01
Mar

Wrap – Week Ended 02/28/20

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Worst week for markets since 2008. Commodities got slammed especially hard. Renewables are holding up considerable better than commodity price driven names. Expect OPEC+ response this week including cooperation from Russia.  We strongly suspect the cut will be > 1 mm bopd and could be substantially larger as was the case in 2008 when markets were looking for a 2 mm bopd type cut and got double that.  Also think the duration will be key and would like to see more than a simple 2Q cut.  Look for the expected 1Q20 rig count pop to begin to reverse lower soon. Look for the EIA STEO to show another downward revision to the oil and natural gas forecasts for U.S. production on March 10th.

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Questions and comments under The Wrap will be addressed in the Monday post.

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There have been no trades in the ZLT for the last three weeks and the blotter is updated.

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3 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 02/28/20”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    China says > 90% of state run factories are back on line.
    ~ South China Morning Post

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    Bit of sell the fear, buy the outbreak in progress.

    https://www.dailyfx.com/crude-oil

  3. 3
    Baylor Says:

    Re-entry point for 40-k’s and adds likely to come in the next 10-14 days based on analysis of prior pandemics (zeka, sars, mers, Ebola)

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