Friday Post – Part II (Saturday through Wednesday post)

Vacation Watch: We'll be somewhat out of pocket Monday through sometime Wednesday. So here's the Wrap and The Week That Was sections you normally see over the weekend and in the Monday post. We'll be on the HAL, BTU and COG calls while on the road and will check in regularly while out. Thanks and Best, Z. If you have questions we can be reached here or as always at zman@zmansenergybrain.com

The Wrap

wrap 071913

The Week That Was

weekly wrap 071913

2Q13 Energy Earnings Calendar - Week 2

2Q13 EW 2

270 Responses to “Friday Post – Part II (Saturday through Wednesday post)”

  1. 1
    Zorgnak Says:

     Post-crisis COT Crude Oil Futs….


  2. 2
    Paul in Kansas City Says:

    I apologize if this has been answered before; but your 2013 and 2014 estimates are averages of all analysts using bloomberg as source?  Thanks and have a great weekend

  3. 3
    Zorgnak Says:

    PWE  Breakout on strong volume


    TPLM Breakout Continued strong volume


    HAL Breakout Strong volume



  4. 4
    Zorgnak Says:

    NOV Breakout near


    SJT & HGT volume spikes


  5. 5
    Zorgnak Says:

    Margin Debt


  6. 6
    nrgyman Says:

    DOE study preliminary results support safety of fraccing:



  7. 7
    crysball Says:

    SABIC………..world's largest   Petrochemical  maker   studying  US  Nat Gas  Petrochmical  opportunites


    Saudi's  smell  opportunity…………….good for Nat Gas.

  8. 8
    crysball Says:


    One of the  benefits  of  subscribing  are   your   comments  on  the interelationships  of  news   from  a  single  compay and  how this  can  affect  others  in  a subsctor [like oil services]   or  adjacent  players    in  a  given  area [like the Wattenguerg].    

    Am   a long term  player,  however, have  find  interrelationship  comments   (and those of other subscribers) particularly benefieicial  going  into   earnings ……….  especially  when  a rising  tide  floats  more  boats.

    Wish  there  was  some  quantitative  measures of  sector  rotation  and  its  correlation  to WTI  or  NG   you  could add  to  the charts.



  9. 9
    Zorgnak Says:

    XLE  Large Cap Energy Stocks …Breaking out with intermediate (mid panel) and short term (lower panel) demand volume confirming.


    OIH stocks breaking higher on increased intermediate and short term.demand volume 


    E&P Stocks  Demand volume strong intermediate and short term


  10. 10
    Zorgnak Says:

    Nat Gas stocks  strong interemediate and short term demand volume.  


    Coal stocks   Demand volume still positive but softening short term at resistance.


    Refiners Sideways above support with flat demand volume.


  11. 11
    Zorgnak Says:

    Solar  Shallow pullback within strong uptrend at recent highs. Intermediate and short term demand volume positive.


  12. 12
    crysball Says:

    PEMEX  Crude  Pipeline  Explosion  injures 7   near  Mexico  City:


  13. 13
    Zorgnak Says:

    WFT  Breaks resistance and long term volume base at 14.57


  14. 14
    Zorgnak Says:

    #9  Sector rotation/correlation…Which sectors did you have in mind?

  15. 15
    thumper Says:


  16. 16
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 15:  Thanks for the post.  I've read that this REX reversal would eventually happen, but not this quickly.  This should help Utica/Marcellus producers, but it may hurt realizations for Rockies natgas producers.   UPL and WPX are both heavily invested in the Rockies.  My understanding is that the eastbound volumes have been dropping on the REX due to the emergence of the Marcellus, so this news might already be priced into those names.  But if the low-cost Utica/Marcellus producers start pumping large natgas volumes west, it won't likely help those names.

    Antero Resources seems like an interesting company, though apparently they are still private.  They have filed for a public offering and will apparently trade on the NYSE under the symbol AR.  I've read they hit on some big wells in the Utica and have a good leasehold position there (the article says 100,000 net acres in southern Ohio)–likely in the Utica sweetspot zone.  They might be interesting when they finally come to market.  Here is their public offering announcement:



  17. 17
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 16:  Follow up on Antero Resources.  This article says they have 317,000 acres in the Marcellus in addition to the Utica leasehold.  This statement from the article caught my attention:

    "Antero reported an operating income of $444 million on total revenue of $735.7 million in 2012.  Reuters reported last month that Antero was preparing for an IPO that could value it at as much as $10 billion."


  18. 18
    zman Says:

    HAL 2Q13 Quick Notes

    $0.73 vs $0.72 expected

    Revenue of $7.317 (record) vs $7.26 B expected


  19. 19
    zman Says:

    More HAL

    strong international 

    see eastern hemisphere continuing to improve in 2H13, with margins in the upper teens … Should make people happy at that level

    Latin America – flat revenue, down operating income like everyone else on the back of a weak Mexico 

    NAM – revenue up 3% and markings ticked up 1.2% to 15.7% and they see them moving up …. Sould also be welcomed by Street 

  20. 20
    zman Says:

    HAL repurchased $1B in 2q13. Re authorized for $5 B program. They think its too cheap too. We continue to hold a starter position in the ZLT. Cc at 9 am EST

  21. 21
    zman Says:

    Re 8, thanks and will look into it

  22. 22
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    GDP on the tape with the resutls from their Smith well (wow).  Also, buying 185,000 acres (producing properties) in their TMS play for $27mm (less than $250/acre net) and upping borrowing base by $18mm at closing of purchase (68% debt financing = nice support by the banks).

