24
Jun
Wrap – Week Ended
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OPEC Watch: On Friday, OPEC delivered along expected lines. A 1 mm bopd increase figure (decrease of cuts) was mentioned frequently before the meeting and though a specific number was not in the official OPEC communique, a move to 100% compliance was ... which translates into 1 mm bopd more production from a headline sense of the number. OPEC acknowledged that not all players could lean into a pro rata increase at this time and as such we may see some names moving over quota to compensate at the end of the day. Everyone seems to think that the increase will be gradual and given ongoing strong growth we see tightness persisting until 1Q19 on the ~ 2 mm bopd season ramp from 2Q18 to 4Q19. Saudi imports to the U.S. will be key but our sense is they very much know this and won't want to drastically inflate the world's most easily watched inventory metric.
OPEC+ Watch: On Saturday, OPEC+ delivered the same 100% of December 2016 level curtailments.
Presidential Tweet Prevention Watch: And for clarification, Saudi added for those thinking there would be a nominal 1 mm bopd announced but only a 0.6 to 0.7 mm bopd actually delivered, that in fact 1 mm bopd would be the increase in production.
The ZLT was up 4.4% last week.
The Blotter is updated.
Questions and comments under The Wrap will be addressed in the Monday post.
Enjoy the rest of the weekend.
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