Wrap – Week Ended 12/20/13

Most comments will be in the Week That Was section of the Monday post. However, please note the divided nature of speculators regarding the outlook for natural gas at present. A second record withdrawal of the season despite near record production has the net short positive moving lower as longs add to positions faster than their short counterparts who are far from giving up on the legacy short position. Our sense is that the recent upswing in longs is for more of a short term trade as is the recent build in shorts (they can't believe a move up has legs and for the most part neither do we but we do see the range for the coming year as superior to this one). Please see last Monday's post for the Natural Gas Production, Imports and Demand slide shows here in a free post for nonsubscribers and the Friday post for the latest natural gas storage slide show along with our thoughts on prices. 

We make a great stocking stuffer for those needing one more last unique gift to give. Contact us at zman@zmansenergybrain.com to inquire.

The full and final Bakken Players update of the year will be out on Tuesday.

Have a great weekend. 

wrap 122013



19 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 12/20/13”

  1. 1
    milepost_43 Says:

    FAN …. possibly add to AE table….thanks…

    FAN holdings https://www.ftportfolios.com/retail/etf/ETFholdings.aspx?Ticker=FAN

  2. 2
    milepost_43 Says:

    MEX Pres signs oil privatization law………. —


    Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto signed into law a sweeping reform that will allow private companies to drill for oil and gas, and end a seven-decade-long monopoly held by the state oil company.

    Congress still must draft, within three months, enabling legislation that will specify how the government awards contracts and how the new profit is managed

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    re 1 – thanks, will take a look at that. 


  4. 4
    zman Says:

    The Blotter is updated


  5. 5
    irongate Says:

    John Kemp: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/18/usa-oil-exports-idUSL6N0JX2U920131218?feedType=RSS&feedName=everything&virtualBrandChannel=11563

    US lifting Export ban??   WOW

  6. 6
    Baylor Says:

    Would lifting the ban be something we're for?  With gas at $3 per gallon you'd think joe six pack would be mighty unhappy with the amount of his paycheck going to fill his tank while our oil is shipped around the planet.

  7. 7
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 6:  If you are a domestic E&P, or an owner of domestic E&P names, you want the ban lifted.  If you are a refiner, you don't.  Refiners have been the beneficiaries of the discounted WTI prices (compared to Brent) at the expense of the producers.  Removing the ban wil change that equation for the benefit of the producers (WTI would move toward parity with Brent).  Consumers should not see much change at the pump because refined products trade freely on the world markets and are priced off global crude prices (Brent).  Refiner's excess profits will shift to the producers.  The selling of this to the public, on the other hand, is likely to be hampered by all of the false rhetoric typically heard whenever energy is discussed.



  8. 8
    nrgyman Says:

    Private equity firms continue to raise funds to invest in the energy sector:



  9. 9
    sea bull Says:

    Z – Any thoughts on these guys? They recently announced a planned IPO.  Looks like they are in the hot areas with lots of land.




  10. 10
    zman Says:

    re 8 – risk reward still good 

    re 9 – thanks, will have a look. 

  11. 11
    Zorgnak Says:

    Still on the road til next Friday but here's a few charts that looked intertesting/actionable to me..

    S&P Futures..Range expansion.
    XOP Held key support. Positive demand volume shift.

  12. 12
    Zorgnak Says:

    REXX  Break of key resistance on strong demand volume. 
    BCEI  Key support held. Positive demand volume shift.

  13. 13
    Zorgnak Says:

    RRC & SWN Break of long bases = long rides, if/when.
    RRC http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/12/22/stock_composite_131222090609
    SWN  http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/12/22/stock_composite_131222090719
    WPX  Looking for a breakout of long term volume base above 20.40

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    Thansk for the levels Zorg, have a good vacation. 

  15. 15
    Justin Says:

    Am I reading the print on TAT correct? Anyone hear anything?

  16. 16
    elduque Says:

    re TAT- institution bt. 1.5MM shares at the close on Friday thru ML.

    Also, operations update sometime around Jan 6th

    Also worth taking the time to listen to: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kmBxO-HgZaE. Ian sounded very positive, in talking about both Selmo and Thrace Basin.

  17. 17
    irongate Says:

    re 7.. nrgyman i think you are exactly right.  i wouldn't hold my breath for the export ban being lifted though.  lotsa lobbying will go on between now and then.  However a GOP sweep of both sides of congress would increase this liklihood though.  and thanks to the Obamacare disaster i'd bet better than 50:50 that the GOP sweeps

  18. 18
    zman Says:

    Jan NG fut up a dime early evening on the return of cold


  19. 19
    crysball Says:


    From  Algae to  Crude Oil   in  just  24   Hours

    The  article  has  no  mention  of  the  the   mass balance equation,   or  thermal  balance  equation,   but  the  important  point  is  that  they  collapsed  the  geologic time constant  to    go from  algae  to  crude  oilto just  24 hours:


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