14
Mar

Wrap – Week Ended 03/13/20

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Negatives:

  • Oil prices,
  • Oil directed and horizontal rig gains. This is going to be temporary.  Decisions on rigs are made in advance of the current week's pricing,
  • Crack spreads,
  • Brent-WTI spread,
  • Equity prices (broad market, convention energy, renewable energy).

Positives:

  • Natural gas prices (strip almost to $2.25),
  • YoY supply growth has slowed to a crawl (see Friday post),
  • Non heating natural gas demand (again, Friday post) is quite strong while overall demand is masked by the 2019/2020 non winter.
  • Big drop in active spreads this report. A lot more to come. See last Friday's post for our growing list of 2020 capex reductions.

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The trading blotter is updated.

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Questions and comments under The Wrap will be addressed in the Monday post.

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9 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 03/13/20”

  1. 1
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Midstream – Worst 3 week period for sector EVER. (AMZ – AMNA). YTD 4 names have had multiple million $ purchases and some more than one name. PAGP 2 KMI 2 ET 2 EPD 1

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    Fed cuts rates to 0.

  3. 3
    Baylor Says:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/15/federal-reserve-cuts-rates-to-zero-and-launches-massive-700-billion-quantitative-easing-program.html

  4. 4
    Baylor Says:

    You just bet me to it Z

    368 dead today in Italy

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    Futures opened limit down, halted.

  6. 6
    ram Says:

    Good evening Zman.
    I’m doing my part to support oil. I practically burned through a whole tank of gas trying to get groceries here in Orlando. I still can’t find important paper 🧻 products. I’ll be driving around tomorrow as well. Hopefully you and your family are doing well.

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    Thanks for posting the link Baylor.

    Ram – be safe. Nitrile or latex gloves at ATMs, card readers, shopping car handles, use and toss.

  8. 8
    Baylor Says:

    Since were all fighting the hoarders, any suggestions of things one should maybe buy to get through this over the next 1 to 3 months? Just looking for some ideas from other people as I have my own list that I’ve been accumulating. Fortunately I saw this coming a few weeks ago and it already handled most of the necessities. I did read somewhere that 98% of all vitamins in the United States come from China I don’t know if that’s true or not I’ll try to find a link

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    re 8

    There are a bunch of good lists on the web.

    We’ve got a lot of extra coffee, tuna, pasta, eggs (they keep a good while longer than you might think, canned soups and beans, dry beans, tea, ramen, gatorade, flour (3 loaves of bread made today), frozen veggies, pizzas etc. Bleach, gloves, tilex, paper products, soap (lipid barrier of viruses pretty susceptible to a good surfactant etc. Zinc came today, amazon, no trouble getting it but note in general that Amazon Prime shipments have gone from 1 to 2 days to 5+ days for most things I click on in the last 48 hours. We made a bunch of runs last three weeks to accumulate, was in stores yesterday and it’s a bit nutty in there. Likely we go delivery for the next week or go very early when crowds not around. Whole Foods > $35 is free, Kroger is cheap to order from. Virus keeps on plastic a lot longer than paper, using gloves to unpack after it’s dropped on the porch.

    New thoughts are that asymptomatic spread is more common than previously thought. Kids may be the biggest spreaders at some point. Good idea to close the schools and flatten the curve so the healthcare system can keep up (same number of people , just infected over a longer period with less of a crescendo). I’m a fan of curfews anyway and it would let me not be the bad unfun dad all the time but either way, mine are staying with me or in.

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