25
Mar
Tuesday, Wednesday, & Thursday Spring Break
Market Sentiment Watch: Spring Break
Click the link directly below this to ... 
Thanks for all the comments yesterday helping to keep me loosely in the loop.
Some thoughts:
Oil - holding near $100 after Libya saw another field shut down.
Natural gas at $4.34 Tuesday morning with another record late season withdrawal set for Thursday.
BCEI - given the age of (and location of one of the execs) leaving, career advancement comes at other firm comes to mind. Either way, there is no indication anything is wrong with the name. As far as the the RAJA downgrade goes I see that as noise brought to by the team who predicted $65 oil last year on really poor logic. Their individual company work is OK but that was a valuation downgrade which again speaks to their low oil price fore cast for later this year.
NOG - makes sense to see the buyback make a comeback. How did Reger do on Cramer last night? Cramer in text at least seemed to suggest he now thinks the name is worth a look. Never mind production is up 3x sine he was bearish on the name.
AMZG - secondary completed with over allotment taken resulting in $78mm in net proceeds.
EOX - convert deal closed raising ~ $167 mm as the over allotment was taken in full here as well.
Howard Weil conference, names of interest on Tuesday: AMZG, GST, and OEDV holding breakfasts. NOG, COG, EOG, HK, KOG, GDP, NFX, LPI, ROSE, TPLM, RRC, CPE presenting. No webcasts but most will have new presentations out. Please let me know if any our owned or names of interest names drop operations updates press releases.
Weil names of interest presenting on Wednesday : EXXI, EOX , BCEI
S&P Short Term Areas of Interest 3/25, 8:22AM ES 1856.25/ SPY Levels in ()
Notes…… Trading between the CHVN at 1864 and Major CHVN at 1829.50. Rejected the Major CHVN as too low. Demand volume weak. Ease of movement negative. Price and breadth not yet oversold. Nasdaq/High Growth relative weakness. XLU, TLT relative strength. Primary uptrend intact.
Thoughts ……. Expecting choppy range bound trading between 1829 and 1864 CHVNs. Watch how price is treated at those CHVN levels for indication of buyer’s strength. High odds bounce setup with a close below ES 1833 or 185.08 SPY. Longer time frame buyers in charge above 1829.50.
1877.75 ATH 1877.75
1868 Minor CLVN/Resistance
1864.50 CHVN/Minor Acceptance(187.74)
1825-35 Major Acceptance/CHVN(184.66)
1800 CLVN/Support
SP500 Futures
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/25/es_master_140325052134
SPY
My chart service not available at the moment
March 25th, 2014 at 7:45 amBloomerg blurb out on HK and the TMS this morning
========================================
Halcon’s Wilson Says Tuscaloosa Shale Among Last Big Shale Finds
2014-03-25 03:56:36.500 GMT
By Bradley Olson
March 25 (Bloomberg) — Floyd Wilson, the wildcatter who helped discover the fastest-growing U.S. oil field, says a prospect called the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale is among the last great fields that may emerge in the U.S. energy renaissance.
The chairman and chief executive officer of Houston-based Halcon Resources Corp. said in an interview yesterday that his company in the last six months has acquired 250,000 acres in the field that spans from Texas to Mississippi. The company expects wells there to produce between 500,000 to 1 million barrels of oil each.
Wilson’s previous company, Petrohawk Energy Corp., helped discover and develop Texas’s Eagle Ford formation, where oil output rose to 1.2 million barrels a day last year from about
50,000 in 2007, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. In 2011, BHP Billiton Ltd. bought Petrohawk for $15 billion.
The Tuscaloosa prospect is “maybe one of the last remaining large footprint oil shale plays in the U.S.,” Wilson said in an interview at the Howard Weil Energy Conference in New Orleans. “It’s an important oil resource play. The puzzle is how to get it out economically.”
Halcon shares have fallen almost 50 percent in the past year after surging to a high of $12.76 in February of 2012 just months after Wilson took over.
The company began drilling its first well less than two weeks ago in the field, where there may be as many as 2 million acres of drilling opportunities, Wilson said. The decision about whether to seek a partner in a potential joint venture will depend on how much risk the company sees in developing the field, he said.
Recent well results have made the Tuscaloosa’s prospects look better, he said. The lower the risk, the less likely Halcon will take on a partner, Wilson said.
March 25th, 2014 at 7:46 amZ – You will be happy to know that Reger's primary reason for why NOG's cheap is PV10 value. Quoted $15.50 approx. lol
March 25th, 2014 at 8:01 amEnd of an Era… Bye-bye Double Eagle… and Hello Escalera. (Isn't "escalera" some sort of lettuce? or maybe a skin disease… either way, is that really what you want to name an E&P?)
Dick Dole stepping down as CEO (but stepping into a Vice Chairman position), having successfully recruited a new CEO and rounding up $4.8mm in private placement money. New CEO (Charles Chambers) has an interesting background… no word yet on whether he can find oil in an unopened can of Valvoline (which DD never could).
March 25th, 2014 at 8:22 amThanks for the updates. No real news on any of our names today that I can see.
AR = wow
Good to see ROSE continue to wake back up
March 25th, 2014 at 8:51 amRSPP = wow too
March 25th, 2014 at 8:52 amLow volume so far in energy land…
NOG WLL COG AR with above average volume in the early going
March 25th, 2014 at 8:56 amCongress to hold hearings on the export of LNG-that should take care of the question, nothing more to be said:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/25/us-usa-lng-congress-idUSBREA2O08Z20140325
March 25th, 2014 at 8:56 ambcei- stiffle had short piece on bcei turnover- no clarity on what happened but did say that they thought their type curves might be a bit agressive. no change to ratings. Not much new though a but to think about.
March 25th, 2014 at 8:59 amNOG and NFX getting the Cramer follow through today. Cheaper, under-the-radar stories getting some public attention is helping them.
March 25th, 2014 at 9:05 amRe BCEI type curves. Bonanzas are below other area operators. All data I have seen on Nio B are in line with their curves. The C and Codell have been strong with flatter declines.
March 25th, 2014 at 9:06 amSomeone should tell Stifel to go
March 25th, 2014 at 9:08 amLook at the Wattenberg type cubes of the peers and read the last several transcripts and stop guessing. Sheesh.
March 25th, 2014 at 9:10 am11-13 thanks. Probably they had no idea what happened but felt that they had to say something. Generally easier to say something negative. As you would say just more noise.
March 25th, 2014 at 9:18 amREXX waking up. through resistance at 17.50…19 is long term acceptance
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/25/stock_master390_140325072018
March 25th, 2014 at 9:21 amOil Producer Index….Demand volume not supportive. Looking for a test of support at 44
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/25/oil_producer_index
Nat Gas Producer Index Pushing long and short term breakout level on tepid demand volume….
