01
Jul

Wrap – Week Ended 6/30/17

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EIA 914 Watch:

  • April oil - down 0.3% from March with Gulf of Mexico leading the way. 
  • April natural gas - down 0.1% from March. Also the GOM.
  • We will have the Natural Gas Macro update slide show in Monday's post.
  • We will have the by region oil production slide show in Monday's post. 

EIA also reported a 0.1 mm bopd decline in week to week U.S. production (combined Lower 48 and AK) last week which helped to buoy oil. Part of the drop should be attributable to storm action in the Gulf but as noted we have seen the EIA as over estimating production gains in the States for some time now. The EIA's own STEO and weekly report averages are out of alignment. The EIA has also repeated reduced its monthly read on production from the shales with new iterations of the Drilling Productivity report. They have been, in our view, simply extrapolating too much in the way of productivity gains across a growing rig count with little apperent regard for: 1) a rising DUC count and 2) the fact that operators are adding rigs outside of core of core areas now. We note that EIA recently transitioned from rapid new well productivity increases to flatness. Interesting.  We posted recently on this here.

Rig Count Watch: Down 2 oil rigs last week. First drop since January. As noted for the last couple of months, we expect rig count growth in the States to slow near current prices.  The decision to add a rig is often made months in advance and the Permian players, the public ones at least, are not expected to significantly add to rigs in 2H17.  Please see the list of Permian rig plans in this post early this week. 

Questions and comments under The Wrap will be addressed in the Monday post. 

The Blotter is updated.  

  • We sold RICE in the wake of the EQT acquisition this week for $26.41, up 21% to our average cost. RICE was 7.5% of our portfolio at the time of sale. 
  • We added to a Service name. See blotter for details. 

Cash in the ZLT is now roughly 34%. 

One Response to “Wrap – Week Ended 6/30/17”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    From Monday's post

    Natural Gas Imports: April 2017 net imports were -0.3 Bcfgpd.  For the first time, U.S. exports outweighed imports for a full month average. This turn is as we have long expected. We note that for the summer of 2017,  our storage model anticipates a 1 to 2 Bcfgpd reduction in YoY net imports. April was 2.5 Bcfgpd below April 2016. 

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