24
Feb
Monday Morning
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Market Sentiment Watch: Tsunami of E&P 4Q13 reports this week (see calendar in the Stuff section or on the Calendar tab) as 14 owned names and another 8 names we care about report. We like busy weeks and this is going to be a really busy one. On the ecodata front we get a read on the consumer and more assurances from Yellen that the economy is grudgingly on the mend but also that rates are not going to be rising as soon as some voting Fed members would apparently like. In today's post please find The Week That Was (and it was a pretty good one as 2014 goes so far), the earnings calendar, and a subscriber mailbag question and answer along with some other odds and ends. Also, mark your calendar for a private call with the CEO of OEDV, one week from today, 1 PM EST, March 3rd. We'll get AMZG on the calendar for a private call shortly as well. Today's post is open to the public so feel free to share the link about the web via email, Twitter, Facebook, carrier pigeon etc.
Ecodata Watch:
- No economic releases scheduled.
The Week Ahead:
- Tuesday 2/25: Case-Shiller home prices, FHFA home price index, consumer confidence,
- Wednesday 2/26: New home sales,
- Thursday 2/27: Jobless claims, durable goods, Yellen testifies to Senate,
- Friday 2/28: GDP 4Q13 revision, Chicago PMI, consumer sentiment, pending home sales.
In Today’s Post:
- Holdings Watch
- Commodity Watch
- The Week That Was
- Stuff We Care About Today - Energy Earnings Calendar - Week 6, Subscriber Mailbag
- Odds & Ends
Click the link directly below this to ... 
Holdings Watch:
ZLT (Zman Long Term portfolio)
- The Blotter is updated.
Commodity Watch
Crude oil closed up another 2% last week at $102.20 on another big draw down of Cushing stocks and despite tepid U.S. product demand and more quiet, and flatly priced international markets. We do not see the recent move over $100 as sustainable. See the The Week That Was below for additional comments. This morning crude is trading flat.
- Libya Watch: Ongoing protests continue to crimp supply out of the country with Reuters reporting volumes have fallen to 230,000 bopd from a recent 500,000+ bopd (the first half of 2013 saw Libya average close to 1.4 mm bopd. Libya is one of the areas of concern from the standpoint of a possible return of volumes in 2H14 although that currently does not look all that promising.
Natural gas jump 18% to close at $6.14 last week (roughly five year high for the front month) after EIA reported another super-sized and record for this week of the year withdrawal from storage. Unlike in prior weeks, the 12 month strip didn't inch up as the front month yoyo'd about but instead advanced sharply itself, ending the week up 6% at $4.92. See The Week That Was section below for more comments. This morning gas is trading up 5%.
- Exports Watch: Late in 2014 we now expect the proposed and funded NET Line to be open for business with additional export capacity to Mexico of a whopping 2 Bcfgpd from the Eagle Ford. Roughly 1.9 Bcfgpd was heading south last year so if full this means net imports to the U.S. (Net volumes from Canada plus LNG Imports (almost non-existent now) less volumes sent south to Mexico) will be cut sharply (net imports to the US ran only 3.26 Bcfgpd as of last November). This means net supply growth in the U.S.could be negative in 2015.
Weather Watch: Much Warmer
- Last week's weather: Gas weighted Heating Degree Days came in at 169 vs 192 normal and 243 in the prior week which helped to generate last Thursday's record for that week of the year 250 Bcf withdrawal report.
- This week's forecast: HDDs are forecast to jump back up to 220 vs 180 normal for this week of the year.
The Week That Was
Stuff We Care About Today
Subscriber Mailbag
Q) CVX's comment about the Permian at the CS Vail Conf. They don't believe the Permian is fully delineated and intend to launch a bigger program if we like what they see. Would you call the Permian pretty well proven? You think CVX is just being cautious and usually does things with a 10 year time horizon or just being coy so they can accumulate property before others think they want to be all in? You have 4-5 names in the Permian that you would call the easy to own names? Thanks
ZComments:
- That CVX makes sense. At least from a horizontal perspective there are big swaths of each of the three Permain sub-basins (Delaware, Midland, Central Uplift---) that are only sparsely populated with horizontal tests. From a vertical perspective however the Permian in general is a pin cushion. And from that vertical well control a lot is known about how the roughly 3,000' of thickness varies across the various counties involved.
- Yes, I'd call it pretty well proven in terms of hydrocarbons in place but definitely not entirely delineated from the standpoint of how much is going to be a horizontal vs a vertical play and in what zones. That work is ongoing now across all three basins and results have largely been positive but still, it's a big space,
- Easy to own. PXD for long term holders. We don't own it but they are the kings here and rarely disappoint and they are top notch operators. After that its more difficult to say. FANG is a tempting call simply because of their style on the calls and their results and stock performance to date. The others we own are too soon to make that call for in terms of being public.
Earnings Calendar - Energy Earnings 4Q13, Week 6
Tuesday Reporters
EOG
- Leader in the Eagle Ford - look for another string of monster wells with some more announced big wells in the western portion of their acreage (traditionally it's been the Gonzales area in the northeast that's been big Kahuna well country),
- Highly probable they advance average EURs for the entire Eagle Ford play with this call.
- Look for them to talk more about the Permian (again) but to still downplay the play's importance relative to the Bakken and especially vs the Eagle Ford.
- Bakken - look for more infill drilling results, look for more Antelope extension results, look for them to maybe talk about lower bench testing in the TFS.
- Balance sheet continues to strengthen and look for them to get asked about further return of capital to shareholders,
- Guidance for 2014 already out there, likely reiteration, potential for slight acceleration,
- As always, look for a good walking through of the macro for oil and natural gas (expect them to show a little surprise over natural gas prices but to warn that it's due to a strong winter and that prices will soon retreat - though not at as much as they normally would have).
- We continue to own the name in the ZLT.
CRZO
- Pre-announced 4Q oil volumes at high end of range,
- Eagle Ford - expect little new data this quarter.
