04
Jan

Wrap – Week Ended 1/3/20

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A little poll we ran over on Twitter Friday afternoon:

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Interesting Chart Watch: Record U.S. Exports.

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Interesting Chart Watch:  Net Imports - 52 weeks of record lows, with 2019 ending in a whimper.

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The Blotter is updated.

We've added an active U.S. frac spread to the rigs portion of The Wrap.

Questions about the site?  Inquire at zman@zmansenergybrain.com

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26 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 1/3/20”

  1. 1
    Baylor Says:

    Seems the NG companies are working to drill themselves back into BK with production hitting a record again and no winter to be found. When will they ever learn

  2. 2
    Baylor Says:

    Wasn’t bastardi calling for a very cold winter? I tend to do the opposite of what he puts out as he always seems to be wrong. It is predicting weather of course but still it’s what he’s supposedly paid to do

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    BBC News – Iran rolls back nuclear deal commitments
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-51001167

  4. 4
    Baylor Says:

    Didn’t that happen when Trump nuked Obama’s deal?

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    re 4 – No, it didn’t. They’ve been slowly loosening it up, enriching a bit more but not really crossing the line. Hoped continued compliance would prompt EU to convince US to reverse the sanctions.

    They just gave up on that hope.

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    Rumor has it Iran calling for $80 mm bounty on President Trump.

  7. 7
    Baylor Says:

    Ah. I think that’s what was expected anyway but will be interesting ifnhow this all plays out was worth it. Time shall tell.

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    Could be.

    Re Bastardi – he’s a perma cold from what I can tell.

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    U.S. IS DISAPPOINTED IN VOTE BY IRAQ’S PARLIAMENT CALLING FOR FOREIGN TROOPS TO BE ORDERED OUT OF COUNTRY -STATE DEPARTMENT

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    re 9 – how long until the U.S. sanctions Iraqi oil?

    Venezeula about to get hall pass?

  11. 11
    Baylor Says:

    Are we setting up for a 2014-2016 type NG pricing?

  12. 12
    zman Says:

    re 11 – not sure I get the question. Prices widely ranged over that period.

    Here it is by quarters:

    $4.72
    $4.59
    $3.95
    $3.83
    $2.81
    $2.74
    $2.73
    $2.23
    $1.98
    $2.24
    $2.53
    $3.18

    By the way #1 I would not agree with. You can’t paint all of them with the same brush.

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    re 12 – are you asking if we are in the latter quarters there, like 1Q16?

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    $64 handle.

  15. 15
    Baylor Says:

    Is this oil website working for y’all?

    http://www.cx-portal.com/_smb/wti.php

  16. 16
    zman Says:

    re 15 – that site is not secure.

    I suggest this one:
    https://www.dailyfx.com/crude-oil

  17. 17
    Baylor Says:

    I’m saying much technical analysis seems to suggest we’re heading Sin $2 and would likely stay there for a decent amount of time. Potentially several months.

    Artic cold could help but that is getting less and less likely and yet at the same time we’re appropching 100 bcf production which seems to be lacking in discipline.

  18. 18
    Baylor Says:

    Sin = under

  19. 19
    Baylor Says:

    Re 16 how do you mean not secure?

  20. 20
    Baylor Says:

    Last time CRC was over $70, CRC was near $40

    Maybe a trade there

  21. 21
    zman Says:

    re 17

    – I don’t see TA in that
    – production growth is rapidly coming to a halt.
    You said NG companies. I said not all of them. We are pretty selective with what we own.
    – I am not a gas bull.
    – potentially several months? Oh, quite possible, sure. I think the strip is overly pessimistic for reasons walked through several times on the site.
    – we will have the Natural Gas Macro 2020 piece out this week.

    re 19 – SSL expired

    re 20 – I assume the first CRC was actually oil (Brent). We own a little personally. As previously noted levered names bounce more when oil prices spike. But it’s got: A) too much debt and B) it’s in CA, so we don’t want it in the ZLT.

  22. 22
    brodway Says:

    geopolitical risks that had been discussed here playing out. would think that as oil names start to cross important moving averages to the upside, traders will take notice. this may be the turn around i’ve been waiting for before committing new money to the sector.

  23. 23
    Baylor Says:

    Re 21 yes WTI not CRC the first time it was mentioned

  24. 24
    zman Says:

    re 22 – 55% of ZLT now above 200 day sma.

  25. 25
    Baylor Says:

    Re 22 agreed with the key concern being when and if itnimpacts demand and can these guys stay disciplined for once

  26. 26
    Monday Morning | Zman's Energy Brain ~ oil, gas, stocks, etc… Says:

    […] Baylor on Wrap – Week Ended 1/3/20 […]

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