08
Feb
Wrap – Week Ended 2/7/14
We were basically unchanged last week despite some volatility around a number of key ecodata releases. Comments will be included in The Week That Was section of the Monday post. Subscriber questions on the Wrap will be addressed in the Stuff section of the Monday post. Have a great weekend.
Site maintenance for the next few minutes.
February 8th, 2014 at 9:40 pmtest
February 8th, 2014 at 9:55 pmtest2
February 8th, 2014 at 10:01 pmA blast from the past post:
VTZ discusses oil sands:
http://zmansenergybrain.com/2008/12/12/expert-guest-post-alberta-oil-sands-101-don%E2%80%99t-call-it-tar-sands-please-it%E2%80%99s-annoying/
February 8th, 2014 at 10:05 pmThe search function on the site has been replaced with a relevance engine. The new search takes an indexed view of the site in an attempt to provide posts and comments that are more relevant. Searched terms are then highlighted in the comments and posts.
February 8th, 2014 at 10:27 pmHave fun in the snow Zman…..still cold here in the Northeast…14 degrees this morning while driving to baseball practice….yes can you imagine baseball season is less than 8 weeks away…forecast calls for sub freezing temps most of the week…has to be the coldest winter i can remember.
February 9th, 2014 at 9:51 amWeely Oil Producer Chart
At the confluence of the 200 MA, Volume Base, Composite Low Volume Node and previous high volume breakout. Demand volume flattening out with price.
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/09/oil_producer_composite_index_cumulative_volume_weekly
February 9th, 2014 at 11:44 amBakken Index Weekly
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/09/bakken_index_weekly
Permian Index Weekly
Highest weekly demand volume since the October swoon…
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/09/permian_index_weekly
February 9th, 2014 at 11:54 amWhat is downside risk to putting 10% of net worth in LINE for the 9+% yield?
February 9th, 2014 at 12:00 pmNat Gas Producer Weekly
Flagging just below the long term volume base top since October.
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/09/nat_gas_producer_composite_indexweekly
Long Term……….
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/09/nat_gas_producers_long_term
February 9th, 2014 at 12:08 pmWhat do you mean by flagging zorg?
February 9th, 2014 at 12:13 pmEXXI – Z I do not own right now but did listen to the CC. I was looking to help a few who still own. I was looking at two possible courses. This market wants growth and EXXI is not growth now. They have made purchases of companies for $20/bl on the shelf. From a value standpoint I am thinking they should not get below $17 – $18 before value investors take serious interest. So a patient long term player could just stay the course hoping for some significant discoveries this summer. The other course would be to switch to some of the faster shale basin growers. With many having corrected in the last few months, may have better 6 – 9 month performance. The risks I have noticed with EXXI are: 1. Drilling track record not as predictable as most shale oil basins. 2. Risks from Hurricanes much like the winters in the Bakken (not very predictable), 3. A Macondo type event. I am only looking for your take on the logic not what to buy. Thanks.
February 9th, 2014 at 12:41 pmThanks for the charts Zorg
Thanks for the question Tom, will address in Monday post.
February 9th, 2014 at 12:53 pm#11 Re Flag or Pennant… Considered to be bullish continuation setup….Watch for a break above the high of the formation that happens with above average volume for most consistant success
chart-patterns.netfirms.com/bullflag.htm
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/flag.asp
February 9th, 2014 at 1:33 pmre: 14
and there i thought you were talking baseball pennant. 🙂
February 9th, 2014 at 2:45 pmRe 14 thanks zorg
February 9th, 2014 at 3:42 pmre: 10
Zorg..that long term chart is indicating a new trend in play….i think you are on to something
February 9th, 2014 at 6:00 pmanyone have an explanation why CHK is down over 10% on higher gas prices? its been some time since McClendon has moved on but haven't heard much talk about the companys prospects.
February 9th, 2014 at 6:02 pmre 18 – was asked the other day, response here:
http://zmansenergybrain.com/2014/01/24/friday-morning-oil-and-natural-gas-inventory-review-plus-athl-eox-rice-and-more/#comment-242622
February 9th, 2014 at 6:34 pmTripping into triple digits overnight:
http://www.barchart.com/detailedquote/futures/CLH4
February 9th, 2014 at 8:40 pmre: 19
missed that response…thanks for the link…i guess being heavy in liquids is not the worst thing in an environment where the drawdowns have been considerable of late and pricing should help them…the fact that their capex is still a challenge they have not fully addressed is certainly troublesome from the perspective of the street probably passing on them for now which could also translate into the lower stock price. its possible that some have left the name for other options in the gas space, another reason for the recent decline. since you seem to have the finger on the pulse, i will wait for further info. in the name from you going forward. the one thing that is clear, however is that the street hates poor execution and will demolish equities in companies that miss the mark or over promise and under deliver.
February 9th, 2014 at 8:47 pmre: 20
just mind boggling that we went from 91 crude to 100 crude and many great oil stocks are just lingering at support levels. scratching my head….but being patient as i'm more and more of a believer that markets are really not as efficient as we want to believe.
February 9th, 2014 at 8:49 pmand gas is down 10 cents dow 4.68…thats about a buck from the recent high…have to believe some technical retracement is in the works…and i'm still looking at Zorg's chart in 10 and saying to myself why not own more gas?
February 9th, 2014 at 8:51 pmNatgas futures seem to follow the weather predictions pretty closely. After this week's expected colder than normal temps a warm-up is now forecasted, with above normal temps over most of the US the following week or so. The colder temps have already been factored into natgas prices, now with the warm-up coming a price retreat is happening. I expect natgas to rally again if the predictors forecast temps to turn cold once more after this coming warm-up. This forecast goes through Feb 23:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif
February 9th, 2014 at 9:43 pmre 24 – right but more important to our names is what the Strip is doing. At the end of the day, weather only is going to matter so much, and generally just to traders. The trough will be low enough to be quite supportive of prices at better levels than we or the Street would have expected through the first shoulder season and into Summer but nothing about storage now or where it looks to be going (1,100 to 1,200 Bcf in the next 7 weeks or so) spells $5 plus being sustainalbe at this time, not in light of produciton, imports and demand (see slideshow in last Tuesday's post).
February 9th, 2014 at 9:46 pm9 the question is not should u put 9% of your investment with line but rather with any stock. In general the answer would be no. Why not spread it between line and
say memp and perhaps a bit in bbep? That ,said I have well over 10% of my investment in one company but that is because the company has been a strong proformer. Moreover there is more to come. Good luck whatever you do.
February 9th, 2014 at 9:53 pmut=83878c91171338902e0fe0fb97a8c47a http://www.garagecommerce.com/businesses/10740014/title-loans-express/title-loans/ca/salinas/93901 http://www.contractspot.com/contractors/company-info.php?PHPSESSID=8qqn5jv7lr0qvt7pb08poioa60 http://www.bizlistonl…
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August 7th, 2015 at 4:00 am