- Utica - look for comments on a 30 day rate on their recently announced first operated Utica well in Guernsey County, OH as well as hook up timing there and regarding the location of the spud of their second well in 2Q14. Expect them to highlight their acreage being right in the AR targetted area.
- Marcellus - probably talk of near term upper Marcellus tests but no data,
- We continue to own the name in the ZLT.
ROSE
- Production was pre-announced,
- Eagle Ford - We may get comments on their first upper EFS test outside of Gates Ranch on the call (may or may not be IP'd by time of call as it is on their first 3 well pad). Implication could be a significant add to location count if it works.
- Permian - looking forward to maybe two more upper Wolf Camp wells in Reeves County and longer term rate on their first operated well.
- We continue to own the name in the ZLT.
AREX
- Permian player that still has not participated in the great Permian rally of 2013/2014,
- Looking for a basic update of the 2014 plan and progress report.
- We do not own the name.
SDRL
- Name of interest on the site; we do not own the name.
Other Stuff
- MHR - 4Q13 CC at 11 am EST.
Odds & Ends
Analyst Watch:
- RRC - SunTrust raises target by $20 to $110, rating stays Buy,
- PVA - Imperial ups target $5.50 to $18, rating Outperform,
- PVA - Canaccord ups target $4 to $18, rating Buy,
- HAL - Wells Fargo cuts to Market Perform on valuation,
- HAL - Raymond James ups to Strong Buy from Outperform,
- PDCE - Topeka raises target by $7 to $75, stays Buy,
- SM - Topeka cuts target by $12 to $100, stays Buy,
- GDP - SunTrust cuts target by $10 to $30, stays Buy,
- GDP - Canaccord cuts target by $6 to $24, stays Buy
S&P Short Term Areas of Interest 2/24, 8:12 AM ES 1834.25/ SPY Levels in ()
Notes….. Market tested recent highs on Friday and returned to acceptance at the Major CHVN at 1836.75. Balanced trading. Demand volume flat. Breadth trend positive. Nasdaq leading. Financials/Transports lagging. Primary uptrend intact.
Thoughts …… Market working off recent run up in balanced/choppy trading around the 1836.75 CHVN while gradually building acceptance higher. Slight upside bias here until we see how the market treats the 1836.75 CHVN going forward. This area has been very well auctioned now and move above 1836.75 has range expansion potential. A rejection of 1836.75 that extends below 1832 is another kettle of fish….
1846.50 All Time Highs
1840.50 Minor CLVN/ Resistance
1836.75 CHVN/ (183.53)
1824 CLVN/Minor support with lower volume area below to 1806
1806 CLVN/Support
1798.25 Minor CHVN
1794.50 CLVN
1794.50 CLVN/Support
1781.50 Major CHVN(179.32)
1723.50 Major CLVN and low volume area below to 1700
SP500 Futures
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/es_clean_140224043525
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/es_clean_140224043017
February 24th, 2014 at 8:09 amSPY 183.53 CHVN Volume Pivot. Upside bias above that level. Support at 181.12
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/stock_master390_140224051007
February 24th, 2014 at 8:11 amSWN new cycle highs pre market on light volume
Analyst Watch:
NBL – KLR starting with Buy and $91 target (DJ Basin differentials apparently not scaring them off)
February 24th, 2014 at 8:16 amNG Strip – less enthusiastic (as it should be) than the front month's noise, but still green on the forecast that will drive us eventually below 1,200 Bcf for a trough in about 5 weeks.
http://www.barchart.com/commodityfutures/Natural_Gas_Futures/NG?search=NG*
February 24th, 2014 at 8:23 amOT Reminder
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2014/02/24/people-who-cannot-accurately-forecast-markets/
February 24th, 2014 at 8:28 amSPWR Settling up for a breakout
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/stock_master390_140224053316
CSIQ
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/stock_master390_140224053434
February 24th, 2014 at 8:34 amSWN 44.25 was my WAG a couple weeks ago for the next range high…If I'm wrong (and I hope I am)note the long term volume base/congestion thins above that level should it break…
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/stock_master390_140224053644
February 24th, 2014 at 8:41 amCOG Support 35.30. Near Resistance 37.56
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/stock_master390_140224054423
February 24th, 2014 at 8:45 amPDCE 56.72 Support
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/stock_master390_140224054744
February 24th, 2014 at 8:48 amSDRL: Summary of some comments made by MS last week. The idea of a dividend cut seems improbable. History: They did cut their dividend at the end of '08 into '09. That was due to banking financing difficulties rather than industry fundamentals. Two of their rigs coming out of yards in '14 have LOI's from Nigeria West Saturn @ $615K/day for 2-3 years starting May of '14 and West Jupiter @ $585K/day for 5 years starting in Sept. Estimates for tommorrow. EBITDA $771mm EPS $.76 and dividend of $96 up $.01. Expecting $4.00/share by the end of '14. Lets look at the debt. As of end of 3rdq they had total debt of $14.3B. 70% is aaset backed. As of 3rdq they had a funding gap of $13.1B thru '15 which consists of shipyard installments ($7.8B) and debt repayments of $5.3B. In the 4thq they have knock down this gap to $8.9B. $1.75B credit facility for Sevan Drilling, West Taurus facility $390mm, $250mm sale of SapuraKencana shares etc etc.The remaining $8.9B can be handled with 1. Refinancing existing facilities that are maturing in '14-'15 2. securing credit facilities on uncollaterized newbuilds '15 & '16 (75% of value). That should raise $9.1B enough to fund the gap. Now that the Pemex JU deal is complete that is also a credit facility possibility. We should note that there are industry headwinds but SDRL has been very committed to their above average dividend. Short of Brent below $80/bl I would stay the course and would not want to be short with a 10%+ expense each year.