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/25/nat_gas_producer_index
March 25th, 2014 at 10:04 amCOG finding some volume here..2.7X avg for time of day
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/25/stock_master390_140325080725
March 25th, 2014 at 10:07 amFCG Nat Gas Producer ETF….Watching for a break of resistance on volume…
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/25/stock_master390_140325081220
March 25th, 2014 at 10:14 amMTDR-trying to buy small in here but price insists on running-not going to chase.
March 25th, 2014 at 10:15 amre: 17
COG…bouncing off the 32.11 mark…up on the day now…so far the support has held
March 25th, 2014 at 10:22 amXOP Relative strength in energy continues…Support at 69.46
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/25/stock_master390_140325083515
March 25th, 2014 at 10:37 amwas going through some funds with recent changes in holdings….John Paulson seems to be on the energy bandwagon…
http://www.insidermonkey.com/hedge-fund/paulson+%26+co/18/
WLL, OAS, KOG, HES, CIE, PXD are all represented the top 30 holdings with OAS having increased by 832% over last reporting period….they hold 7.4 million shares…
March 25th, 2014 at 10:47 amSteve Cohen owns big energy holding as well..
http://www.insidermonkey.com/hedge-fund/sac+capital+advisors/8/
WLL, HAL, EQT, EOG, COG are all in the top 30 holdings.
HAL position increased drasticallly and they added to all the others during last quarter.
Soros also seems to be big on HAL and EQT having added nice size bets on those two in last quarter.
March 25th, 2014 at 10:52 amEGY sale of North American Assets [in response to sc4 ?]
Vaalco did sell all their Montana Baaken assets, but price was apperently not mateial. this leaves them with
~small WI's in a few wells in South Texas they have owned form many years lthey just collect royalties………..no mgmt. effort required],
~the two high % WI wells in the Grantie Wash…………….which no one seems interested in buying.
March 25th, 2014 at 11:18 am24 thanks. Any sence of when there could be news on Harvest. That would be a very positive for egy.
Appreciate your inputs.
March 25th, 2014 at 11:28 amGDP…I am going to tiptoe into this one…like their presentation and 21% inside ownership
March 25th, 2014 at 1:35 pmcrysball u ever get answer from BOP re RSO? am thinking of selling
March 25th, 2014 at 1:49 pmbot my first batch of GDP at 13.68…man that is one ugly looking chart
March 25th, 2014 at 1:56 pmOT re RSO
BOPadvised she is still holding her RSP and would advise after looking at latest financials.
March 25th, 2014 at 1:59 pmOOPS…………..should read RSO
March 25th, 2014 at 2:00 pmanother 52 week high in HAL….looks like it wants to keep going higher..
March 25th, 2014 at 2:11 pmRE :EGY………….negotiations to acquire non-producing West African Assets
IMHO Vaaalco is actively looking at other properties (in addition to HNR's Dussafu wells)………………..but the Dussafu wells make the best fit from a cash flow realization standpoint………………i.e. can be tied in to the existing Vaalco FPSO……………but then HNR knows this also and may be holding out for a better price…………..in spite of their financial distress.
With that said, IMHO it would take a new prodcution platform to produce the Dussafu wells…………..don't think it can be done with a subsea tree becasue of the the distance to the FPSO………but am not a Petroleum Engineer. A production platform would be 2 years out [due to lead times to engineer & build], but would still give EGY a nice bump of they announced an agreement……………and a plan to put the discovery wells into production.
March 25th, 2014 at 2:11 pmlate buying int. in AMZG again today…last half hour good volume to the upside
March 25th, 2014 at 3:00 pmRe 33 – I wonder who the persistent seller at $7 was today?
March 25th, 2014 at 3:02 pmOT: RSO… still holding. Last quarter was a bit of a whiff compared to the targets that the company put out there for putting balance sheet cash to work during the quarter (and if cash isn't "working" or invested, then it doesn't generate any income… which is used to pay the distributions/dividends). Apparently, a large, lumpy deal did not go through as expected… and that was the investment whiff. Also, a lot of the CLO investments that the company made in 2005-2007 are being unwound and paid back. Those were at nice spreads (higher interest rates). This is all planned stuff… but the company needs to replace the cash coming home to roost with new investments also.
This is all typical "mortgage finance stuff" and comes down to management's ability to run a diversified commercial real-estate portfolio and pay out a consistant dividend. They said that they will keep the $0.80/yr quarterly-pay divided rate for this year… and grow their real estate investments… and they think they can come pretty close to "earning the dividend" (of AFFO).
I hold RSO for the dividend payout and management's portfolio skills. I will continue to hold.
Spoke to XACS about RSO also. He was going to buy some of the company's preferred shares, which were trading north of 11% yield this morning.
March 25th, 2014 at 3:20 pmPocked up some more OAS at $40.30 today
March 25th, 2014 at 3:48 pmBOP –
Maybe my list is incomplete but it looks aren't RSOA and RSOB yielding closer to 9%? I'm not pointing out and error, I'm hoping to find a good yield.
March 25th, 2014 at 4:08 pmJustin — thanks for your comment. I didn't look at the preferreds myself (as I am OK being long the stock)… just passing along XACS's levels. Maybe he was looking at a stale quote… maybe something else. I can clarify it with him tomorrow.
March 25th, 2014 at 4:47 pmSN-cuts back on capex:
http://seekingalpha.com/pr/9369243-sanchez-energy-announces-revised-2014-capital-plan-interim-operations-update-and-participation-at-the-howard-weil-42nd-annual-energy-conference
March 25th, 2014 at 6:25 pmibop if you like reits you might look at efc and nymt. Both are very well managed and had very modest nav declines in the 4q 13 in part because of their modest leverage. EFC is the more interesting of the two. Interested in your take if u like it. best sc4
March 25th, 2014 at 6:35 pmRe 39. Thanks. Impressive. Should outperform on that. Our last comments there:
http://zmansenergybrain.com/2014/03/06/thursday-morning-catalyst-list-update-and-some-other-odds-and-ends/
March 25th, 2014 at 6:35 pmRSO – looks like Uncle Leon @ Omega still held 1M shares as of 12/31.
March 25th, 2014 at 7:37 pmnot sure this was posted today…
2:08 am Samson Oil & Gas provides weekly operational advisory (SSN) : Co provides an update on on its North Stockyard Project, Williams County, North Dakota. The infill development plan for Samson's North Stockyard project is to drill 10 middle Bakken wells and 8 Three Forks wells.
COMMENTARY
The fracture stimulation of the Blackdog 3-13-14H well commenced on March 9th, and was completed March 21st. This frack was the largest undertaken in Samson's North Stockyard project to date and pumped 8.5 million pounds of proppant in 38 stages. This represents a proppant concentration of around 1,000 pounds per foot of proppant, which is in line with current industry practice of the use of larger volumes of proppant to deliver larger ultimate reserves. The well is currently shut in and will be flowed back later this week.
Sail and Anchor is shut in during the Blackdog frack and continues to await a coil tubing clean out in conjunction with Blackdog.
