) and this before we see the impact of associated gas production reductions from oil field curtailments.

  21. 21
    zman Says:

    AR call in 10 minutes, notes to follow.

  22. 22
    zman Says:

    AR up another 15%. We’re up 108% since the 4/16 entry now. I’m not married to this one. If I don’t like what I hear don’t be surprised to see a trade. It’s up further and faster than expected when we went in.

  23. 23
    zman Says:

    AR 1Q20 presentation:

    https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_f2e9ad372ae64c666cedb5dfe99109c7/anteroresources/db/635/5721/presentation/1Q2020_Earnings+Call_Presentation_vF.pdf

  24. 24
    Denise Says:

    Blackstone disclosed 6.9% holding in ET..assuming that is why it’s up almost 10%?

  25. 25
    Denise Says:

    re #16 any idea what names would benefit the most?

  26. 26
    zman Says:

    AR 1Q20 Call Notes

    slide 2
    $178 mm reduction in opex detailed.
    $380 mm cut in capex on the per foot reduction. ($3 mm savings per well vs 2019 budget).

    slide 4 – details their per foot D&C cut

    sees path to $650 / foot over the next 12 months from the new current $715.

    • that’s not on a slide, just slipped that one in.

    slide 5 – deets on drilling and completion trends (all up and to the right to new records now save spud to TD which is at a record low 8 days).

    Slide 7 – NGL price thoughts. Strong.
    Slide 8 – drop in 2020 NGL production slide and the big gap in export cap for the heavier ends on the Gulf Coast by mid year.

  27. 27
    zman Says:

    re 25 – will circle back, taking AR notes, but that was enough time to get back to strong profits for some service names in 2013/14 from what I hear. Names like HAL could be a big bene but have not verified.

  28. 28
    zman Says:

    AR 1Q20 Call Notes 2

    NGL demand is holding up well during Covid-19

    Lower production is detailed on slide 8 chart.

    US and OPEC+ NGL production to now be in decline vs prior forecast, making NGL’s as a % of WTI rising.

    Natural gas macro
    – encouraged by the outlook
    – see 5.5 Bcfgpd lower production at YE20 vs YE19
    – but sees 6 to 7 Bcfgpd of additonal near term drop in associated gas production. BINGO.
    – see another 3.0 Bcfgpd lower by end of 2021.
    – see undersupplied gas market by end of 2020 and through 2021

    Covid Demand Impacts
    – near/medium term = 2 to 3 Bcfgpd reduction (that would be Industrial and Commercial impacts)
    – and then another 2 to 3 Bcfgpd of LNG impact over the summer.

    That makes perfect sense to me and as previously noted, the impact to production more than offsets the impact to demand.

  29. 29
    zman Says:

    AR 1Q20 Notes 3

    Asset Monetization – slide 13

    $650 to $900 mm expected range
    – see the improving NG and NGL markets helping the effort
    – nothing new today as noted in post.

    slide 14 – hedged as per before, almost total for 2020 and 2021. We still say monetize the 2021’s if you believe your macro or a piece of it.

    Going to Q&A 22 minutes in …

  30. 30
    John Deters Says:

    re#28: have not checked your macro outlook, but are you in basic agreement with Ar’s gas macro?

  31. 31
    zman Says:

    AR 1Q20 Q&A

    Q) How are you thinking about the hedge book. One of your peers monetized.

    ZComment: ha, good first question.

    A) We expect to continue to hedge. Much or most of our production will be hedged as we enter 2022. We are not afraid to monetize, have done it before, possible but not an active idea at the moment. Comfortable for now.

    Q) Four OH dry gas area pads re 50% of the 2021 plan.
    A) Those would take the place of rich gas pads we have on the schedule, not made the decision to do that yet, it’s an option depending on what prices do, time will tell.

    Q) free cash flow for 2021 at maintenance
    A) pretty neutral at current strip if we do that.

    • that does not assume the $650 / ft D&C as mentioned above as a target during 2021.

    Q) are you leaning to maintenance – know there is a trade off in FT vs liquidity
    A) yeah, that’s the new plan, right now, to hold flat, given the current strip. You get the higher net marketing expense on that plan but trade off is not swelling leverage.

    Q) What’s the thought on swap at $2.48 in 2022. Was it bank driven.
    A) not bank driven, opportunity on a pop up in the strip. We have not hedged that low before. Just wanted to be more defensive than a collar. Have been more of a fan of straight swaps (yep).