February 24th, 2014 at 8:55 amBDI unch
Brent/WTI at 7.2
TNX at 2.739
February 24th, 2014 at 8:57 amThanks Zorg. Re 5 = ture and LOL.
re SRL – thanks Tom, put it on the list, no interest by me at this time and not planning to listen but please do share comments for the site tomorrow if you have time.
re 11 – thanks.
February 24th, 2014 at 8:59 amNG March
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/ng_master_140224060321
February 24th, 2014 at 9:03 amFSLR Upgrade to 62 from Baird..Trading at resistance.Lagging badly…
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/stock_master390_140224060728
February 24th, 2014 at 9:08 amAnalyst Watch
PVA – Howard Weil ups from $16 to $23, stays Outperform
February 24th, 2014 at 9:11 amNo comments from the MHR gallery this morning on earnings?
February 24th, 2014 at 9:12 amFCX-may be good news in Indonesia-it is never done until it is done:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/freeport-resume-indonesia-copper-exports-081418807.html
February 24th, 2014 at 9:25 amMHR
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/stock_master390_140224062600
February 24th, 2014 at 9:26 amI'm out of town in Orlando today, but did have a chance to skim the report. Nothing out of the ordinary, don't know why they moved the call up. They continue to fail to meet their own production targets, but thankfully this isn't a production story just yet. Debt continues to grow which is concerning but not lethal. I'm now fairly certain they are shopping the Williston assets.
February 24th, 2014 at 9:30 amRICE: Dan Rice will be on Mad Money tonight.
February 24th, 2014 at 9:31 amre 19 – thanks Dedwards, I'd guess they moved the call up so as not to conflic with the busy schedule this week. People have been saying it's not a production story for a long time there.
February 24th, 2014 at 9:32 amthanks Tom for the SDRL analysis
February 24th, 2014 at 9:33 amre 20 – thanks, DR III or DR IV?
February 24th, 2014 at 9:34 amAn oldy from March of 2012 but …
http://seekingalpha.com/article/431451-the-street-is-too-timid-on-penn-virginia
February 24th, 2014 at 9:34 amWatching COG continue to come in post 4Q call.
February 24th, 2014 at 9:37 am22 r09traveler Happy you find it helpful. Don't be afraid to ask any other questions re SDRL. I am no Z but have followed story for quite awhile.
February 24th, 2014 at 9:44 amAnyone see something related to the SDCJF halt? I can't find anything.
February 24th, 2014 at 9:48 amRE 23: Didn't catch that. Showed a photo of a relatively young man, if that helps.
February 24th, 2014 at 9:48 amPXD EOG Volume above average for time of day…big money rotation?
February 24th, 2014 at 9:51 amre 28 – it does thanks, that's likely the son and CEO, DR IV.
re 27 – nothing yet on the ASX site, would expect it today.
S&P about to take out the January high.
February 24th, 2014 at 9:51 amPXD at resistance…lost my charts for the moment
February 24th, 2014 at 9:52 amre 29 – safty/liquidity names in EFS and Permian. Makes since with oil failing to pull a RAJA chacha to $65.
February 24th, 2014 at 9:58 amMildly surprised if no press release this week out of JONE. Getting late on the guidance update there.
February 24th, 2014 at 10:00 amSWN-on fire-mucho caliente.
February 24th, 2014 at 10:01 amBCEI is recovering from its internal spat nicely…had foolishly sold out, but reloaded some time back around $42…nice
February 24th, 2014 at 10:03 amre 34 Re SWN
Earnings there Friday
– biggest wells yet in the Fayetteville, also among fastest drilled.
– Brown Dense verticals to talk about on that call as well.
February 24th, 2014 at 10:04 amZ – Do you have a price on GDPAN that you might have more interest? Would you like to see a little more drilling success before adding?
February 24th, 2014 at 10:06 amNatgas: Nearby futures contracts showing a large spread. Current month 5.78 and next month 4.83 (expires March 27) almost 1.00 difference for just 30 days. Market anticipating a sharp drop in the next 30 days.
February 24th, 2014 at 10:08 amre 35 – hey, glad to hear you're back. It remains the #1 position in the ZLT.
PVA is still cheap ya know although we will do some Trading Only Position trimming and rebalancing somewhere over $15. I got some distressed emails last summer (2013) from the SA editorial staff about how that one had not done well since my March 2012 piece (holding in the $4 to $7 range with a headfake in summer 2012). Funny but I think when I say 2 to 3 years I mean 2 to 3 years. They get all excited if it breaks higher later the day of the post. That's just no way to think about a portfolio.
February 24th, 2014 at 10:12 amre 37 – Near here is fine and I may add a little within the next 2 weeks or so, probably a little before and then a little after the Weyerhaueser well.
re 38 – yeah, this is why the stocks and I don't get all that excited about weather. Nothing has changed from a supply and demand standpoint, we just have a better than expected starting point for storage to begin injecting. We'll mark 1Q13 to market soon and then probably only inch up 2Q and 3Q prices. $5+ would be quite bad for generation demand and we would see a shift from week after week of record demand due to "cold" to week after week of record injections due to "coal".
February 24th, 2014 at 10:17 amAMZG inching
February 24th, 2014 at 10:17 amGST doing a private call with GHS clients now.
February 24th, 2014 at 10:20 amNice to see some traction come to REXX
February 24th, 2014 at 10:32 amBCEI not alone in rebound, NBL price target upgrade helping other Wattenbergs as well, see SYRG, PDCE.
February 24th, 2014 at 10:34 amREXX another I rebought…
February 24th, 2014 at 10:35 amre 45 – fine, then please rebuy more of my names 😉
February 24th, 2014 at 10:36 amHAL taking out November highs:
Always amused to see the SS going opposite directions on the same day:
-
HAL – Wells Fargo cuts to Market Perform on valuation,
-
HAL – Raymond James ups to Strong Buy from Outperform (presumably on valuation as well, LOL),
February 24th, 2014 at 10:39 amThe last time HAL was this high was mid 11 and then mid 08 and that's it. It's of course quite a bit cheaper than it was last time.