Frontier 24 is drilling the two Matilda Bay wells in batch mode and has set surface casing on both wells, with Matilda Bay #1 running a 7 inch casing string. Following the cement of this casing string the rig will skid to Matilda Bay #2 to drill the curve and set the 7 inch production casing.
The Rennerfelt #1 and 2 wells are ready for the frack crew, which is now expected to arrive April 27th
March 25th, 2014 at 8:01 pmBCEI now I've been out of touch on the slopes for a week, but my 1st impression of the mgt changes at BCEI are that mgt is leaving because they are not needed if someone buys the co. At NAPE the buzz was that the only shortage in E&P-land was seasoned mgt, CEOs, of upstream cos. I'll let y'all handicap the odds if this.
March 25th, 2014 at 10:00 pmRE 44: Interesting speculation about BCEI M&A. Also that it concerns Wattenberg assets, which have the highest basin wide IRRs of any domestic shale play (outside of Utica/Marcellus) according to CS–which should be attractive to an acquirer. I have no knowledge of any deals but have long held some M&A thoughts about a BCEI peer. The following is pure speculation on my part so please regard it as such and do your own DD.
PDCE is another name ripe for an M&A deal, IMO. With over 98k acres in the core Wattenberg (more than double BCEI), 48k acres in the core Utica and 120k acres in the W. VA Marcellus, PDCE is currently selling with a TEV less than PV-10 and an enormous R/P of 23.5 years. So PDCE has a huge runway of high IRR drilling ahead and is cheap on a reserves basis (but not on a current ebitda basis). This might be very attractive to a bigger player with capital to accelerate increases in production, reserves, ebitda and NPV. The main impediment might be infrastructure buildout for take-away capacity, but that is a rapidly diminishing problem. BCEI (2.34B) and PDCE (2.64B) sell at similar TEV levels. There could potentially be several different acquirers, but two names stand out in my mind. APC would be a possibility since they have plans to accelerate their core Wattenberg development, which they regard as one their best assets. They also have Utica/Marcellus operations that they may want to grow. Another name for PDCE would be AR because the Utica and Marcellus assets for each firm are close to one another and each is a core development for AR. AR's management is widely experienced and its headquarters are near the Wattenberg in Denver, which leads me to believe they know the area well. AR could acquire PDCE, capture the Utica/Marcellus assets and later spin off or sell the Wattenberg assets for as much or more than they paid for all of PDCE if they don't want to operate in a new core area. AR's stock is a bit rich, so they could use it along with cheap debt to make the deal immediately accretive. //End fantasy matchmaker game//
March 26th, 2014 at 12:45 amRe 43 – 45. Thanks
March 26th, 2014 at 3:44 amAPI
oil up 6.3 mm barrels
gasoline down 2.8 mm barrels
distillates up 0.3 mm barrels
March 26th, 2014 at 3:45 amPlatts expectations for Wednesday inventories:
oil up 2.8 mm bbs
gasoline down 1.6 mm bbs
distillates down 1.0 mm bbs.
March 26th, 2014 at 3:47 amFed's Bullard sees unemployment rate falling below 6% by year end 2014. Calls outlook for U.S. Economy "quite good". He's recently backed off inking that Fed would raise rates this year and said today he his not changing his view now.
March 26th, 2014 at 5:34 amWe get Durable Goods at 8:30 am EST, f = 0.0%
March 26th, 2014 at 5:59 amTidbit from HK yesterday, nice rate on their first Burleson County well announced yesterday at Weil
http://www.otcmarkets.com/otciq/ajax/showNewsReleaseDocumentById.pdf?id=498794281
March 26th, 2014 at 6:13 amMore HK, slide 19 here:
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-5X1N65/3045849822x0x736386/59d3fabc-b874-4ce7-8edd-d52461b73af3/Halcon_IR%20Presentation_Howard%20Weil_vFINAL%20web%20version.pdf
Shorts think story is debt and TMS. Story is Bakken and Eagle Ford and Eagle Ford delineation to the south is not a small deal.
March 26th, 2014 at 6:17 amthx for that info. on HK…most encouraging. glad to have the shorts borrowing my shares at 9-10%…
March 26th, 2014 at 6:53 amGGS — the reason why I don't invest in seismic data companies… they go BK.
March 26th, 2014 at 7:46 am#51 — thanks for pointing that out. Nice IP. Wells cost about $10mm each, however, so need that kind of production to work. Do you know what the type curve EUR is around there?
March 26th, 2014 at 7:49 am#55 add-on: I own HK shares… so happy to have them post those results!
March 26th, 2014 at 7:51 amS&P Short Term Areas of Interest 3/26, 8:22AM ES 1866.75. SPY Levels in ()
Notes……Tested 1864.50 CHVN, VPOC at 1858.75. Demand volume weak. Nasdaq relative weakness. Primary uptrend intact. Market set to open with a gap up to the 1864.50 CHVN.
Thoughts …….Doing less. Little edge here for me. 1864.50 is the short term volume pivot. Bulls in control above that level with 1868 CLVN as near resistance to watch for follow through strength.
1877.75 ATH 1877.75
1868 Minor CLVN/Resistance
1864.50 CHVN/Minor Acceptance(187.74)
1825-35 Major Acceptance/CHVN(184.66)
1800 CLVN/Support
SP500 Futures
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/26/es_master_140326052104
March 26th, 2014 at 7:53 amRe 55. Not for that county. El Halcon in General is 452 Mboe as per HK which is pretty typical for net EUR in east EFS. I'd guess the bigger wells will be Brazos with Burleson where this well is a little less. They have been outperforming
March 26th, 2014 at 8:11 amBrent/WTI at 7.3
TNX at 2.744
Robry at -56
March 26th, 2014 at 8:12 amBDI down 82 to 1496
March 26th, 2014 at 8:20 amCowen downgraded WPX Energy (NYSE: WPX) from Outperform to Market Perform with a price target of $20.00 (unchanged).
March 26th, 2014 at 8:38 amEOG new high.Wish I had not been so nervous during their "lumpy" period a few years ago.
March 26th, 2014 at 8:39 amCOG retesting that low 32 range again….this has been an area of support on other instances over last year
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
March 26th, 2014 at 8:47 amEOG — yes… when my Barrel of Monkeys or Cats and Dogs portfolios get too unruly, I step out of the room to meditate with my EOG holdings. It's the antidote to the headache of trying to manage the unruly simians.