    Q) Goldman BS ? Levers to reduce debt. Do you need this done before maintenance.
    A) It’s unlikely we spend above maintenance 2021(60 wells + infrastructure).

    Q) shift in pad and how it leads into 2021
    A) 25 wells and 45 wells completed in 1Q and to be comp in 2Q respectively. Says pattern continues into 2021.

    another question on this

    Q) you have 105 TILs, we don’t get there on with one frac spread and $750 mm
    fair question.

    A) think cycle time – a lot of that capex was spent in 2019, we do 70 in 1H, then goes to 15 to 20 wells turned in line per quarter thereafter.

    (that’s how they get to 60 wells next year)

    Q) sustaining capex – we get $900 mm

    (that’s clearly too high)

    A) $8.6 mm for 12K = $500+ mm plus pad infrastructure.
    You’re $900 mm is an old number, probably a year old, that’s from a time of $3 mm per well. A little disagreement there with the analyst, basically his math is off.

  32. 32
    zman Says:

    AR 1Q20 Q&A 2

    Q) asset sales – what’s at front of line
    A) whole portfolio of talks going on, can’t really characterize it.

    Q) production mix
    A) not much change expected (68% NG, 32% liquids)

    tone fairly positive this call.

    Call wrapped up at 43 minutes.

    COP at the top of the hour.

  33. 33
    zman Says:

    re 30 – yes. You can use the pull down menu at upper left, scroll to “gassy” to find it or I can jabber about it when I get off these calls. Probably best to do both. Back in a former life I was the North American natural gas demand guy for Jefferies (early 2000’s and the imports guy and the GOM production guy as well) and while I do less granular work on that front now vs then (used to track all the nukes and chat with the steels, food co’s refiners) I have a more streamlined process now that gets me to peaks and troughs on storage and directionality of supply and demand.

    We’ll have a revised peak storage forecast out in a couple of weaks but suffice to say the warm winter yielded the poor comps noted above in #19 and masked the peak and subsequent decline in US dry gas production. You can see this in the weekly data we put out each Friday post.

    Grabbing coffee, COP in 10.

  34. 34
    zman Says:

    Here, take a look at this one:

    https://zmansenergybrain.com/2020/04/08/wednesday-morning-natural-gas-slide-show/

  35. 35
    zman Says:

    COP webcast link

    https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/5dnmt7qt

  36. 36
    zman Says:

    AR up 19% at end of call.

  37. 37
    zman Says:

    re 33 – it’s likely RRC (unowned) has similar macro color tomorrow. COG will be less strident about it most likely but no doubt has the same line of thought.

  38. 38
    zman Says:

    COP 1Q20 Notes

    • just things not covered above.
    • not guiding, just providing insight

    • making rational decisions from a balance sheet and asset base position of strength.

    Going to Q&A 6 minutes in …

  39. 39
    zman Says:

    COP 1Q20 Q&A

    Q) Curtailing and risks to recoverability
    A)
    – We are curtailing as much as we can right now. Don’t think it’s right to sell for these prices. Expect govt and other player curtailments.
    – two aspects: 1) how quick and 2) risk of damage.
    Most of L48 and AK and Canada can be brought back in a matter of weeks. Surmount is at minimal to keep warm,
    AK – not shutting completely, going to minimal level.
    NO RISK of reservoir damage.

    Q) thoughts prorationing subject
    A) we have not been supportive of that, the market will do that.

    Q) logistics of curtailing
    A) plenty of experience in quickly cutting production, easier as this is planned vs cuts for natural events.

    Q) Dividend sustainable
    A) we set the company up years ago to withstand downturns and remain committed to return of capital to shareholders. That’s a pretty strong affirmation it’s not going to get cut soon.

    There’s too much G&A running around in this business. Expects to see consolidation.

  40. 40
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 39: COP is a name that should pick up Permian assets on the cheap to bolster their LT portfolio.

  41. 41
    zman Says:

    COP 1Q20 Q&A 2

    AK – I think he said 100,000 bopd reduced volumes but call broke up for me.

    Did say Willow project is not deferred. Exploration wells (2 of 4 drilled) got what they were looking for, have not decisioned yet.

    Harpoon exploration area well – jury still out

    Q) LNG realizations
    A) held up well, only down 4% vs 4Q, lagged so will be down more this quarter, notes vast majority is under long term contract, 90% of LNG are term, less than 10% spot.

