10
Sep

Wrap – Week Ended 09/09/16

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The ZLT eased by 0.3% last week and is up 37.7% on the year. The XOP was up 1% last week and is up 24.7% on the year. 

Questions and comments under The Wrap will be addressed in the Monday post. 

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wrap 090916 

13 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 09/09/16”

  1. 1
    james T Says:

    Seems like a big Change in Shorts positions Oil contracts for one week ?

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    We've been seeing big moves there of late in both directions

    cftc 090916

     

  3. 3
    james T Says:

    Thanks,   I guess so, for some reason it caught my attention.

     

  4. 4
    RB Says:

    HK exits its pre-pack and has a new presentation.  It clearly shows the better balance sheet.  Just wonder how dedicated and focused Wilson is now.  He's older than I am etc.

    The presentation alludes to the possibility of M&A and it seems to indicate they are open to being acquired now.  Wouldn't break my heart to see my boat load of shares put out of their misery….

    here's the slides…..http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-5X1N65/2807404418x0x907682/1304EDC4-E12D-465C-89C3-A5CB581CB78C/Halcon_Company_Presentation_-_September_2016_vF.pdf

  5. 5
    Baylor Says:

    RB what would compel you to add to your position near or medium term in HK?

  6. 6
    brodway Says:

    Watching for support at 50dma in several names to add to trading positions…..this has been a level that has held among the oil names in recent trade….

  7. 7
    brodway Says:

    S&P touching 2109 in pre market trade…seems a bit overdone to the downside….should stabilize….2100 should serve as major support as this is where the markets took off after 4th of July weekend to run to almost 2200…..so it fills the gap right at that level….should it fail to stop there i see a quick break to the 200dma at 2057, with quick jump back to 2125….probably doesn't get that low as the last 2 months of trade have conveyed a more bullish stance by markets…I see this as a buying opportunity in the names one may have had their eye on.

  8. 8
    brodway Says:

    Would want to add that upon breaking the 2100 level this summer, the S&P had broken above a trading range that was in place for almost a year and a half. I see that as an extremely bullish move which should continue course after this brief pause in action. As RB pointed out in recent commentary S&P looks like it runs to 2500….i would not disagree with that sentiment

  9. 9
    RB Says:

    Baylor, I'm not sure anything could compel me to do much with HK.  I lost a lot on that stock and I didn't like the way they played their hand either.  They may be the best operator in a second tier basin, but I think it will take a transformational move to a better basin to get them attractive again.  Not sure they can pull off that financing.  i'd say the only chance would be if someone (being a PE firm) gave him a similar setup to what Papa took over at SRAQU

  10. 10
    RB Says:

    On the SPX I think the key levels are the June highs around 2,120; the 50% fib retacement from the BREXIT low to reaction high 2,093 and the 200 day sma around 2,057.

    There were some soft economic reports last week and of course some Fed sabre rattling, but the forward earnings estimates for the SPX keep rising, which gives me some confidence.  

    There is always doubt in anything you look at but the A/D line has not shown any divergence on the way up.  Yes it has weakened as the markets have weakened but most big declines I've seen are preceded by a divergence between the A/D line and the SPX index.  In fact if there is any divergence the A/D line made a new high and the index did not.  Here's the chart…note also that the A/D line didn't even break the blue horizontal trendline under the recent lows….still looks healthy to me…..https://www.stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p26441053926&a=476740661

  11. 11
    RB Says:

    I have posted three charts below.  the first is a simple bar chart of XOP which shows that it has barely budged and certainly didn't retest $35 like I thought it would.  it could still but I was expecting it to before now.  I will be buying at the pivot low of $36.23 or thereabouts, given the chance.

    The second chart is a weekly chart of the inverse head and shoulders on the XOP.  It is still very much in play, though a little lopsided on the right shoulder now.  It measures a much higher target toward $58 over time.

    Last chart is the relative strength chart of the XOP/SPX.  XOP made a new relative strength high versus the SPX last week.  That's encouraging BUT all it really says is we are a big stronger than a very narrow range/sideways type market.  Not a huge victory, but a positive.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XOP&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p41619998559&a=468242904

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XOP&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p88059240823&a=464643817

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XOP%3A%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p66081538726&a=445596785

  12. 12
    RB Says:

    I didn't see a lot of weakness in the ZLT charts and didn't really want to buy anything.  The charts I liked best were AR and CRZO.  CRZO has a great looking inverse h/s on the weekly that I've shown before and AR has a great looking bottoming pattern on the weekly.

    good luck tomorrow and have a good week!

     

  13. 13
    RB Says:

    One last chart on WTI.  I see futures indicating WTI lower than the Friday close, around 45.15.  I see strong support on WTI around $42.50/$43.00.  I made a good trade or two last time that level was tested and will looking to transact again should be get that test this week.  https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24WTIC&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=3&id=p36577612518&a=468074694

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