March 26th, 2014 at 8:48 amXACS still bullish…
========================
Credit is tighter across the globe this morning. The credit markets are once again focused on the ECB and the steps it might take to speed Europe's economic recovery and fight potential deflation. The European Financial Subordinate iTraxx Index is 4.5bps tighter this morning…led tighter by its higher beta European Money Center Bank members. Russian corporate credit performance remains bifurcated. Russian bank CDS remains slightly weaker and volatile while Russian energy company spreads are stable to slightly better. Regardless of today's market sentiment, the Crimea incident is going to deepen this year's Russian recession. We doubt that the MICEX has yet to hit its 2014 low. US Credit markets are tighter today. The US CDX IG22 Index is 3/4bps tighter and trading just north of 70.5bps. We expect the index to trade through 70bps by the end of the week and through 65bps by the end of April. One reason for our confidence is the strength of US Money Center Bank CDS Spreads. BAC seems to be trading at another new post crisis tight this morning…and the rest of the sector also seems to be attracting bullish interest. Citigroup, even with it global footprint, is quickly retracing its recent weakness and could be trading near its post crisis tights within a week. Conclusion: Crimea will cause Russian economy heartache. USA and European economic growth unlikely to be affected. Increases in credit spread volatility indicates that US equity and credit market spreads are still susceptible to a 5% pull back – HOWEVER – we expect any pull-back is going to generate a great buy-on-the-dip opportunity.
March 26th, 2014 at 8:50 amre: 63
sorry for the bad COG chart…can't seem to copy it over from stockcharts…..there's also another scenario that stock retests the area where it gapped in February of 2013 (28 area), which coincides with Zorg's next area of support…
March 26th, 2014 at 8:52 amBOP Thanks for taking the time to cover for Z. I suspect you have been busy. Always great to have your barrel of monkeys around.
March 26th, 2014 at 8:53 amOT: KING (just went KONG) — IPO priced at $22.50… opens at $20.50… trading with a $19 handle.
March 26th, 2014 at 8:56 amhey TD! Thanks… nice to hang out with smart people and talk energy!
March 26th, 2014 at 8:56 amre: 65
BOP…banks really seem to have come into their own post the rather positive results from the stress test posted just recently.
A 5% correction is always a possibility, but what i'm seeing more and more is sector rotation within the markets….wiith biotechs being sold off recenlty. I'm thinking banks will do well over next 6-12 months, as will energy and technology. seeing stocks such as ORCL, CSCO, JNPR stating to see life again…..
March 26th, 2014 at 9:00 amRICE recommended @ accumulate Tudor Pick
March 26th, 2014 at 9:01 amKING is no RICE…another high today
March 26th, 2014 at 9:02 ambrodway — XACS agrees with your bank statement… and I agree with your entire statement. Thanks for sharing.
SN — wow. Who lowers their capex and keep drilling/production the same. Way to go, guys! In return, GHS ups their PT for SN to $36.
March 26th, 2014 at 9:04 amanother 52 week high for HAL and new high for AR…the strong keep getting stronger….
March 26th, 2014 at 9:05 amInventories
crude up 6.6 mm bs
gasoline down 5.1 mm bbs
distillates up 1.6 mm bbs
March 26th, 2014 at 9:33 amMore EIA
imports up slightly
throughput up slightly with util at 86%
nice renounce in gasoline demand, at 9 mmbpd
which is above normal for time of year
dist demand dropped back to low end of ramge
March 26th, 2014 at 9:35 amMore EIA
production just off recent highs
no update to exports this week
March 26th, 2014 at 9:36 amAlso another decent decline at Cushing and another much bigger increase in crude stocks on the Gulf Coast.
March 26th, 2014 at 9:38 amStreet at -52 BCF for tomorrow's report
March 26th, 2014 at 9:46 amAMZG with another pop and fade at the open – Smells like someone out there is getting short. Judging by the 3 min chart, this short is happy selling you shares at the $7 level ($1.75 pre split)
March 26th, 2014 at 9:50 amECA Broke above long term volume base
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/26/stock_master390_140326075419
March 26th, 2014 at 9:54 amGST Testing near support at 5.12. Far support at 4.68
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/26/stock_master390_140326075717
March 26th, 2014 at 9:58 amSYRG: Mizuho dissing their update
Synergy Resources: Delays in the Wattenberg could mean lower guidance —
Mizuho (10.66 +0.16)
"Mizuho notes, SYRG's recent operations update highlighted a new contract for a second Ensign automatic drilling rig, as expected; delays at both the Phelps and Leffler pads; lower than anticipated production to date from the six Leffler wells; and a noncommercial D-sand vertical test in the Northeast extension. Net/net firm sees this release as a negative, and expect SYRG will lower its 5,100-5,500 boe/d guidance for FY14."
March 26th, 2014 at 10:06 amre: 81
i can't remember the last time i saw ECA sporting a 52 week high figure…a far cry from its all time high, but i agree the trend has turned
March 26th, 2014 at 10:11 amHK and the TMS (aka: Floyd Wilson to the Rescue!) — HK has a plan for drilling/stimulating/producing the TMS… and everyone in the play will benefit.
There have been enough wells drilled and data collected to refine the Plan of Attack on the TMS. HK's blueprint may not be perfect, but what it does is give us the sense of how complicated drilling/producting a new formation can be. Too many people think you just "sink a straw" into the target and then turn on the spigot. Maybe for Spindletop… but not for the new shale plays. What is encouraging is that we are making our way up the Learning Curve in the TMS… and with every step, it appears to get better.
Worth reading:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2110273-halcon-resources-reveals-its-recipe-for-success-in-the-tms?source=yahoo
March 26th, 2014 at 10:40 amhttp://www.dallasnews.com/business/energy/20140318-in-gulf-of-mexico-oil-industry-regains-footing.ece
Offshore GOM starting to finally come around. Info services firm – IHS predicting production will bypass the peak rate of 1.2mm/bl/day. Part of the reason for the future strip to be $80/bl.
March 26th, 2014 at 10:47 amre: 85…brings up visions of The Lone Ranger and Tonto…I'm neck deep in HK stock. Z always hates that I do that, because sometimes when he's really up I'm underwater or no better than about even…but I do what my makeup dictates and I like to own a few of 'em and not a lot of 'em. sure miss my share that way, but I've hit a few too
March 26th, 2014 at 10:59 amCS – Put out a piece today that if you like the shale plays, you gotta love the railroads. They also were in Denver last week and had some comments re NBL, APC, PDCE, BCEI, SYRG & DCP.
March 26th, 2014 at 11:01 amRB- I am with you on that. Own NFX, COG, EOX, GDP, HK, FCX and AEM. All stuff stocks. Heaviest positions: NFX, FCX and AEM.
March 26th, 2014 at 11:03 amCramer has sure bashed HK from what I can tell. (I don't watch his program)….I know he has been a big supporter of Floyd Wilson before, so it will be funny to see it when he finally gets on the HK/TMS bandwagon…even if at the time other plays are more important to the HK story.
Gotta hand it to Cramer, he left the hedge fund biz to become a TV motor mouth just as a multi-year bear started…on that he was right!
March 26th, 2014 at 11:18 amPCAR-not one of our names but this is a big step in powering long distance Kenilworth trucks with either CNG or LNG: Cummins/Westport produces the engine;
http://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item.aspx?bid=U-b005282-U:PCAR-20140326&symbol=PCAR®ion=U
March 26th, 2014 at 11:30 amBOP-#65-do you or XACS have any concerns pertaining to the yield curve? One of the chattering class posted this article:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-should-care-about-the-yield-curve-2014-03-26?link=MW_story_popular
Thanks for any cmts you might have.