February 24th, 2014 at 10:41 amXOP running 2x avg volume for time of day
February 24th, 2014 at 10:44 amMHR call in 15 minutes
February 24th, 2014 at 10:45 amre::24 That was a terrific call, Z. Many thanks, it has been ( and will continue to be, I'm betting) a very profitable run in that stock for me.
February 24th, 2014 at 10:54 amre 51 – Thanks and glad it's working for ya.
MHR call about to start, notes in a bit …
February 24th, 2014 at 10:59 amZorg, on the natgas producers chart you maintain has the long term resistance barrier been breached yet? That is a significant price point for the natgas names, which are burning it up today.
February 24th, 2014 at 11:05 amMHR 4Q13 Notes
643,000 net acres now across both areas
Appalachia – 12,000 BOEpd as of last Friday
Marcellus:
– shut in but tested wells, 5 net Marcellus wells, = 4,300 BOEpd net
– several more net Marcellus completing now
– 2 more net WOC in Marcellus
– Will bring the Stalder stacked lateral with the Utica back on this week
– talking about the winter being exceptionally brutal – no argument there, that's easy to excuse.
– would have been at 22,000 BOEpd at exit 2013 were it not for the cold (thinking they lost 50 productive days over the winter)
– EURs approaching 12 Bcf,
– in process remaining wells on 2 pads mentioned in pr
Utica:
– 1 Utica well WOC
Williston Basin
– Focus on Ambrose area (Divide County)
– 2 to 4 rigs running at any time
– productive capacity of 4,500 bopd
– Walking through catalyst wells with Samson, Baytex, CLR
– 3 mile long M Bakken well with CLR operating, fraccing 50 stages there now.
– 9 net wells in the Ambrose area
– seeing strong netbacks
– thinking $10 LOE and $15 F&D in the Williston (sounds fair)
– flaring about 500 boepd of NG, will be 95% gathered by YE14
– see tie in with pipelines this year, reducing LOE by YE14
…
February 24th, 2014 at 11:22 amEGY up 5.91% on less than normal volume and no news…………………however, @ Enercom last week the new President [Steve Guidry] did mention the Exploration well they were drilling on the Dimba Prospect [Offshore shallow water Gabon in thier Etame Marin concession] 28.1 % WI Vaalco is the operator would be at TD this last weekend. It had targets in both the Gamba and Luchinda.
Additionally last week @ Enercom he advised they had a semisub rig for Drilling Block P in Eq. Guinea in Q4 2014. They already have a discovery in Block P and the drilling effort in Q4 will be to determine if 2 nearby prospects are also oil bearing so they can size the FPSO they will need for Block P.
Would expect Vaalco to also announce @ the upcoming Q4 CC they have an agreement with GE Petrol. [National Oil Company of Eq. Guinea] that Vaalco & GE Petrol will be co-operators on Blcock P……………Vaalco has 31% WI in Blkock P.
February 24th, 2014 at 11:26 amMHR 4Q13 Notes 2
– volumes ramping nicely into Eureka Hunter
– no new weaknesses in the 2013 audit.
– Production was in excess of 14,000 BOEpd in January without the Stalder well on line.
Hedges
– 4,600 bopd $85 floor 2014
– minimal hedge in 2015
Capex
2014 – $400 mm ($260 mm in Marcellus/Utica (including some leasehold) and $50 mm Williston and rest to midstream)
Liquidity – $65 mm
Variety of options to fund – cash flow, borrowings (expect borrowing base to go up), non core sales, and possible equity transactions
Litigation update – 4 cases filed against executives last year. All 4 dismissed with prejudice. Very please there are no stockholder cases against directors or officers at this time.
Non Core asset sales
– big one was to PVA
– another $400 mm in non core – Canada, some EOR projects, and non core North Dakota acreage no in their Ambrose area.
– data rooms are open on all of these and they are in negotiations.
– this will help fund this year's gap and then Midstream is set to open its own revolver.
Reminding people the miss on production at year end was due to combo of asset sales and weather.
Goal is to be better with respect to wells they drill, saying Stalder is a good example of the improvement they want,
Saying they think you will see more JV's in the Utica
Comparing big pads in the Utica with 10 or more wells being like what you used to see in from gassy platforms on the Shelf (no kidding but with a lot less risk)
We're a direct beneficiary of higher natural gas prices (I missed his exact current hedge for 2014 but it's 33 MM/d or so so about all of current but much less than expected 2014 average volumes for gas).
Q&A starting now …
February 24th, 2014 at 11:36 amOAS breaching 200 day from below. Nice to see it continue to rally after the raft of analyst crunching down their targets following the guidance call.
February 24th, 2014 at 11:40 amMHR 4Q13 Q&A
Q) How man net Utica wells this year
A) 2 Farley wells, then one more due south of Stalder, and 2 more in a possible JV in Washington County late in the year. Talking about the impact of pad drilling and lumpyness … that's something that smooths out over time as well. Short answer though is 3 Utica and possible 5+ this year.
Q) How JV to work
A) We must operate. Recent results show we know what we are doing (they are referring to that 30+ MM/d well just east of AR's main area)
Q) Acreage?
A) Expecting continued strong pickup in the Utica; said 30 to 40,000 net pickup in the next 12 to 18 months I think (kind of broke up there for a minute). Being more careful in the Marcellus and just filling in donut holes.
…
February 24th, 2014 at 11:41 amnice to see the XOP leading the SP handily now…got me excited; why I was not seeing your e-mails
February 24th, 2014 at 11:41 am#53….Re Nat Gas Producer chart…Long term resistance/volume base
I used end of day data for that chart so we won't know until after the close but my thinking was that was up for a test soon and I'm positioned for it…either long or in the short term
Watching FCG as an intra day proxy shows good price movement but volume still lacking…looking at the individual stocks I don't see a lot of volume either…yet….
