Wrap – Week Ended 02/21/14



Busy past week as E&P earnings season accelerated. Notes are in the daily posts and will be summarized in The Week That Was section of the Monday post.   The calendar for next week will be up over the weekend on the calendar tab and it's going to be a whirlwind with 14 owned names reporting 4Q13 results and another 8 to 10 names that we care about reporting as well so buckle up. Good week last week for the ZLT's as noted below and we'll do some rebalancing trades over the next three weeks to bring some of the portfolios back into line. 

If your view of the right side of a table or chart is ever cut off on your screen try: a) clicking on the chart to bring it up in its own window, b) adjusting your browser zoom % settings, or c) using the Print Friendly button at the top of the post to generate a PDF of the post. 

Have a great weekend. 

wrap 022114


31 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 02/21/14”

  1. 1
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z – CVX's comment about the Permian at the CS Vail Conf. They don't believe the Permian is fully delineated and intend to launch a bigger program if we like what they see. Would you call the Permian pretty well proven? You think CVX is just being cautious and usually does things with a 10 year time horizon or just being coy so they can accumulate property before others think they want to be all in? You have 4-5 names in the Permian that you would call the easy to own names? Thanks.    

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    re 1 – thanks Tom, will address in the Monday post. 

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    Next week's 4Q13 names we care about report dates and call times are up on the Calendar tab:


  4. 4
    zman Says:

    Headlines that make me laugh:


    Since we were buying in the $4's

  5. 5
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Barrons another knock piece against MLP's but specifically KMP. I do not like those with IDR's that put funds into GP's pockets. LNCO and others don't have that. 

  6. 6
    Zorgnak Says:

    Natural Gas Producers  Cumulative volume in bottom panel





  7. 7
    Zorgnak Says:

    Oil Producer Index





  8. 8
    Zorgnak Says:

    Bakken Index





  9. 9
    Zorgnak Says:

    Permian Index





  10. 10
    Zorgnak Says:

    Refiner Index





  11. 11
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P 500  Breadth  


  12. 12
    zman Says:

    Zorg – great stuff. 

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    Tomorrow's post open to public.  Please feel free to email it, tweet it, bookface it, etc. Thanks. 

  14. 14
    tomdavis12 Says:

    SDRL will try to summarize the comments from MS of last week. Will go over the debt and why I am taking the other side of the bankruptcy and dividend cut discussion. ESV's numbers out Wed evening last week. Stock up Thurs & Fri. 

  15. 15
    nrgyman Says:

    Zorg, thnaks for the custom charts.  Very helpful.  On the Permian Index Weekly chart it looks like the Refiners chart is presented. 

    Thanks again for posting these.

  16. 16
    Baylor Says:



    as I ponder the macro economy more and more regularly I can't help but worry abt how this absurd amount of debt taken on by the past two administrations and other global debt issues will eventually affect us

  17. 17
    Baylor Says:

    Can this go on forever?  Has it already?  Are there obvious things to do to prepare one's portfolio?  What would be the impact to oil and gas companies?

  18. 18
    Zorgnak Says:

    #15..Re Permian Weekly  thanks for catching that…this should be the correct chart 


  19. 19
    Zorgnak Says:

    Solar Index





  20. 20
    Zorgnak Says:

    #12 Thanks

    #15 You are welcome. I may not post them daily but let me know when a refresh might be helpful and I'll put them up…

  21. 21
    Baylor Says:

    Thanks for all you do zorg

  22. 22
    RMD Says:

    Barrons has an article about 'bonus depreciation' which lets co. take 50% of an items depreciation in 1st year(page M5) which expired at end of '13. Energy co.s especially exposed. ISI group's David Zion ests the drop in cash flow at CHK of 49%, PXD at 40%, RRC at 38%, and QEP at 37% if the bonus is not extended.

  23. 23
    zman Says:

    re 22 – I'd like to see his math, that sounds way over stated.  There has not been a big run up in DD&A rates from the bonus deprecition since 2010 when I think it was put in place and and there were caps on how much you could deduct. There's also a bill written  to reintestate. It would also hit big equipment makes like Deere and CAT.  I'm sure becauses it's in Barron's and WSJ this weekend that it will be a question on the first big name calls (think EOG on Tuesday) but again, would like to see his math in light of the limitations that were included with the bonus depreciation rules.    

  24. 24
    Zorgnak Says:

    #21 sure…hope it helps

  25. 25
    crysball Says:

    Z,  re PVA…………given  NG  prices  will  PVA  see  a  big  writeup   in  the    mark to market  NG   well RESERVES   ………………which previous had been written  down?

    Perhaps  more  important,  will this help  STREET   valuation going forward?


    ZORG,  you do great work,  thanks   for all  your  efforts.




  26. 26
    zman Says:

    re 25 – were the rally sustainable they would see some reserves come back on the 2014 reserve report but its not the focus and they are working to monetize much of what would get helped by higher prices this year. 

  27. 27
    brodway Says:

    Nat gas trading near 6 1/2 ..that's a double from last year….who would have thunk…don't think the supply/demand profile is reflected in a good number of gassy names…we may have to get into the summer months before reality starts to sink in.

  28. 28
    Bill Potter Says:

    Z thanks for posting the earnings calendar.  That is really helpful. However, I'm stumped on what the X.x means.  I'll admit I'm doing my share to help wine consumption in Napa as I'm on my second glass but is it the wine or did you miss something?

    Zorg, those charts are a great help.


  29. 29
    zman Says:

    re 28 –  PE. EOG at $178 is trading at 19.5x 2014 EPS.  Not that we care about EPS but some do so I post that instead of blank space next to the call time. 

  30. 30
    Bill Potter Says:

    Got it.  Thanks Z.

  31. 31
    mouse click the up coming post Says:

    mouse click the up coming post

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