March 26th, 2014 at 11:51 amJONE option activity. Someone sold 1,000 October 12.5s for $1 and bought 1,000 October $15s for $1.45…. Total cash outlay: $45k. Total potential loss: $1.25M + $45k = $1.7M. Potential gains unlimited.
March 26th, 2014 at 11:53 amRe 93: my math was horrible there… $1.295M total loss.
March 26th, 2014 at 11:54 amOT on a slow day:
RB, are you a Rangers fan:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-26-ballpark-hot-dog-2014-03-26
March 26th, 2014 at 11:55 am#92 — "flattening yield curve"?? Against what time period? Last week? The yield curve is a lot steeper YoY. Last year, the 10 yr was 1.88%. Today it's 2.71%.
Last year 1M t-bills were 0.08%. This year, 0.04% (so lower by 4 bps). That looks like a steepening of the yield curve to me, not a flattening. And a steep yield curve benefits banks (and anyone who thrives on borrowing overnight and lending farther out).more than anyone else.
March 26th, 2014 at 12:25 pmIn my experience, the kind of inverted yield curve that scares me is when the 1, 2, 3, 5, or 10 yield yields are below the Fed Funds rate. A steep yield curve is pricing in 1) future inflation, and/or 2) a better economy (where govt borrowing has to compete with corporate demand). But that's just me.
Yield curve looks pretty healthy to me right now. Saying it anticipate higher short-term rates some time next year.
March 26th, 2014 at 12:28 pmTo see a real "inverted yield curve," pull up the grapny from Jan. 2, 2007. THAT graph scared the Dickens outta me. But by the time the Recession really hit, the yield curve was very steep (because everyone was "hiding out" in the short maturities, scared to invest out any longer… which is too bad, as the longer maturities were the ones that rallied the most over the next year).
Just some more thoughts.
March 26th, 2014 at 12:37 pmre: 95…Choices, yes we are Ranger fans…go to about half the games…my wife is much bigger fan than me….AND I am about as wide as I am tall but even I can't eat some of the stuff they sell out there
March 26th, 2014 at 12:38 pmOT Long bond testing breakout level..
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/26/stock_master390_140326104605
March 26th, 2014 at 12:46 pmSmall cap key support at 1160 (Russell 2000 Futs)
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/26/tf_master_140326104851
March 26th, 2014 at 12:49 pmHeard through the grapevine that MHR's stalder Utica well is currently producing at 18 mcfed with 6,000 wellhead psi… Also the Marcellus well got tied in this week and is supposedly outperforming their expected IP
March 26th, 2014 at 1:03 pm18 MMcfed*
March 26th, 2014 at 1:03 pm#104 RE MHR I was wondering earlier why this one was so perky… running 50% above average volume for time of day..
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/26/stock_master390_140326111225
March 26th, 2014 at 1:13 pm3rd party research – we are not a conduit for swapping it.
Emails should not be posted in the comments section
thanks for understanding,
z
March 26th, 2014 at 1:40 pm#106 – apologies – wasn't trying to cause trouble.
March 26th, 2014 at 1:43 pmDon't apologize.
March 26th, 2014 at 1:56 pmFANG Impresseive strength. Setup for another breakout.
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/26/stock_master_65_140326120309
March 26th, 2014 at 2:04 pmSWN Trading in new range from 44 support/top of volume base to 47 CLVN resistance.
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/26/stock_master390_140326121254
March 26th, 2014 at 2:15 pmRRC Range 83-89
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/26/stock_master390_140326121546
March 26th, 2014 at 2:16 pmREXX out with an operations update: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1397516/000119312514116560/d701013dex991.htm
Highlights: 2nd rig added to Butler operating area. Plans to drill 4 pads in 2014 with at least 5 wells per pad. Look for results from the Ferree Pad (Upper dev/Marcellus stacked situation there) in 2014, 2 test wells on Shipley pad, and some results on the Ballie Trust Pad. 40-45 wells with 2 rigs in Butler area through 2014.
Butler Midstream – 120Mcfed of capacity coming on in 2nd quarter. Rexx will put 10-15 wells representing 100 Mcfed into this new capacity.
Warrior North (northern Utica): Company has finished the 6 well Grunder Pad, these will all come into sales in Q2 or early Q3. No flow data.
Production guidance reaffirmed for the first quarter. Expecting to come in near the high end.
March 26th, 2014 at 3:47 pmRe 111 – REXX playing around with completion techniques and spacing in both Warrior North and Butler… only a couple of test wells here and there. They could surprise with some of their results.
March 26th, 2014 at 3:49 pmThanks Dedwards
March 26th, 2014 at 5:09 pmLNG exports from Canada-Canada approves export licenses but terminals have not yet been constructed-appears to be down the line in time:
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/canada-approves-4-lng-export-licenses-on-pacific-coast-20140326-00889
March 26th, 2014 at 5:53 pmre: 45
Nrgyman…..very nice M&A info….another perspective on things doesn't hurt and makes us think outside the box…
March 26th, 2014 at 6:33 pmThursday
Street at 52 Bcf for today's report
March 26th, 2014 at 8:00 pmREXX – in a nutshell, a good operations update, again. The last three positive to in line reports have been ignored by the Street.
March 26th, 2014 at 8:07 pmS&P Short Term Areas of Interest 3/27, 8:16AM ES 1844.75. SPY Levels in ()
Notes……Rejected 1864.50 CHVN as too high, retesting back towards Major CHVN at 1829.50. Minor CLVN resistance at 1855.50. Demand volume negative. Market short term oversold. High odds bounce setup on close. Nasdaq/High Growth relative weakness. Large cap value relative strength. Primary uptrend intact.
Thoughts …… Market setup for a high odds bounce on yesterday's close. Expecting bulls to step in at or above the major acceptance levels above 1825.25.
1877.75 ATH 1877.75
1868 Minor CLVN/Resistance
1864.50 CHVN/Minor Acceptance(187.74)
1825-35 Major Acceptance/CHVN(184.66)
1800 CLVN/Support
SP500 Futures
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/27/es_master_140327054037
SPY High odds bounce setup anywhere from last nights close to 183.52. Far support at 182.12
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/27/stock_master390_140327054506
March 27th, 2014 at 7:49 amgood morning Zorg…oil prices seem elevated….thinking due to Russian aggresion
March 27th, 2014 at 8:21 amBDI for some reason is coming a little later
Brent/WTI narrower at 6.4
TNX lower yields 2.701
March 27th, 2014 at 8:22 am#119 Good morning…Yes and energy companies have shown relative strength up to this point but they are testing support now..Looking at the Oil Producer index and the Bakken and Permian indexes shows demand volume rolling over…so far price has held.
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/27/stock_master390_140327062650
March 27th, 2014 at 8:28 am#119 Good morning…Yes and energy companies have shown relative strength up to this point but they are testing support now..Looking at the Oil Producer index and the Bakken and Permian indexes shows demand volume rolling over…so far price has held.
