11
Jan

Wrap – Week Ended 1/10/20

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2010 Free Stuff:

We get the EIA STEO, the OPEC MOMR, and the IEA Monthly this week.

Holdings Watch: 2 trades this week.

Questions and comments will be addressed in the Monday Post.

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3 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 1/10/20”

  1. 1
    Baylor Says:

    What needs to happen for OAS to Appreciate? It used to be the darling of the Bakken and the premiere holding therewent from need $50 to $5 to near $18 to $3

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    re 1 – re OAS (unowned)

    Thoughts:

    – needs to find a way to reduce debt, via monetization of midstream assets. Could sell some non core acreage but doubt it would help in a significant way.

    – net debt to annualized 3Q19 EBITDA of 2.7x is high vs what the Street wants. Sub 2x or better sub 1.5x would garner more interest.

    – they also have a debt wall of significant size in 2021-2023 ahead of them. Debt is B2, BB- , will likely be higher coupon when they do it if they do it near term.

    – Move to go two basin was in hind sight ill timed. Slow push there early didn’t garner a lot of interest in the name either.

    – New management at very top would not hurt either as you could have buying interest instead of a steady stream of asset sales.

    – slower growth out of the Bakken in general would help with differentials there as well which have ranged widely over the last couple of years. When people look to “oily” basins its down near the bottom in terms of diffs (DJ is better or worse from time to time) but Permian and EFS are far better.

    – they need to move to free cash on the corporation as a whole and not just on the E&P segment. People want return of capital and free cash on a segment isn’t really all that interesting if it doesn’t eventually get your a dividend and/or share buyback.

    – they have some legal issues that are a concern as well.

  3. 3
    Baylor Says:

    Thanks. Trying to weigh taking the 60% loss vs hanging on and it maybe becoming a 100% loss

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