04
Jan
Wrap – Week Ended 1/3/20
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A little poll we ran over on Twitter Friday afternoon:
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Interesting Chart Watch: Record U.S. Exports.
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Interesting Chart Watch: Net Imports - 52 weeks of record lows, with 2019 ending in a whimper.
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The Blotter is updated.
We've added an active U.S. frac spread to the rigs portion of The Wrap.
Questions about the site? Inquire at zman@zmansenergybrain.com
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Seems the NG companies are working to drill themselves back into BK with production hitting a record again and no winter to be found. When will they ever learn
January 5th, 2020 at 1:17 pmWasn’t bastardi calling for a very cold winter? I tend to do the opposite of what he puts out as he always seems to be wrong. It is predicting weather of course but still it’s what he’s supposedly paid to do
January 5th, 2020 at 1:24 pmBBC News – Iran rolls back nuclear deal commitments
January 5th, 2020 at 1:52 pmhttps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-51001167
Didn’t that happen when Trump nuked Obama’s deal?
January 5th, 2020 at 2:14 pmre 4 – No, it didn’t. They’ve been slowly loosening it up, enriching a bit more but not really crossing the line. Hoped continued compliance would prompt EU to convince US to reverse the sanctions.
They just gave up on that hope.
January 5th, 2020 at 2:32 pmRumor has it Iran calling for $80 mm bounty on President Trump.
January 5th, 2020 at 2:33 pmAh. I think that’s what was expected anyway but will be interesting ifnhow this all plays out was worth it. Time shall tell.
January 5th, 2020 at 2:43 pmCould be.
Re Bastardi – he’s a perma cold from what I can tell.
January 5th, 2020 at 2:54 pmU.S. IS DISAPPOINTED IN VOTE BY IRAQ’S PARLIAMENT CALLING FOR FOREIGN TROOPS TO BE ORDERED OUT OF COUNTRY -STATE DEPARTMENT
January 5th, 2020 at 3:50 pmre 9 – how long until the U.S. sanctions Iraqi oil?
Venezeula about to get hall pass?
January 5th, 2020 at 3:55 pmAre we setting up for a 2014-2016 type NG pricing?
January 5th, 2020 at 4:48 pmre 11 – not sure I get the question. Prices widely ranged over that period.
Here it is by quarters:
$4.72
$4.59
$3.95
$3.83
$2.81
$2.74
$2.73
$2.23
$1.98
$2.24
$2.53
$3.18
By the way #1 I would not agree with. You can’t paint all of them with the same brush.
January 5th, 2020 at 5:15 pmre 12 – are you asking if we are in the latter quarters there, like 1Q16?
January 5th, 2020 at 5:18 pm$64 handle.
January 5th, 2020 at 8:59 pmIs this oil website working for y’all?
http://www.cx-portal.com/_smb/wti.php
January 5th, 2020 at 9:05 pmre 15 – that site is not secure.
I suggest this one:
January 5th, 2020 at 9:14 pmhttps://www.dailyfx.com/crude-oil
I’m saying much technical analysis seems to suggest we’re heading Sin $2 and would likely stay there for a decent amount of time. Potentially several months.
Artic cold could help but that is getting less and less likely and yet at the same time we’re appropching 100 bcf production which seems to be lacking in discipline.
January 5th, 2020 at 9:14 pmSin = under
January 5th, 2020 at 9:15 pmRe 16 how do you mean not secure?
January 5th, 2020 at 9:15 pmLast time CRC was over $70, CRC was near $40
Maybe a trade there
January 5th, 2020 at 9:18 pmre 17
– I don’t see TA in that
– production growth is rapidly coming to a halt.
You said NG companies. I said not all of them. We are pretty selective with what we own.
– I am not a gas bull.
– potentially several months? Oh, quite possible, sure. I think the strip is overly pessimistic for reasons walked through several times on the site.
– we will have the Natural Gas Macro 2020 piece out this week.
re 19 – SSL expired
re 20 – I assume the first CRC was actually oil (Brent). We own a little personally. As previously noted levered names bounce more when oil prices spike. But it’s got: A) too much debt and B) it’s in CA, so we don’t want it in the ZLT.
January 5th, 2020 at 9:32 pmgeopolitical risks that had been discussed here playing out. would think that as oil names start to cross important moving averages to the upside, traders will take notice. this may be the turn around i’ve been waiting for before committing new money to the sector.
January 5th, 2020 at 9:32 pmRe 21 yes WTI not CRC the first time it was mentioned
January 5th, 2020 at 10:11 pmre 22 – 55% of ZLT now above 200 day sma.
January 5th, 2020 at 11:14 pmRe 22 agreed with the key concern being when and if itnimpacts demand and can these guys stay disciplined for once
January 5th, 2020 at 11:17 pm[…] Baylor on Wrap – Week Ended 1/3/20 […]
January 6th, 2020 at 8:36 am