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/27/stock_master390_140327062650
March 27th, 2014 at 8:29 amNasdaq continues to get sold off…energy holding up well…
RBC Capital Mkts reiterated Halliburton (HAL) coverage with Outperform rating and price target $70
March 27th, 2014 at 8:41 amPrevious price target: $62
AR moves 3 points on 90k shares….talk about think trading volatility
March 27th, 2014 at 8:42 amZorg, On your ES composite chart, I see you have color coded the distributions on the left edge of the chart. May I ask how you've defined the color code?
March 27th, 2014 at 8:43 amAR…most of the IBD go/go names are rolling over…this one will likely get the boot from their leaders list too pulling back like it is…hate when they get involved with our names
March 27th, 2014 at 8:45 amFANG breakout 2X avg volume for time of day…RSPP following
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/27/stock_master390_140327065313
March 27th, 2014 at 8:53 am#125 Mark It's a monthly volume profile broken down into a weekly time frames and then overlaid…gives me a picture of when multiple time frames overlap…just trying it out. I can do the same thing in any time frame. Quarterly ect
March 27th, 2014 at 8:57 amAnyone have any thoughts on AMZG earnings report?
March 27th, 2014 at 8:57 amS&P Futs….rejecting CHVN at1835 as too low..
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/27/es_master_140327065831
March 27th, 2014 at 8:59 am#130 note the overnight high at 1842 next upside test
March 27th, 2014 at 9:00 amRelative strength in energy on the bounce…FCG Nat Gas ETF..20.45 important resistance. XOP held the 69.45 CLVN support level..so far
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/27/stock_master390_140327070203
March 27th, 2014 at 9:03 amComments from HWeil attendee: Everyone wanted a new theme. Got more of the same. Most loved are land service. Expecting PP prices to start going higher for first time in a long time. Offshore still expected to be weak. Looking for more cold stacking and seeing sublet market dry up. Everyone still loves Permian and thinks Bakken not til next quarter. MTDR looks good. COG still experiencing higher differentials than others due to their locations. They did indicate they would be more aggressive with their buybacks. EOX -everything is about timing. They saw a window on the convert raise and took it. Shareholders were surprised for the most part. Thought another deal likely. Not likely. More like for the accelerating of the 4th rig. Ist Q CC likely to lay out their plan. Production s/b higher with LOE costs lower. Wells s/b drilled quicker. Until update they like other Bakkens may not get much love until much closer to the fireworks. Street perception is end of 2nd Q. I expect that will be a little late.
March 27th, 2014 at 9:04 amS&P futs..Minor CLVN resistance at 1846
March 27th, 2014 at 9:09 amGDP — Iberia out with some (great) operational comments about GDP and the other TMS players… I am eagerly anticipating the results of the CH Lewis well. It's an offset to the Smith well which IP'd at 1,045 on a shorter lateral. If this well comes in strong, i think we see GDP off and running (up) again.
============================================
GDP; Execs Rob Turnham and Jan Schott presented at our offices. Be aware they are no longer alone in the TMS with HK well spud and nearing td. SN and CRK not far behind (CRK will spud a well directly north of Crosby about 4 miles away). Some new info;
Blades Well; lateral complete at 5100 ft. short of goal but mud motor gave out and would have taken 2-3 days to get it out, fix it and put it back in so decided to go with 5100 ft. Composite frac plugs and snubbing unit to drill out. Have shortened up distance between frac stages to 250 ft form 270 ft. Using same amount of proppant as HK said they would use, 1680/lbs/ft. Using choline chloride as a stabilizer to counter effects of clay. Choline Chloride is supplied by public Balchem symbol BCPC. Using a new NBR rig. Drill time has been reduced and think they can average between 7 and 12 days shorter afe.
C.H. Lewis Well; drilling lateral now at 4000 ft, have more confidence in well design and will try to get out to 6500-7000 feet. They are averaging 1000 feet a day. This well is spacing unit west of the Smith well which ip’d at 1045 with 5400 ft 20 stage lateral.
Beech Grove Well; In Louisiana in E Feliciana a bit south of ECA Ash well ip’d 703boepd 30 stages w 5300 ft lateral.
5th Rig; Possible in 2h14. NBR rig has cut drill time dramatically and trying to get another in lieu of older Ensign rigs.
Lawson Well – SN/ECA well is stuck in rubble zone 4000 ft into lateral. Apparently ECA has reversed course and is back trying to work above the rubble zone on this well.
Horseshoe Hill Well – HK well is at 11k foot depth 11 days since they started drilling.
SLC 81h Well – Next to begin drilling for GDP after the Beech Grove well.
Redetermination – Will meet with bankers Friday for March scheduled redetermination, will announce outcome with quarter. Current line undrawn as of today.
March 27th, 2014 at 9:09 amREXX working at important resistance again at 17.50
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/27/stock_master390_140327070943
March 27th, 2014 at 9:10 amThumper re AMZG. Pre announced volumes, will be able to read it in a bit.
March 27th, 2014 at 9:12 amPVA continues its impressive ways…now over $17 again….both PDCE and GPOR are springy, meaning they rise quickly on any strength but find support quicker than most…looks like buying interest in both
March 27th, 2014 at 9:15 amThanks Tom. But who are these people who always need a new theme? Guessing same short term mentality types that are often disappointed when commodity prices don't rise consistently.
March 27th, 2014 at 9:16 amRe 129: I don't follow AMZG too closely, but it looks like they pre-announced production, which was a little ahead of their previous guidance of 1800 boepd. They were a little light on street revs and EBITDA, but has 3 more good well results with 8 more wells coming on imminently.
Most importantly, the PR had the following language: "American Eagle believes that its cash on hand, cash flow from operations, proceeds from its recently completed share issuance, and anticipated additional availability under the credit facility driven by increased proved producing reserves should adequately fund its two-rig drilling program to drill 24 gross (13.8 net) operated wells per year in 2014 and beyond."
It looks like the dilution is over for now, stock has room to move higher.
I don't know what the numbers (production, rev, ebitda) will look like post-deal and I have a feeling the street doesn't know either. It is likely Q1 results will open some eyes.
March 27th, 2014 at 9:18 amTom re "a little late" yeah me too It will be easily in sight by time of 1 q14 calls
March 27th, 2014 at 9:19 am138 Z I have come across MANY more short term thinkers on the street than people like you with your patience.
March 27th, 2014 at 9:20 amAMZG – some of these bakken wells have puny IPs, but just don't really decline. They'll do 180 boepd for like 18 months straight lol
March 27th, 2014 at 9:23 amThanks Z and DEd.
March 27th, 2014 at 9:24 amAMZG – they pre announced awhile back. Ebitda was light by a mil, a bit to revenue, a bit to costs. Not hard to model, just not in front of mine at the moment and typing with thumbs now.
March 27th, 2014 at 9:26 amXOP up on 2.3 X avg volume for time of day FCG 1.32X
March 27th, 2014 at 9:29 amYeah, not puny for the area. Are they having a call?
