Wrap – Week Ended 7/26/13 (In Progress)

Most comments will be in the Monday post but we'll highlight a couple of items from the table below later today. 

wrap 072613

29 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 7/26/13 (In Progress)”

  1. 1
    Zorgnak Says:

    Solar Stocks

     High tight price setup. Demand volume positive/flat. Noticed solar relative strength on Friday.


    Solar shorts covering.


  2. 2
    Zorgnak Says:


    Relative strength on Friday's down strong down move. Demand volume positive divergences long and short term.


  3. 3
    Zorgnak Says:

    Nat Gas Producers

    Consolidation after Thursdays break out day. Long term demand volume uptrend.


  4. 4
    Zorgnak Says:


    Aggregate long term demand volume uptrend intact. Price consolidation.



    Minor correction so far with long term demand volume up trend intact.


  5. 5
    Zorgnak Says:

    Coal Producers

    Strong relative strength on a down day. Demand volume uptrend. Supply and long term price downtrend overhead.


  6. 6
    Zorgnak Says:


    High negative volume day. Demand volume weak. Minor CLVN support at 44.78



  7. 7
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Long Term (Weekly Chart)

    Demand volume uptrend intact and confiming latest upside break.


    Short Term (Daily Chart)

    Volume Profile  Shows minor correction closing above the volume pivot at 1677.75. Mkt continues to build acceptance above previous lower range.


    Demand volume flat/positive.



  8. 8
    crysball Says:

    George Mitchell

    The states  of  North Dakota, Pennsyylvania,  and Texas   in particular,  our  Nation,  and  the  world  in general  owe    receogmition  to  Goeorge Mitchell.   His unrelenting   persistent  conviction  in  finding a way  to  realize  the  potential  of   shale gas & oil   have altered  the landscape  of the energy  business  worldwide.  He succeeded  where  many  of  the largest  and  most  advanced  companies  failed.  By  realizing  the  potential  of horizontal drilling  and  and hydraulic fracturing   in  shale   he  has    enabled the  USA  to  dramatically reduce our dependence  upon  foreign  NG  and oil……….. while   simultaneously  to  become    the  low  cost  producer  of NG.

    When  you think  about  the  amount of capital  investment, employment ,  and economic activity [direct and inderect]  resulting  from  his   work  it  is  just staggering.  We are  the world  leader  in a technolgoy  which will  shape  energy markets  for  years  to come.

    And  he  used    his  fortune he earned  from this GOOD WORK     to  GIVE BACK  to  others.

    What  an exmple  of the human spirit.

    GOD  BLESS  Geroge Mitchell.




  9. 9
    gdr Says:

    Z—I'd appreciate your thoughts on WLL, given positive tone of recent quarterly and the three upgrades you cites on the Friday post.

  10. 10
    Zorgnak Says:

    SLCA  Breakout trade setup above 24.10.   21% short. 


     CRR was 46% short. Up 34% in July

  11. 11
    thumper Says:

    using more natural gas……


  12. 12
    zman Says:

    re 9 – no problem, will put a section on it in the Monday post. 

  13. 13
    Zorgnak Says:

    Some weekly charts of note 

    CHK  52 week high.10%short. Top of long term volume base.






  14. 14
    Zorgnak Says:

    More weekly breakout setups..



    XCO 9% Short


    XOM  Held previous week's breakout


  15. 15
    Zorgnak Says:



    CRK 15% short


    GPOR 12 % short


  16. 16
    Zorgnak Says:


    "NO major financial firm has survived a criminal indictment"



  17. 17
    Zorgnak Says:

    GS Commodity Index…failed again at downtrend line


  18. 18
    Zorgnak Says:

    Crude Oil Futures   Long Term  

    Price at top of long term volume range. Note low volume area below the CHVN at 105 and the Major CHVN/acceptance area at 96. In each case since 2008 the trip from upper  105 to 96 has been fast with overshoot to the downside. 


  19. 19
    Zorgnak Says:

    Nat Gas Long Term

    Trading below major long term acceptance at 3.74


  20. 20
    nrgyman Says:

    Thanks for the chart updates, Zorg.  Commodities, WTI and natgas all look bearish to me on a short-term basis, with WTI most vulnerable and natgas closest to a bounce.  Q2 GDP will be out this week and some are predicting as low as a negative read, which will not be helpful to these commodities.  Perhaps that will be the stimulus to move these lower and provide later setups for longer-term positions.  

  21. 21
    Zorgnak Says:

    #20 That's pretty much the way I see it in the commodity charts. Nat Gas stocks seem to be talking to us here….

    Here's one more for the pile. The $USD weekly showing the dollar coming back fast to long term acceptance at 80.62. I don't see much in the way of correlation with the dollar over the last 180 days(SLV is one). On the other hand the Yen carry trade(see chart below) is still a big factor along with POMO.  FED announces Augusts schedule next week and I'll be curious to see if there's any change to the full throttle buying without a day of selling that we've seen for the past several months. 


    YEN S&P correlation


  22. 22
    brodway Says:

    similar setup for REXX

  23. 23
    gdr Says:

    Z—-what are you doing to protect your positions from a downdraft in the shares  in the various portfolios if brent/wti drop sub-100? I know you expect a pendulum swing in share prices that may exaggerate to the negative. Are you 100% long in names?

  24. 24
    zman Says:

    re 23 – will reply in Monday post. 

  25. 25
    brodway Says:

    re: 22

    good question. i think the subject was touched on last week, but a more detailed response is welcome.

  26. 26
    Zorgnak Says:

    The Great Rotation


  27. 27
    brodway Says:


    there seems not only to be a rotation from bonds to equity, but also a rotation within the equity market. more recently it seems there has been a move from staples to cyclicals.

  28. 28
    brodway Says:

    maybe said that hastily. they are actually buying everything. just realized JNJ hitting new all tme highs

  29. 29
    skimo Says:

    merger Monday


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