14
Jul
Wrap – Week Ended 7/13/18
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The ZLT was up 0.8% last week.
The Blotter is updated (there were no trades in the ZLT last week).
ZLT Cash remains at 18%.
ZLT positions will be updated on Sunday.
Questions and comments under The Wrap will be addressed in the Monday post.
Interested in Z4 Research? Check out the How To ZEB link at upper left or send us a note at zman@zmansenergybrain.com
Have a good weekend.
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Latest short positions: Highest I can ever recall. CPE 50.4mm shares or 25% of float. JAG 20.5mm or 50.45% of float. I believe both still have shares available without an expensive borrow but need to check during trading hours. Playing the "Permian Pause" I guess. Z looks like your nod to JAG over CPE after the last quarter #'s was a great call. BoooYahh.
July 14th, 2018 at 10:29 am😎
July 14th, 2018 at 10:40 amZLT positions updated
http://zmansenergybrain.com/subscriber-data/holdings-wiki/
July 15th, 2018 at 10:58 amWhich is a better buy, CPE or JAG? I've been following CPE since early 2017 and am baffled by the price action since it's Permian acreage add-on and stock dilution. Was the deal really that bad?
July 15th, 2018 at 2:01 pmre 4 – the latest acquisition was not bad, pricing was actually cheap. We addressed that purchase here:
http://zmansenergybrain.com/2018/05/25/t-g-i-f-151/
(we have opened that post so you can view it)
The name remains under pressure due to outspend and Permian malaise in names that don't have full basis protection. We own both but own more JAG at present. We had Catalyst List and Cheat Sheet Updates out for both in posts last week (Tuesday was CPE, Thursday was JAG).
July 15th, 2018 at 2:06 pmThanks Zman! Appreciate your prompt response as well as opening up that post for me. I believe CPE is scheduled to become FCF positive in 2H of 2019 (not that far away) and alot of the newly acquired land is adjacent to their existing properties (~50%), but I guess the issuance of more shares was much more negative than any other benefits of the acquisition. Earnings in a few weeks, we'll see how much the Midland diffs affect its earnings as well as future guidance on production growth.
Will look into your subscription services in the future as right now, I'm paying for 2 other services and need to manage the # of resources I'm using….
July 15th, 2018 at 2:11 pmre 6 – Understood, we will be here.
July 15th, 2018 at 2:15 pmZ – what are you expecting from MTDR out of earnings?
July 15th, 2018 at 4:48 pmre 8 – thanks, that is is the topic of Tuesday's post.
July 15th, 2018 at 5:00 pmIf you would, please update your previous simple list of the Z heavily/significantly Permian companies prioritized/grouped as regards comparative impact of the bottleneck. For example: least impacted, medium, max.
Second, a similar simple comparative list of oily holdings regarding percentage of hedges 2019.
(For both of the above, ideally including some of the frequently mentioned non-Z names where applicable such as CDEV, CRZO, DVN please.)
Not looking to burden you with unneeded detailed calculations, just an off-the-top-of-your-head ballpark guide to help with medium term purchase decisions. I expect these are two nagging issues for quite a few followers.
July 15th, 2018 at 6:29 pmre 10 – sure. Will do for Tuesday.
July 15th, 2018 at 6:49 pmRe 11. Super, many thanks.
July 15th, 2018 at 7:25 pmRe 11 awesome. Thanks
July 15th, 2018 at 8:25 pmcompany web site
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July 16th, 2018 at 2:23 am