Wrap – Week Ended 12/13/13



Wrap comments will be included in the Monday post. Got the wrap out late this weekend due to schedule conflicts with holiday stuff. If you have questions please put them in the comments section and know that they will be addressed in the Monday post. We'll have the natural gas supply and demand slide shows in the Monday post as well. Have a good rest of the weekend. 

wrap 121313

14 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 12/13/13”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    Tune in early tomorrow, big slide show. Free post, tell your friends. 

  2. 2
    apbd Says:

    Hi Z:

    Saturday's WSJ has a small article entitled: "McClendon Venture to Go Public.

    Aubrey has files for up to $ 2 Billion, 100 million units at $20.00.

    Will you follow this?  Do we trust him?


  3. 3
    zman Says:

    re 2  – thanks APBD, will put in the mailbag section of the Monday post. 

  4. 4
    Paul in Kansas City Says:

    Z; any good ideas for propylene supply and price info?? I am experimenting with various trade publications (none free or cheap) and I noticed on EIA website propylene is pooled with propane data onthe supply side.  The inspiration for this is the mlp Petrologistics LP  (PDH); The LP asset is a propane to propylene conversion facility; Propane goes in; propylene goes out; at least a simple business model.  and with a little more effort understanding capex requirements and being able to track cash margins should make this one of this stocks that can be owned/traded on a discounted cash flow basis.  So easy; right??  Bottomline for me; just making sure I can model distributable cash flow at different margin levels should be at least produce a price where on an infomred basis someone can take a swing as a long term owner of the shares.  As always appreciate your experitse and discussions; By the way; The Frackers by Greg Zuckerman provides an easy to read story of several key figures and companies in different shale plays. Novices to these names should read just for basic familiarity.

  5. 5
    Paul in Kansas City Says:

    Ny the NOG presentation very helpful.  Thanks

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    re 4 – unfortunately no but have not looked in awhile, will snoop about. Seems like such a plant now should be a license to steal given propane supply, inventories, and despite recent move in prices. Thanks for the headsup. 

  7. 7
    Paul in Kansas City Says:

    It would seem like it; but then the chart tells me I am clueless on some particulars.

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    re 7 – sort of looks inverted to propane price chart in the post the other day, no?

  9. 9
    Paul in Kansas City Says:

    PDH; strikes me as something like my rental house; except the rent changes daily.  Capex should be easy to model barring the uncertainties of outlier events.  I f I find something useful I will post; hoping someone smarter and more experienced has a quick answer to share.  Just think if we see real expansion of production in South Texas and Louisiana of more complex derivatives?  This should work.

  10. 10
    Paul in Kansas City Says:

    Re 8- agree

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    Now planning to have a look, thanks. 

  12. 12
    Dedwards Says:

    Aubrey's compensation scheme in his new vehicle is suspect to say the least

    The S-1 is a very interesting read

  13. 13
    Paul in Kansas City Says:

    Re 11; thanks for your brainpower add Z

  14. 14
    RB Says:

    HK out with 950M capital spending reduction,400M add on note offering and plans on further diverstitures of non-core assets in amt. of 300-400M…will be interesting to see how this is received….

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