Wrap – Week Ended 01/17/14

Mixed bag of a week for the broad markets and another week of sideways to slightly down trading in the group with oily and gassy names continuing to trade in somewhat divergent fashion.  News flow in the group picked up as expected and guidance items were largely in line to slightly better than expected. New items are highlighted in red on the Near Term Catalyst section of the Catalyst tab at upper left on the site.  Note the record withdrawal and spike back up in natural gas prices and the sudden collapse of the long held net short position (not gone but severely dented at this point as shorts fear cold weather and a trough in April below 1,500 Bcf. 

The blotter is updated. 

Have a great long weekend. 

wrap 011714


12 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 01/17/14”

  1. 1
    crysball Says:


    Solar [sunspot]  Activivity & Climate  Effects……………….the Maunder Mininmum. :A fascinating  article    indicating    we  are  entering  a  perioud  of  long & cold winters …………….the    puch  line  is  toward  the  end  of  the   article…………….fascinatinating .



  2. 2
    zman Says:

    re 1 – thanks, saw another take yesterday, saying it was the most rapid decline in solar activity on record despite the sun being at the 11 year solar maximum and all the sun scientists are perplexed but nutshell was less UV changes pattern of jetstream creating a blocking effect that particular affects Europe's weather, much colder there, iced of Thames, etc.   Article I saw was less certain on rest of world impacts though. 

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    Last week's Seeking Alpha REXX piece, done before they announced better than mid 4Q13 volumes and better than Street 2014 volume guidance. 


  4. 4
    zman Says:

    NG holding up OK in the face of last week's mildness and early mildness this week. 

    • Last week's weather: Gas weighted HDDs came in at a paltry 182 last week, vs 227 normal for the week and 247 in the prior week that generated last Thursday's record 287 Bcf withdrawal, 


    Gas consuming population weighted heating degree days forecast to jump back up this week to 239 vs 224 normal. 

    • This week's forecast: HDDs to jump back up to 239 vs 224 normal for the week. 


  5. 5
    Bill Potter Says:

    Z, my understanding was that the U.S. was not allowed to export gasoline. And, people like Harold Hamm are asking congress to allow us to do so.  Yet, this article says we do – http://www.eia.gov/oog/info/twip/twip.asp

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    re 5 – no, the U.S. exports gasoline every week. Distillates and other products as well. It's crude oil the U.S. is not allowed to export except in limited fashion to Canada. 

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    PXD on the tape detailing freeze ups that are now returning to normal … 5,000 boepd offline in the quarter due to freeze ups, trucking curtailments, and power outages in the Permian, no lasting impact expected. Also had freezeups in the Eagle Ford and the Barnett

  8. 8
    Bill Potter Says:

    so as long as it's any type of refined product we can export?  Why are we worried about exporting crude oil if we can refine it and export it?

  9. 9
    Dedwards Says:

    Z, was doing some reading on AR just now.  I need a sanity check.  I have their EV in the $16.5B ballpark ($1.5 net debt + $15B equity).  They have 450,000 net acres.  So this is $36k/acre? Am I missing something?

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    re 8 – limited capacity to refine more. The U.S. runs in the 85% to 94% capacity range commonly, using a mix of crudes.  There's a limited amount of additional light barrels that can be processed. We probably bump up against the wall of the light barrels that can be handled in 2015. 

    re 9 – I would not look at it on a $/acre basis. You've got stacked pays over much of that making a $/acre calculation too simplistic. On TEV it's going to rapidly cheapen as it will on reserves where it's already not overly priced and it's getting quite a bit oilier this year. 

  11. 11
    sc4 Says:

    any more color on rice.? they IPO this week.tia

  12. 12
    zman Says:

    The Tuesday post is up; RICE will get a final update prior to its near week's end IPO. 

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