I'll post the chart tonight after the close
My charts are inoperative at the moment…lost all the data at the open…downloading now
February 24th, 2014 at 11:42 amHK loosening up some
February 24th, 2014 at 11:44 amHK volume 1.8X average atm
February 24th, 2014 at 11:44 amDid I miss something on HK today?
February 24th, 2014 at 11:45 amHK call coming up…last time I thought it went well, but VD got the upper hand….
February 24th, 2014 at 11:46 amThat was fast, before I finished posting! Zorg is reading my mind.
February 24th, 2014 at 11:47 amsaw nothing on HK, other than a SA article that showed them permitting wells in a new county in the ElHalcon, near a CWEI well, but a good distance from others they drilled
February 24th, 2014 at 11:48 amOAS KOG EOG TPLM CLR all above average volume for time of day
February 24th, 2014 at 11:50 amEOX as well..still struggling though
February 24th, 2014 at 11:50 amMHR 4Q13 Q&A 2
Q) Timing of asset sales and pipeline JV?
A) We're having active discussions almost every day. Turned down a lot of bids. Saying with higher prices their assets for sale value is going up. Said to look for some announcements next 30 days. Board has decided for now to keep Eureka Hunter.
Q) Current production question? At 16,700 BOEpd now?
A) Current production does include Tableland of 600 to 700 BOEpd.
Q) YE14 Exit ?
A) Sticking with 35,000 BOEpd exit rate. Says we'll have a better idea by Summer but feel good about that number.
Q) Stalder update well?
A) Said we shut it in to frac the Marcellus well on that pad, back on soon (as per .
Q) Kim P asking about 30 day rates on the longer laterals, saying they are low to EUR / recent wells in the m Bakken.
A) Said they only reported last 5 wells and those were on the same pad and that you only get a couple on and the rest lose energy and you lose the high IP and some of those have to go on pump instead of flowing naturally early. Saying several of the wells sat around for 60 days.
Q) 2 mile laterals costs
A) Saying they are falling (think he said $6.4 mm) … Street is not generally impressed with north Divide County. I'd say be patient and watch the cumulative data / first two year's shallow decline.
Q) Spitzer well and a few others, had 27 stages vs normal 16 to 19
A) Have been experimenting with shorter stage lengths. Settling on 200' stage spacing vs 150' … best bang or buck so far.
q) What can you do to limit impact of cold weather
A) Having to build shrouds on the BOPs, also saying the robotic rigs where people don't have to be outside will help as well. Said we are good down to 20 degrees, and 10 if the temps jump up to over freezing occassionally. Below 10 is a problem.
…
February 24th, 2014 at 11:53 amPermians extending.
FANG at new high, ATHL as well, RSPP taking a little rest after a run, would expect that to press higher with FANG over time.
February 24th, 2014 at 11:54 amFTK – new high going back to early 2008.
February 24th, 2014 at 11:55 amRe 60: Ok, thanks Zorg.
February 24th, 2014 at 11:57 amMHR Q&A 3
Q) Leverage at YE14
A) Hopefully lower. Combo of asset sale pricing and hope to call warrants worth $150 mm
Q) Asset sales associated production
A) 2,000 to 2,500 BOEpd
Q) Redetermination timing
A) Working on it now. Saying it will be a meaningful increase due to the increase in PDP. We'll due a June 30 reserve report to cover all the reserve adds in the Utica over 1H14.
Q) Mentioned potential financial markets transactions … what's that mean?
A) Well the stock has done well, mentioned the warrants as well, want to call in the Series C and Series D and can force conversion of the E around $11.
February 24th, 2014 at 12:04 pmMHR Q&A 4
Q) How much Utica acreage do you ultimately want to hold
A) Combined with Marcellus, would like to get to 250,000 net acres. Will do more trading and more JVs.
Call ending
Analyst tone fairly neutral, no one overy bearish or bullish sound, pretty constructive overall.
February 24th, 2014 at 12:08 pmThansk for the notes Z. Any mention of why they pulled the call up?
Hope they don't get greedy on those assets sales. Cash is king.
February 24th, 2014 at 12:16 pmThansk for the notes Z. Any mention of why they pulled the call up?
Hope they don't get greedy on those asset sales. Cash is king.
February 24th, 2014 at 12:16 pmMHR closed the 2/14 gap
February 24th, 2014 at 12:20 pmre 76 – no. My best guess is that they took a look at the calendar above and decided they wanted to be able to walk through all the parts of the story on a day when people cared as opposed to trying it on a day when no one would care except to call the quarter a brick on weather. It's what I would have done.
February 24th, 2014 at 12:24 pmTwo California lawmakers have unveiled a new bill that would halt fracking in the state. I bet they don't know what fracking actually is.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/21/us-california-fracking-moratorium-idUSBREA1K23620140221
February 24th, 2014 at 12:26 pmre 79 – They just want other people's natural gas, LOL.
February 24th, 2014 at 12:34 pmMHR Support 8.30 Far support 7.47
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/stock_master390_140224093437
February 24th, 2014 at 12:35 pmre 79 #2 – and that will make it impossible to crack the code on the Monterey.
February 24th, 2014 at 12:36 pmPXD Breaking out
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/stock_master390_140224093537
February 24th, 2014 at 12:36 pmre 83 – yeah, you have Bakken (CLR), Permian (PXD), EFS (EOG) leadership names all in breakout mode now … dragging the mids and smalls along. Nice to see TPLM extending again.
February 24th, 2014 at 12:37 pmand DJ Basin (NBL)
February 24th, 2014 at 12:38 pmATHL
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/stock_master390_140224093825
February 24th, 2014 at 12:39 pmand Marcellus (RRC but not COG). AR and SWN working higher as well. Expect to hear SWN added to its fairly low hedge book for 2014 later this week at strong prices.
February 24th, 2014 at 12:39 pmCRZO moving to top of recent wide base range (back to October highs and they didn't sell off with the group) in front of tomorrow's quarter. Pleased but not expecting a huge amount of new data on this call, just a reiteration of guidance and a bit more news on their Utica well.