March 27th, 2014 at 9:29 amOther HWeil thoughts: RRC continues to trade a higher multiple than peers. Massive amounts of locations, great logistical team. Good track record of performing to their guidance. Keep an eye on Marcus Hook by Phila. When full export capacity begins, should help liquids producers as well as our exports of ethane. propane & butane. Positive presentations from GPOR, MHR, SGY, RICE, & PDCE.
March 27th, 2014 at 9:29 amRe 141. Hear ya on that. Thnks for the notes. Those guys come and go.
March 27th, 2014 at 9:30 amGDP getting some love
March 27th, 2014 at 9:43 amGDP with 38% short interest could get even more interesting eh?
March 27th, 2014 at 9:45 amGDP short interest has been there forever.
March 27th, 2014 at 9:49 amre: 152…that may be true, but my relative strength chart on XOP is about to break into new highs and maybe, just maybe people are beginning to think the TMS is viable
March 27th, 2014 at 9:51 amHK needs to bust thru 3.90 and take all that seller wants to offer…
March 27th, 2014 at 9:56 amGDP at defined resistance 15.12
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/27/stock_master390_140327075915
March 27th, 2014 at 9:59 am57 bcf draw for nat gas. a mere 896 bcf in storage…
March 27th, 2014 at 10:00 am57 Bcf, 896 Bcf left in the tanks, probably at least two more pulls left in the season.
March 27th, 2014 at 10:01 amHa, beat me to it, on a bit of a delayed schedule here, lol.
March 27th, 2014 at 10:02 am52 week highs with high short interest
UPL
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/27/stock_master390_140327080131
PVA
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/27/stock_master390_140327080209
March 27th, 2014 at 10:03 amhttp://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/gdp/short-interest
GDP short position over time.
March 27th, 2014 at 10:12 amBOP, re #136 "Choline Chloride". Had never heard of it. Looked it up:
"….Choline Chloride is an excellent component for fluids using in oil and gas drilling, as a monovalent cation amines and as quaternary ammonium salt.Choline Chloride is used as shale inhibitors in drilling fluid, completion fluid and workover fluid, to prevent shale from expansion and hydration to avoid wellbore instability. The Choline Chloride shows remarkable advantages in filtration control, Wellbore stabilization, lubrication, anti-stuck, tolerance to salt and temperature, compatibility and reasonable cost….."
http://www.be-longnorth.com/choline-chloride-in-the-oil-field.html
Thanks for the notes on GDP!
March 27th, 2014 at 10:18 amCAM announced this morning that they received another order from FCX to supply a 25k psi BOP stack. FCX plans to put this BOP in use for its "high pressure activity planned to begin in 2015."
Ultra-deep gas production….
March 27th, 2014 at 10:28 am135 BOP met Jan at meeting recently and was impressed by her organization and ability to respond.If she is indicative of the quality of their staff then they should be in good shape longer term.
March 27th, 2014 at 10:29 amjy — first I've heard of it also… but i'm not a production engineer. Apparently, you use it where you have the presence of (water-sucking) smectite.
This was on SA yesterday… you'll love it:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2110273-halcon-resources-reveals-its-recipe-for-success-in-the-tms
March 27th, 2014 at 10:31 amsc4 — #163 thank you for the color. Good to know! "Management counts." Especially in small(er) e&ps.
March 27th, 2014 at 10:34 ambop 165 to hear Jan speak, the TSM people share most of their data.It sounded like quite a cooperative venture and this included HK. So the TSM appears to be a bit different than some of the other basins or it is at a very early stage and all the players are having problems of one type or another. But Jan is a credit to her firm. She seems to attend a lot of conferences and if you get a chance, worth speaking with her as I said.I was expecting more basic folk. She is quite thoughtfull about her work ex appache.
March 27th, 2014 at 10:48 am#128 Zorg thanks.
March 27th, 2014 at 10:50 amsc4 — that is true. Everyone in the TMS is sharing… that is why i think it will work. Smart Heads, working together.
I think I met Jan in 2001 at Ray Plank (senior)'s ranch in central TX. Odd coincidence, eh?
March 27th, 2014 at 11:06 amFCX- room to run to the upside. appears a major obstacle out of the way.
http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/03/27/us-asean-summit-freeport-mc-update-1-reu-idINBREA2Q12T20140327?type=companyNews
March 27th, 2014 at 11:28 amCOG – outperforming its peer group for a change.
March 27th, 2014 at 12:02 pmNat Gas Index The missing ingredient has been demand volume..Nat Gas stocks getting some today. FCG 1.28X relative volume…Relative volume today so far SWN 1.27 X RRC 1.38X REXX 1.43 X …COG getting a bid off support. One can hope…
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/27/nat_gas_producer_index
March 27th, 2014 at 12:07 pmFCG
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/27/stock_master390_140327100838
March 27th, 2014 at 12:08 pmCOG
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/27/stock_master390_140327101145
March 27th, 2014 at 12:11 pmSmall cap breadth…nearing the level where durable swing lows often occur
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/27/breadth
March 27th, 2014 at 12:16 pmVaalco Energy presenting @ Howard Weil Today [2:30 Tom if you have time to catch the new Prez……..Steve Gudiry].
The presentatation for today is enclosed.
http://vaalco.investorroom.com/index.php?s=19&item=17
Vaalco also PR'd today they have successfully completed a maintenance turnaround on the FPSO, and installed new ESP's on an Avouma Well, and are in the process of bringing all 4 fields in the Etame concession back on line [wells were shut-in for the FPSO turn]
The new thing in the slide presentation appears to be the back -to-back plann to drill 1 well in offshore Angola Blocl 5……followed by 2 offshore inwells Eq. Guinea Block P, followed by a second offshore well in Anola Block 5….[a semisub is required for all] The time line has no dates on the bottom scale, but it appears most would occur in 2014.
Vaalco will also be presenting @ IPAA.
March 27th, 2014 at 1:10 pmHK has been trading in a range of 3.88-3.90 for almost 4 hours….stubborn sellers at 3.90 and waiting buyers no lower than 3.88….
March 27th, 2014 at 1:18 pmbop trying to sell my PVA bonds today at 111.3 will need a replacement in a couple of weeks. any ideas?
March 27th, 2014 at 1:28 pmcrysball Vaalco – Just checked the schedule @ IPAA and they speak last day. I may be able to get to their breakout session. I will let you know if I do. Love the work you put into Vaalco. Keep up the great job.
March 27th, 2014 at 1:30 pmZorg – thanks for the all the levels.
March 27th, 2014 at 1:30 pmCrude holding > $101:
http://www.cx-portal.com/wti/oil_en.html
Natural gas holding up nearly 3% at $4.52:
http://www.investing.com/commodities/natural-gas
March 27th, 2014 at 1:36 pm177 AM Since BOP is a fan of GDP, you may want to look at GDPAN a conv pfrd. A name I think Eli was the first to mention. Yield 6.5% today if you get the PVA bonds sold.