    Q) cash tax
    A) COP still in a non cash tax position, will see large losses this year so it will be > 2022 in the U.S. We’re in a 0% tax paying position in the US and will stay there for some time.

    Q) question on whether Covid-19 changes investment parameters
    A) time will tell, early to see if demand completely recovers or not. Right now rely on our strong balance sheet and low cost structure. Will not take years to adjust (at least not the 5 years to decide on their view that the analyst asked).

    Q) AK pricing
    A) normal relation to Brent broken until CA and west coast demand picks up.

  42. 42
    zman Says:

    Zorg noting chunky blocks in BWEN going across. Volume still significantly higher than normal in the wake of the news this week and they gave back almost all the pop on that. Again, please see comment from yesterday.

  43. 43
    zman Says:

    re 40 – right now I think they are feeling pretty defensive. Would make sense but would have to be a better than good deal for them. Hard to buy stuff also when you have suspended guidance due to uncertainty. Maybe later this year but I’d guess they’d rather not bottom fish.

  44. 44
    zman Says:

    from Tom regarding a question I had the other day, via email:

    “Z – Your volume question was answered by them on the first question asked. They are not seeing volume decline much at all. NGL’s UP because a pipe opened in first Q of ’19. Not open for full quarter. They believe the volume declines will come from 1. highest cost guys and 2. highest transportation cost guys (not their clients). They are finding more pipe to store crude. Not expecting a topping. Expecting a decline in production. Coverage ratio 1.6 so divy not in trouble. “

  45. 45
    zman Says:

    COP 1Q20 Q&A 3

    We have not faced a situation in the US or around the world in which we had difficulty placing our crude. That may change.

    We just don’t like these prices.

    But these are voluntary curtailments for now.

  46. 46
    zman Says:

    Why is the market off as much as it is today, been on calls … jobless claims the cause, concern over eco data tomorrow?

  47. 47
    zman Says:

    COP is likely to be allocated some of the Norway Watch cuts noted in the post. It’ll be low single digits mbopd’s

    He also notes the tax changes over there which is helpful.

    COP on Indonesia – we sell gas there, not going to be affected by Indonesia participation in OPEC+

    COP on Malaysia who is now saying they will participate in OPEC+ … there may be some impact to COP from that but don’t have details yet.

    Q) COP oil mix in L48 – would you expect it to become more gassy next 12 months due to GOR shift (this was Wyoming’s point the other day)
    A) said there will be some but it won’t be significant.

    Call over, tone we label as neutral-positive.

  48. 48
    zman Says:

    OT – getting on a call, back in 15 minutes.

  49. 49
    tomdavis12 Says:

    46 Fed chair Powell expecting a bumpier ride than market seems to expect. Since he is the market put, have to watch his comments.

  50. 50
    zman Says:

    re 49 – thanks much

    OT -grabbing lunch, back in a bit.

  51. 51
    zman Says:

    No idea how much of this is real:

    BREAKING: U.S. officials crafting plans to punish or demand compensation from China over virus, as Trump fumes in private over pandemic.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/30/trump-china-coronavirus-retaliation/

  52. 52
    zman Says:

    re 51 – wonder what that does to the value of the dollar … could argue it a couple of different ways.

  53. 53
    zman Says:

    EIA 914 Watch – Natural Gas

    Feb down 0.6% or 0.64 Bcfgpd vs January.

    EIA 914 Watch – Oil

    12.833 mm bopd, vs 12.746 mm bopd in Jan.

    The EIA STEO was at 12.712
    The IEA was at 12.649

    So monthly data here higher than expected, unlikely that means much to the May STEO aside from a slight bump on 1Q, rest of year will slam lower on the forecast.

  54. 54
    zman Says:

    The deal gap month:

    OPEC APRIL OIL OUTPUT RISES 1.61 MILLION BPD MONTH ON MONTH TO 30.25 MLN BPD, HIGHEST SINCE MARCH 2019 -REUTERS SURVEY

  55. 55
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 43: COP CEO on CNBC now. Said they are looking carefully at M&A. Also said it needs to be accretive, etc. But they are watching closely should an oppy present itself. Reiterated that consolidation needs to happen in the industry.

  56. 56
    tomdavis12 Says:

    VAL next offshore BK candidate.

  57. 57
    zman Says:

    re 55 – thanks

    re 56 – makes sense.

