21
Mar

Wrap – Week Ended 03/20/20

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No trades last week.

The Blotter is updated.

Free Stuff Last Week:

Questions and comments under The Wrap will be addressed in the Monday post.

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17 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 03/20/20”

  1. 1
    Baylor Says:

    wow looks like natural gas net shorts went WAYYYY down and yet NG flounders at lifetime lows.

    Interesting

    Am i reading that right?

  2. 2
    life’s-a-gas Says:

    The Decline and Fall of the Gulf’s Oil Empire Is Looming

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-22/saudi-russia-oil-price-war-heralds-end-to-gulf-luxury-lifestyle?srnd=premium

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    re 1 – yes you are. Note that CFTC data is mid week also but yes, way down, first time we’ve seen that, and gas fell after the end date on that. Also note oil, that surge mid week was mucho covering.

    No doubt margin requirement tightening played a role here.

    Your questions under the Friday post will be part of the subscriber mailbag in the Monday post.

    Re 2 – thanks much

  4. 4
    Baylor Says:

    Re 3 thx. I can’t understand how we had so much NG covering and the price of NG went down. Unless there was re-shorting afterwards.

    I may just cut losses there since it’s now completely not making sense

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    re 4 –

    the report runs through the previous week’s Tuesday. (so Wednesday of the preceding week through Tuesday of last week).

    https://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deanymelof.htm

    We saw high volume on the 10th and 11th with prices at almost $2 on last Wednesday, then selling after that with other markets. Note in the table above longs also fell. This was more about margin requirements than fundamentals this week. Higher margin requirement prompting some to walk away.

    I’m not in anything for a short term pop or drop at the moment.

  6. 6
    brodway Says:

    Futures point to another big down day tomorrow. Have to throw out some technical analysis when there is panic on a national and global level.

    This is no time to me brave, but once things settle stock pickers will find some tremendous opportunities that should serve them well over next 12-18 months

  7. 7
    brodway Says:

    interesting that silver broke support and trading at $12. have to go back to the 2008 crash to find those prices. i’d think gold and silver would be some assets that would be utilized as flight to safety options but it seems every asset class is being sold off

  8. 8
    Baylor Says:

    NG historic epic collapse

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    re 6 – no Senate deal yet.

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    Delaware saying stay inside until May 15.

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    Germany prohibits meeting in groups of more than two.

    etc…

  12. 12
    brodway Says:

    re: 9

    some of these leaders really need to get their heads out of their asses. its not about politics anymore. its about the American people

  13. 13
    Baylor Says:

    I don’t think the senate deal will matter. Everyone knows they will do something. People are al afraid they or loved ones will be dead in days in the millions

  14. 14
    Baylor Says:

    Re 12 gota make sure the grift is there babyyyyy

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    The post will be out extremely early tomorrow morning, back then.

  16. 16
    brodway Says:

    re:

    i think the millions estimate is a bit overzealous. there will certainly be a number of casualties from this horrible virus, but it won’t be the black plague. many people have recovered from it and there are numerous people who have mild symptoms from it.

  17. 17
    brodway Says:

    WTI futures starting to firm. Obviously $20 is lie a spring board. Its bounced off that level before. S&P seems to be slowing as it approaches first heavy support area around 2150. There is heavy congestion below at different levels between 1900 and 2150….There was a period between the beginning of 2015 and end of 2016 where S&P traded in a very tight range before finding enough buyers taking off to new highs in 2017. I really think that heavy congestion area is where index will find a more comfortable. That is just my prediction. I’ve been wrong many times before.

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