March 27th, 2014 at 1:38 pmAnalyst Watch
FANG – Brean ups target by $7 to $66, stays Buy (with the price currnetly at $68 hmmm)
March 27th, 2014 at 1:40 pm#179 you're welcome
March 27th, 2014 at 1:40 pmATHL acting well just above support
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/27/stock_master390_140327114117
March 27th, 2014 at 1:41 pmAndy — no good bond ideas… "high yield" is yielding around 7%… maybe take a look at some preferred stock?
eli — you have any ideas?
March 27th, 2014 at 1:44 pmadding to #185 — and that is low-rated "high yield" bonds… like, the triple-Cs…
March 27th, 2014 at 1:45 pmS&P futs…Hitting all the right numbers today. Stopped at the Major CHVN. Longer time frame buyers in control above this level. Expecting a bounce to retest the 1851 level, minimum. If not, between 1835 and 1825 is dense congestion with little edge either way. Below 1825 no defined support until just above 1800.
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/27/es_master_140327114245
March 27th, 2014 at 1:46 pmre 181 – last I spoke with Eli was after the lack of well results with the 4Q13 call at which time he said something like, yeah, way busted, probably a buy here. I thought the well news out of them this week was fine. I care a lot more about the geological success at this point than the mechanical. HK had much of the recipe thoughts out with their 4Q13 call presentation at that time, modestly tweaked since. The play definitely will work in at least a few sweet spots, need delineation over more area and that comes this year. My guys with exposure now (that I know of) are HK and MCF. SN is there. GDP is obviously there. I think there is little in the way of reliability to rumors ECA is pulling out soon. Mid year is not very far off and there will be several more down by then. Chatted with Wyo about the well issues at time of GDP 4Q call and his thought was that it was more of a people issue than some insurmountable task. Said that a couple of wells in they should solve it and this many wells in maybe they should have fired someone. HK brings a lot more technical talent to the table and with all the data sharing they should be able to do better more quickly, assuming their read of porosity and TOC are correct.
March 27th, 2014 at 1:48 pmRe ATHL – yeah, had feelers out as to why they pulled out of Weil but so far have not heard back. Would guess an offering is pretty possible there or they are buying something.
March 27th, 2014 at 1:49 pmHK Looks ready to test 4.16 again
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/27/stock_master390_140327115404
March 27th, 2014 at 1:54 pmRSPP – still no 4Q13 release date. Should have one any day now.
March 27th, 2014 at 1:56 pmwhen I quit watching HK…it busted through 3.90 and is taking good volume now….
March 27th, 2014 at 1:59 pm188 If GDP and others get TMS to work the GDPAN should work well. It was up to $51 when the group topped out in Oct. Only significant drawback is VERY illiquid. Today $41.67 up $1.52/sh.
March 27th, 2014 at 2:00 pmCRZO new cycle high today.
March 27th, 2014 at 2:01 pmWe will be doing some rebalancing trades next week.
March 27th, 2014 at 2:02 pmStubborn HK seller back sitting on 3.93 now
March 27th, 2014 at 2:13 pmNFX threatening highs from last October, will be doing an update there again soon. The standalone story should get a lot more respect later this year and into 2015.
March 27th, 2014 at 2:30 pmzorg, I've prob asked this of you a couple of times but do you pay any attention to VIX when looking at levels on SPX, ie as SPX is moving down to support, VIX heaing up, does that influence your thinking as likelihood of support holding?, and of course, vice versa on resistance levels.
Thanks.
March 27th, 2014 at 2:48 pmBeerthirty
March 27th, 2014 at 2:59 pmGST sees borrowing based upped $20 mm to $120 mm. Should still be undrawn at this time.
March 27th, 2014 at 3:24 pmRe: EGY……..from SA:
~Vaalco +5.5% after completing floating rig repairs • 3:53 PM
• Vaalco Energy (EGY +5.5%) surges to 52-week highs after saying scheduled maintenance on its FPSO vessel was completed ahead of schedule, allowing work to resume at the Etame Marin block off the coast of Gabon in west Africa.
• EGY also says it took advantage of the down time for the floating vessel to repair other infrastructure in the same region, including replacing two electric submersible pumps on the Avouma 2-H well.
• Shares are ahead nearly 6% in late trading after matching their best levels since June 2006
March 27th, 2014 at 3:27 pm#198 Re VIX and S&P support and resistance. I do use it occasionally when it reaches high and low extremes and coincides with the volume profile and a couple things I watch. I don't use it in isolation.
Here is a short description a couple of techinques that have been tested and offer some edge..
https://www.tradestation.com/en/education/labs/analysis-concepts/cboe-volatility-index
You can set these ideas up using most any chart package.
March 27th, 2014 at 3:30 pmNat Gas Producers Best volume day this month…
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/27/nat_gas_producer_index_0
March 27th, 2014 at 3:51 pmThanks zorg-will take a look.
VIX as you indicate "seems" to be of use when at extreme levels as opposed to meandering as it appears to be doing now.
March 27th, 2014 at 4:21 pm#204 Re VIX..Right.
Depends on your time frame though.. For a very short term trader there have been four low "extremes" since 3/13 ,on a 30 minute time frame, that would have actionable. Right now traders aren't showing fear in the face of this decline on a daily time frame. Does it mean there's more to come? Dunno…
March 27th, 2014 at 6:50 pmLPI Strong volume day. Starting to move more easily. Resistance at 28
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/03/28/stock_master390_140327170710
March 27th, 2014 at 7:08 pmZorg…
one thing is for sure….markets trade to extremes in both directions. they overshoot on the upside and trares never fail to demolish a weak chart. this is not an unusual phenomenon that has occured time and time again over the last few years. the S&P has done a whole lot of song and dance since the beginning of the year, but is just about where it started the year off. this is not unsimilar to last year's move, where the first quarter was soggy and the third quarter the markets took off. would not be surprised to see similar move this year. as i've noted yesterday, i'm of the opinion that there is sector rotation from biotech and internet (and names that had big runs) to sectors like energy. there is significant underlying strength in O&G names and service names which was clearly evident this morning when the selling intensified in the general markets. don't have a feel one way or the other. the S&P could as easily get to 1800 in the near term as it can break out to 1900. using Zman kind patience in this chop.
March 27th, 2014 at 8:50 pmMPO gets new love
http://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/billionaire-steven-cohen-initiates-position-in-midstates-petroleum-company-inc-mpo-boosts-stake-in-zynga-inc-znga-318719/
March 27th, 2014 at 8:56 pmFull notes on AMZG quarterly call in the morning post.
March 27th, 2014 at 9:05 pmlooks like EQT made a somewhat meaningful gap fill from early February….probably was a buy at 94….can't own them all
March 27th, 2014 at 9:08 pmre: 209
good to see you back Zman……
March 27th, 2014 at 9:10 pmThanks, good to be back.
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February 14th, 2015 at 2:08 am