February 24th, 2014 at 12:49 pmCRZO
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/stock_master390_140224095337
February 24th, 2014 at 12:53 pmThanks Zorg,
Offtopicthirty, grabbing lunch, back in a bit.
February 24th, 2014 at 12:56 pmPVA at $15, nice to see.
February 24th, 2014 at 12:56 pmBOP – do know of anything material going on with STSI? She seems to be crusing pretty nicely the past week or so. Back up at $1 on good volume.
February 24th, 2014 at 12:58 pmZ, regarding MHR operations in N. Divide County ………………how close are they to AMZG?
Also note MHR saying the decline rate on the N. Diivide County Wells is low…………same thing AMZG was saying.
February 24th, 2014 at 1:01 pmZ: MHR when Gary sold his EFS to PVA he stated that he thought where he was going was more profitable property. Is it too early to call who got the better of the trade MHR or PVA?
February 24th, 2014 at 1:05 pmAubrey on the tape having raised $700 mm to acreage and production in the Miss-Wood play in central OK
February 24th, 2014 at 1:09 pmre 95 he should just buy OEDV and SDCJF. That would make my year.
February 24th, 2014 at 1:12 pmre 93
– just east of AMZG
– yeah. We pulled just over a dozen wells when developing our curve for AMZG's wells and noted the low decline rate and McKenzie like cumulatives out of this low IP, non sexy, mostly Three Forks wells. So it's not a myth, its a fact.
re 94 – PVA is certainly liking what they got in that deal.
February 24th, 2014 at 1:15 pmre 96 – re Aubrey and SDCJF – well, that would be a noteworthy "market condition" for a trading halt. "Pssst, don't do that deal, I'll just you."
February 24th, 2014 at 1:23 pmREXX Pausing at the CLVN 18.93/CHVN 19.
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/stock_master390_140224100734
February 24th, 2014 at 1:24 pmHK 3.95 CLVN resistance at the moment
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/stock_master390_140224102344
February 24th, 2014 at 1:25 pmS&P Futs still working a trend day above 1853.25..VPOC at
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/es_intraday_140224102652
February 24th, 2014 at 1:28 pmS&P Futs still working a trend day above 1853.25..VPOC at 1851. Needs to stay above the 1850 LVN to avoid a reversal
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/es_intraday_140224102652
February 24th, 2014 at 1:29 pmugh, SDCJF down 25%. I wonder what happened…
February 24th, 2014 at 1:35 pmre 103 – no news on their site yet or the ASX site. Just a handful of trades down there, somebody wanted out.
February 24th, 2014 at 1:41 pmSUNDANCE Energy Australia is poised to exit a trading halt to reveal it has put its United States dual listing on ice amid poor market conditions, and the gas explorer is instead tapping the Australian market for $60 million.
It has been confirmed to Business Spectator that Euroz Securities, based in Perth, is running an equity raising in Australia for about $60.5 million. The listed Perth broker is selling 63.6 million shares at 95c apiece.
February 24th, 2014 at 1:41 pmre 105 – thanks, nice sale price on that. Silly for that to be reason for a sell off. It's about a third the size of the old deal, they need to talk about what the real reason for putting the kibosh on the deal is though because as I look around, these are not poor market conditions.
February 24th, 2014 at 1:43 pmand adding to that, if it does sell off further, we are fine adding more, it's about 1.6% of the greater ZLT now.
February 24th, 2014 at 1:44 pmre 103-105 Thanks Z and Justin.
Market conditions are not poor. The offering appears to not have been well received which scares me when it's as cheap as it is.
February 24th, 2014 at 1:46 pmSPWR 35% of float short
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/stock_master390_140224104702
February 24th, 2014 at 1:47 pmZ I've seen your numbers and gone through the roadshow presentation what might we be missing? What are all the risks?
February 24th, 2014 at 1:48 pmTried to snap up a few SDCJF but the ask is already .80.
February 24th, 2014 at 1:55 pmre 110
Same as with an small E&P
The roadshow looked fine, the plan remains unchanged, I heard they had trouble getting meetings due to the weather but I'd just postpone if that was the case. Otherwise, they have been executing well. They could really stand to update their website with current data and slideshow but suspect that comes now that the deal is off and repackaged as a smaller Australian offering.
February 24th, 2014 at 1:59 pmyep, huge spread between buy and ask right now. The $60 million Australian offering was about 5% below last trade there. My guess is it will move back to equilibrium with that price.
I'm concerned about why the offering didn't go well. We are missing something.
February 24th, 2014 at 2:01 pmre 113 – sure but until they speak to a better reason it's going to stay that way. I don't see an issue with the guidance or the math that works out of the guidance.
February 24th, 2014 at 2:10 pmBoth hit top of range today..
SWN
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/stock_master390_140224111912
RRC
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/stock_master390_140224111935
February 24th, 2014 at 2:20 pmre: 48
Zman…. HAL gets to the highs every 3 years? 2008, 2011, 2014….seems like a recurrent pattern
February 24th, 2014 at 2:23 pmre 113 – reason for the huge spread is that it's still halted in Australia and people are guessing over in the U.S.
February 24th, 2014 at 2:23 pmre 116 – Definition of a coincidence. 2008 was a broad market induced tumble. 2011 was overcapacity in pressure pumping that sapped NAM margins while the turn in International margins was still too nascent to matter to the story. SLB, BHI exhibit the exact same pattern. Given the fundamental growth at HAL and ongoing margin improvement we are looking for fresh highs, not all at once and it's probably moving a bit too far too fast in the last couple of weeks but the 4Q call beat down on the 6% global spend comment out of SLB (instead of 10% as most wanted to hear) has now run its course through the names of OIH and been more than reversed by this post 4Q release recovery.
February 24th, 2014 at 2:31 pmChoices- thanks for the pickup on FCX. Stock should start to do quite a bit better.
February 24th, 2014 at 2:33 pmEld – thanks for the headsup on RRC reporting tomorrow night for a Wednesday call, we had missed that one.