  58. 58
    zman Says:

    FYI – would not be surprised to see COG with a little under performance on volumes this Q, would be due to some extreme low price prompting curtailments during the quarter, don’t know for certain but know they did some. Street is near the upper end of the range but there is a range for a reason.

  59. 59
    zman Says:

    re 58 – this should really not be viewed as any kind of concern, name will remain low cost and low leverage and low hedge in the group. It remains our largest position, trading up 5+% into the report.

  60. 60
    zman Says:

    AR with a $3 handle.

  61. 61
    zman Says:

    Beerthirty, back with comments on COG and others about an hour after they report.

  62. 62
    zman Says:

    BCEI – still cheapest name in group with best balance sheet of names we track, break out continues.

  63. 63
    zman Says:

    COG on the tape, reading, dividend maintained.

  64. 64
    zman Says:

    COG quick

    Volumes with the guidance, lower half of range and below the street slightly.

    Its a penny eps beat at $0.14 but a decent sized miss on EBITDA.

    Prices off 49% YoY and the volumes will do that.

    Dividend maintained at 10 cents per quarter.

    Borrowing base reaffired

    Net debt to 1Q20 annualized EBITDAX is 1.1x vs 0.8x at last quarter which is not bad at all considering prices. They had free cash flow and built cash and reduced debt during the quarter.

    Guidance trimmed slightly for the full year. There is a bit more 2Q swoon that expected on a one pad remedial work (one well) delay, shifts some completions more to the middle of the year. No change to capex.

    Estimates will inch off a bit on this for 2020 but should improve slightly 2021.

  65. 65
    zman Says:

    Draft from tomorrow’s post

    SWN (unowned) Reports 1Q20 Slight Beat; Borrowing Base Trimmed but OK, Guidance Maintained

    Production of 2.159 Bcfepd vs 2.21 Bcfepd expected
    EBITDA of $206 mm vs $200 mm expected,
    Discount to Nymex was $0.42 (upper end of thinking for them),
    EPS of $0.10 (ex items) vs $0.08 expected,
    Excludes a non cash ceiling test write down of $1.48 B.
    Guidance:
    Capex:  Expecting lower end of prior guidance of $860 to $940 mm
    Production: No change to prior guidance of 3.21 Bcfepd (77% natural gas).
    Higlights:
    Net cash flow was $191 mm vs spending of $237 mm.
    They highlighted a SW Appalachia WV rich acreage pad that set a new record of 170 MM/d (20% above the previous 4 well pad record and they repeat that area wells here are typically 60% NG/40% liquids); more drilling was already planned in the area as a shift to high rate well targeting this year.
    In NE Appalachia they highlighted a 60% jump in 30 day rates to 24 MM/d average vs year ago levels.
    Balance Sheet:
    Net debt to annualized EBITDA of 2.8x vs 2.1x last quarter. Debt was up slightly on the outspend and EBITDA contracted on prices.
    Redetermination at $1.8 B vs prior $2.0 B; liquidity moves down from $1.8 B to $1.4 B all in.  This appears to be adequate
    Conference Call: Today, 10 am EST.  We will be on the replay here.
    Nutshell: Solid quarter.  We’re not fans of this much debt, normally and they continue to outspend at a time when we see that as imprudent. We don’t own the name but have recently opted to take on a bit more gassy space risk in gas and will be listening a little more attentively to the call than usual.

  66. 66
    zman Says:

    Early estimate on next week’s storage build is +90 to +110 Bcf which is fine.

  67. 67
    zman Says:

    RRC (unowned) on the tape, reading

  68. 68
    zman Says:

    HAL on the tape laying off another 240 in OK.

  69. 69
    nrgyman Says:

    Energy bonds getting a boost from Fed program:

    https://seekingalpha.com/news/3567422-energy-company-bonds-enjoy-boost-after-fed-expands-loan-program?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&mail_subject=hpr-wpx-energy-company-bonds-enjoy-boost-after-fed-expands-loan-program&utm_campaign=rta-stock-news&utm_content=link-3

  70. 70
    zman Says:

    re 69 – thanks

  71. 71
    zman Says:

    AR snapped up through the 200 day sma today.

  72. 72
    zman Says:

    US PRES TRUMP ADMINISTRATION: STATES THEY HAVE NO PLANS TO TAKE EQUITY POSITIONS, OR NATIONALISE ENERGY COMPANIES

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