Wrap – Week Ended 12.09.16



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Our ZLT was up 1.5% on the week and is up 48.6% on the year (new 2016 high). 

The XOP was up 3% on the week and is up 42.9% on the year (new 2016 high). 

The XLE was up 2%  on the week and is up 26.8% on the year (new 2016 high). 

The S&P 500 was up 3%  on the week and is up 13.4% on the year (new 2016 high). 


Posts last week included updated 2017 EBITDA estimates for CRZO, NFX, and MTDR.

The Trading Blotter is updated.


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18 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 12.09.16”

  1. 1
    brodway Says:

    Yesterday during the Trump thank you rally in Michigan, American oil, shale oil was mentioned at least a half dozen times as a leading American industry that will get plenty of support from the new administration. It feels good that American innovation and ingenuity in the oil sector is finally being recognized and not pushed down like a nuisance.

    If i have the time next week, i'd like to outline my thoughts on the new environment that i see for American oil in 2017 and onward. I feel its important to reflect upon and reiterate what has transpired over the last 3 months, as i do think its a game changer not necessarily on a micro level, but certainly on a macro level…..some of what i'm thinking has been touched upon in the first post by RB on Friday.

  2. 2
    zman Says:


  3. 3
    Baylor Says:

    Re 2 does that include Russia?  I was thinking not

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    re 3 – yes, Russia was supposed to be 0.3 mm bopd of the total 0.6 mm bopd Non OPEC contribution talked about at the 11/30 meeting. Russia has said they would cut 0.3 mm bopd over time. 

  5. 5
    Baylor Says:

    Exxon CEO to be sec of state?  Tho guys on that if true from an oil perspective (not political)?


  6. 6
    Baylor Says:

    Thoughts on that

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    re 6 – that's been out there about a week.  No thoughts on it as it relates to our group by me, don't see that it really does. 

  8. 8
    zman Says:



  9. 9
    nrgyman Says:

    Story on the OPEC/non-OPEC deal:


  10. 10
    sc4 Says:

    Have been told by people who should know that Saudi actual production is now below their agreed cut so that their statement could well be true. That said, given natural decline rates and restrained reinvestment these too probably work to reduce Saudi output as well. Saudi has large storage capacity so production and physical exports can be two very different issues. Reduced production would not necessarily mean reduced exports over the short term i.e. 6 months. My understanding is that the Saudi are want to see increases in price and to achieve that could also take rather severe steps to push other countries to remain within export quotas i.e. should Nigeria production stand above their  expected levels, look to more terrorist activity in the delta which ultimately will be financed by sa.

    XON ceo had signaled several weeks ago that he would be leaving the company. Today's talk suggests one reason for such statements.



  11. 11
    Zorgnak Says:

    Crude Futures (CL) 

    Longer term resistance at around 55. Near support at 49.37 looks good. Demand volume/Ease of Movement support higher prices.


  12. 12
    Baylor Says:

    Mulling an UGA add.

    JamesT, isn't this one you've traded?

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    WTI trading $54+


  14. 14
    Baylor Says:

    Saw that. On the backs of SA saying a bigger cut is coming. 

    RB that LUV short may work out ok after all

  15. 15
    Zorgnak Says:

    Rick Perry under consideration for Secy of Energy — ironically, same dept he forgot in that infamous 2011 debate "Oops" moment.

  16. 16
    zman Says:

    Re 15 – the hits just keep coming. 

  17. 17
    Baylor Says:

    NG down about 20 cents in overnight trading

    would this just be profit taking or does it have anything to do with SA comments on cuts or had NG run too far too fast if this pull back posts?

  18. 18
    James Anderson Says:

    This benchmark chart is amazing you do such great work, https://www.theassignmenthelp.co.nz/nursing-assignment-help/ I also create benchmark but this one is great.

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