February 24th, 2014 at 2:37 pmEld – have you seen Robry yet for this week?
February 24th, 2014 at 2:38 pmRobry -94 and then back to -200
February 24th, 2014 at 2:43 pmZ- are you still expecting something from EOX any day now?
February 24th, 2014 at 2:47 pmre 122 – thanks, makes sense looking at the forecast. Excellent starting point for injections. We've already pulled more natural gas out of storage for the time of year than in in year on record and we'll be at a record for the whole year after the next two withdrawals with about 4 weeks left to go in the season.
February 24th, 2014 at 2:49 pmYes, increased guidance for 2014 to take into account acquired volumes. They should be able to lift it more just the acquired amount (roughly 200 bopd) from 3,300 to 3,500 BOEpd. We have them closer to 3,900 BOEpd. We expected this any time after mid Feb so they could just wait to put it in with the 4Q13 call and we have not yet seen a date set for that call. So no change in thinking since this set of notes and cheat sheet were posted in January:
http://zmansenergybrain.com/2014/01/24/friday-morning-oil-and-natural-gas-inventory-review-plus-athl-eox-rice-and-more/
February 24th, 2014 at 2:55 pmCOG tagged far support today 35.30
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/stock_master390_140224115829
February 24th, 2014 at 2:59 pmCOG Intra-day above support. Trading sideways. Sold some Jul 35 puts earlier
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/stock_master390_140224115942
February 24th, 2014 at 3:00 pmSundance news on the ASX … no new news yet, still shows under halt:
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/companyInfo.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=SEA
February 24th, 2014 at 3:06 pmRSPP – going yippee skippee balistic again in fast follower action after FANG.
February 24th, 2014 at 3:07 pmCS quickie on WFT: new CFO spoke at ourconference; ' there are adults in the room the St.' hasn't met yet. His est. of net debt for '13 to '15 is $8B to $6B to $-11B. (I'm trying to get a model.)
February 24th, 2014 at 3:10 pmre 130
That progression is:
$8B
$6B
and net no net debt and $11 B cash? Did they move HQ to a hash den in Colorado? I'd like to see the math on that too.
February 24th, 2014 at 3:17 pmZ, thanks for the MHR notes. It's funny how there was very little new incremental news and stock is down 7%. The seriousness of the funding gap leads me to think there will be some kind of transaction there soon. Warrants, Williston, and JV all on the table.
February 24th, 2014 at 3:20 pmre 132 – Happy to help as I knew you were on the road. Growth should be able to hockeystick there with spring like weather. I didn't get the sense that the whole Bakken was for sale, just outlying parts. I think Paganowski's question on the Bakken 30 day rates threw them a bit, maybe scare people. It deflated a little rally in AMZG quickly as well but this is all just noise and will pass in the medium term. I don't have my hands around the mix change at MHR (as we don't own it) but they are going to be pretty gassy growers this year, correct?
February 24th, 2014 at 3:24 pmHK…continues keeps knocking on the $4 door….knock knock
February 24th, 2014 at 3:28 pmre 134 – CC Thursday there. They've been very quiet for them. Worst kept secret in the E&P realm has been their move to redoulbe their acreage acquisition effort in the TMS. Look for them to talk about that but to focus much of the call on improved well results per lateral foot in both areas of the Williston and at El Halcon.
February 24th, 2014 at 3:32 pmAfter the close or before the open we have reports from EOG, CRZO, ROSE, AREX, and SDRL.
February 24th, 2014 at 3:35 pmre: 135
should have some color this week then..the suspense is killing me…
February 24th, 2014 at 3:41 pmRe 133: all the evidence we have to date suggests they will be gassy. The Farley wells are in the liquids window and their results will help clarify what the mix is going to be moving forward. I'm not too afraid of getting gassy as long as they can hedge forward over $4, but that opinion is not mainstream.
February 24th, 2014 at 3:48 pm131 yes, $11B cash. Only a 1 pager with summary numbers. He didn't adjust sales down for divesting but I suppose those net debt #s are adjusted. Other summary numbers squirelly also as they look to have some assumptions which are not spelled out. Checking.
February 24th, 2014 at 3:54 pmre 138 – hear ya, thanks.
Beerthirty, back in a bit with deets on anyone who reports tonight from our list.
February 24th, 2014 at 3:54 pm139 I'm intrigued that co. was at their conference so I suppose analyst got some quality time with mgt…
February 24th, 2014 at 3:55 pmS&P Futs…just about everyone that bought that breakout today is under water at the close..H&S pattern under 1846.50 intraday. Magnet lower at the 1836.75 Major CHVN
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/es_intraday_140224131119
February 24th, 2014 at 4:13 pmIs COG in buying territory yet ???
February 24th, 2014 at 5:02 pmre 143 – watching it, this is the range we have been adding in.
February 24th, 2014 at 5:29 pmJone out with an operations update
February 24th, 2014 at 5:33 pmEOG on the tape
– In line for volumes and EBITDA, ahead on EPS
– Most importantly, EFS reserve potential was boosted 45% to 3.2 B BOE vs a prior 2.2 B BOE. Reserves were boosted a whopping 12.5% per well to We were looking for this as per post today. Good for other EFS players from PVA in the NE to ROSE in the SW of the play.
– Announces 2 for 1 split
Details in morning post.
February 24th, 2014 at 5:42 pmre 145 – thanks, will take a look in a bit …
ROSE on the tape, reading …
February 24th, 2014 at 5:43 pmJONE basing it's guidance on the old well profile; says to monitor performance of 20 wells with the new frac design longer. Details in the morning post, that's not what they probably wanted to have to say at this point.
February 24th, 2014 at 5:48 pmNat Gas Producer Index Trading sideways below long term resistance/volume base top. Just add volume..
Daily Tested resistance. Demand volume supportive/flat.
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/nat_gas_producer_composite_index
Weekly Demand volume begining to turn up….
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/natural_gas_weekly
February 24th, 2014 at 5:54 pmOil Producer Index
Daily
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/oil_producer_index
Weekly
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/oil_producer_index_weekly
February 24th, 2014 at 6:03 pmBakken Index
Daily Breakout today…on decent volume
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/bakken_index
Weekly Still moving up from the bounce off a three year base
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/bakken_index_weekly
February 24th, 2014 at 6:13 pmPermian Index
Daily 2011 highs just above at 110. Demand volume remains strong.
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/permian_index
Weekly Three year highs just above at 110. Demand volume long term trend positive/expanding
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/24/permian_index_weekly
February 24th, 2014 at 6:23 pmROSE
Pre-announced volumes
Light on the revenue line, high to EPS at $0.83 vs $0.78 consensus
Reiterated 2014 guidance as expected
EFS – No numbers or real color update on stacked lateral tests in the EFS other than to say they are being closely watched and a 3rd pilot was drilled at GR and an upper EFS test was drilled at L&E lease as previously noted.
Permian – not much of an update there either, look for more color on the call.
Deets in the morning post.
February 24th, 2014 at 6:37 pmre: 127
Zorg…..awesome idea…i went in on a safer bet and sold the 32 1/2 puts….a bit of income never hurts.
February 24th, 2014 at 7:21 pmZ do you still have the link to last week's Enercom presentations?
February 24th, 2014 at 7:35 pmNG Excess high above 6.32 rejected and a return to acceptance at 5.50. The quarterly volume profile ssuggests that with a break much below the 5.34 CLVN I'd be looking for a test of 4.79 CLVN and below. Next major acceptance below is at the 4.30 CHVN. Minor resistance at the 5.71 CLVN
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/25/ng_master_140224163503
February 24th, 2014 at 7:42 pmre 155 : http://www.enercominc.com/the-oil-and-services-conference/webcast/#
February 24th, 2014 at 7:43 pmNOG finally broke through the $16 handle on slightly higher than average volume…its been some time since upward pressure has been mentioned in the same sentence as NOG, so there is hope yet.
February 24th, 2014 at 8:56 pmSDCJF – new filing on the ASX for a "suspension from Official Quotation"
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/companyInfo.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=SEA
February 24th, 2014 at 9:00 pmre: 156
Zorg…..interestingly enough, the early rise in NG followed by a sell off didn't quite reflect the same way in the individual equities…my feeling is that the markets are recognizing the more price supportive dynamics in the NG sector and are inclined to accumulate shares now. $4.32 which is probably a worst case scenario in the short run, is still miles from sub $3 NG we saw last year…
Oil equities came out like a raging bull and continued with the move through about 3pm when the buying pressure seemed to subside. Not sure if there were comments made by a major outfit, but they sure came out Monday morning with an appetite for oil stocks.
February 24th, 2014 at 9:08 pmAREX on the tape with a modest 4Q Beat on the Revenue and EBITDA lines on pre-announced volumes (announced 11 days back) as slightly above what the Street was looking for.
Operating cost control was strong
Pretty light on details in the operating update.
February 24th, 2014 at 9:09 pmre: 161
bought that one in late December for a January effect play and held on for the Permian value….sorry to say that i chose it over FANG which ran from my $45 mental buy point to $68 today (wow)….hindsight is 20/20
February 24th, 2014 at 9:16 pmnew 52 week high in CLR today…amazing how quickly oil stocks recovered from the December lows…both EOG and PXD had very nice moves too, so the leaders are doing their part. Certainly a positive tone in most of our names.
February 24th, 2014 at 9:22 pmEOG split 2/1
February 24th, 2014 at 9:42 pmre:162…I bought and flipped them both.worst sale was PVA last year…got angry they wouldn't own up to being technically inferior to EOG….my temper rarely serves me well
February 24th, 2014 at 9:44 pmre 164 – yep, good quarter, see 146 above
We got the long awaited 3rd increase to Eagle Ford average EURs and total play potential. Downspacing success allowed them to add 1,600 net locations, now at 6,000 net locations which sounds like a lot until you note the 26 rig, 520 net well program for 2014.
February 24th, 2014 at 9:45 pmre 165 – don't trade angry.
February 24th, 2014 at 9:45 pmPVA some of your best work…I am loaded now and XOP/exploration/producers very strong…thankful…need to flip the page
February 24th, 2014 at 10:05 pmre 168 – we ease in and out over multi year periods of time. Makes it easy to sleep at night should the opportunity for sleep arise.
February 24th, 2014 at 10:06 pmEOG continues to just crush it, from Gonzales in the northeast EFS to Atascosa in the southwest, average IP last year was 2,077 Bopd (that's oil only). Biggest of the big wells are generally in Gonzales, close proximity to the rising IPs and 30 day rates of PVA, in fact, PVA is basically sandwiched in between EOG and what DVN just bought. Cat. Bird. Seat. So unloved a year ago it makes one wince.
February 24th, 2014 at 10:10 pmre: 158…NOG loved that set of weekly divergences on NOG that occurred I believe in Oct. That is rare and sometimes leads to powerful recovery type moves…I see no reason it won't here…
February 24th, 2014 at 10:10 pmre 171 – quarter pre announced there for volumes so we will be on the NOG replay as SWN should be more interesting from a potential catalyst well type standpoint. But we are doing an update piece on NOG for SA in the next few weeks. Too cheap and going FCF in 2015 and their EBITDA margins match the best names in the play … their barrels are non-operated to be sure but we're starting to see more non-operated acreage get good pricing … if they don't go up as they approach free cash flow land (we'd expect them to start discounting that move over the back half of 2014) then we don't see them sticking around as their own entity.
February 24th, 2014 at 10:15 pmthanks 157
February 24th, 2014 at 10:31 pmre 173 – no problem. Switching back to WFT out of pure fascination with the abomination, did management get swapped out completely there and I missed it and how much of the company has to be sold to get to that net cash build in the next couple of years.
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