    Oh… and did I mention that Smith well.  IP'd at 1,045 BOE on a 6 day test.  That's 1,000 barrels of OIL and 255 mcf of gas from the TMS.  No info on how much the CWC are on this well… but at least we know GDP has gotten the engineering moving in the right direction.  1k bbls of OIL is a nice well.

  23. 23
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Areas of Interest  7/22 8:50 AM ES 1689.50


    Notes…. Market in range expansion mode. Little market structure in either direction. Demand volume positive in all time frames. Breadth uptrend intact. Risk sectors leading with exception of big cap tech.High RS stocks lagged last week. POMO supportive through the end of the month.  $USD Testing lower, demand volume turning negative. 800 + companies report this week.

    Thoughts …….Range expansion into new highs on very low volume. Little market structure (support or resistance) with 1670.25 as nearest volume pivot. Expecting any dip to get bought.

    Glossary   http://www.futurestrader71.com/?page_id=1280

    1670 Minor CHVN/Short term volume pivot

    1666 Minor CLVN/Support

    1655 CLVN  Minor Support

    1644.75 Minor CHVN/ Volume gaps below

    1629.50 Minor CLVN/Support

    1620.25 CHVN

    SP500 Futures


    $USD Long term


  24. 24
    Zorgnak Says:

    Crude Oil Futures (Sept)  Noted the exteme spec COT readings on Friday.


  25. 25
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Ha!  GHS's comments on GDP this morning…. they REALLY go out on a limb with their price target.  Personally, I would peg it somewhere in the $20s.  But it's not a stock that GHS has pounded the table on.  Kinda understandable with GDP's "B- management team."  But management showing the ability to do their homework and making the attempt to move up the grade curve.


    GDP-$14.53: Picks up DVN’s 185k net TMS acres & 2nd TMS well; Purchasing 185k net TMS acres for 26.7MM, or ~$145/acre. GDP's Smith IP'd at 1,045 boepd (96% oil); total cost ~$13MM. No-brainer transaction for GDP – paying for the value of existing production while picking up 185K net acres (could represent > 2,000 future well locations) in a play that it's now 2/2 on drilling wells >1000 boepd. The fact that the increase in GDP's borrowing base will cover 67.4% of the purchase price ($18MM of the $26.7MM purchase price) highlights that GDP didn't get too aggressive and push liquidity to get this deal done— Buy-rated, $16 px tgt

  26. 26
    Zorgnak Says:

    68% of Financial stocks in the S&P 500 have beaten earnings estimates this season compared with only 33% of Materials stocks.

    Josh Brown

  27. 27
    tomdavis12 Says:

    15 ideas from Barron's with good growth prospects and p/e below 10. In energy-land VLO, MPC, FCX, ESV, PSX, APA. 

  28. 28
    Zorgnak Says:

    OAS Pretty breakout setup


  29. 29
    tomdavis12 Says:

    SDRL – On Friday announced a contract for $666K/day for 180 days. Street has been shorting DO – RIG because of large older fleet. The primary reason for me being long SDRL is how they have managed their fleet. Newest & largest.  

  30. 30
    zman Says:

    HAL Notes

    Pretty much reading the press release so far. International moving as expected. NAM improving. 

    Walking through some international highlights


  31. 31
    zman Says:

    HAL notes

    See Mexico shaping up in 3q

    announcing big contract with Pemex at Chicontepec today that starts in early 2014. This was releasesd last week

    NAM 85% of crews under long term contract and 75% are working 24/7


  32. 32
    jy Says:

    Re 25 "GDP's B Mgmt team" – have worked  w/ Rob Turnham (President & COO) in the past on joint projects.  Gets an "A" in my book. Disclosure- Have no position in GDP

  33. 33
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    jy — thank you for sharing your opinion!  Just going off what the market thinks vs past engineering results.  So great to know they have the talent on the team.  I own some of this (converts and stock) and am happy to hear your opinion.

  34. 34
    zman Says:

    HAL Notes

    20% of fleet to be on frac of the future plan by ye13 and 50% by 2015. Saves on well site costs

    expect Battle Red initiative to be completed by 1q14

    think NAM improves rest of year. 

    Think NAM E&Ps reload budgets vs running dry early this year. Seems likely from our view as well


  35. 35
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    GDP — generally thinking the "B" was aimed at Gil… but do hear good things about Mr. Turnham.

  36. 36
    elduque Says:

    BDI at 1135


    Brent/WTI at .7


    TYX at 3.55


    Gold above 1300 at 1320



  37. 37
    zman Says:

    HAL Q&A

    Seeing pickup across Europe,

    seeing improving margins from activity pickup in North Sea, and off Angola

    Analyst day in November

    Question about how much can you grow with flat rig count in Nam. Basically said they are still on the leading edge as pad drilling is still really just testing started. 

    US pressure pumping. Only company that's near 100% utilization, rest of industry taking longer to get balanced than originally thought which was 1q14. 



  38. 38
    Zorgnak Says:

    Solar still perky…FSLR pulled back to minor support at 48.50…bot some..tight stops for a trade


  39. 39
    jy Says:

    Re #35 – I concur.

  40. 40
    Zorgnak Says:

    Light volume out the gate this morning…21 of 80 above average with 27 of 80 green

  41. 41
    zman Says:

    Gassy stocks pulling back with gas and milder temps. 

    HAL notes. 

    Pad sizes getting much larger. I was at a super pad on Saturday in the Fayetteville, one of SWN's, there's a shot of it on my twitter feed , and HAL is talking about even more margin improvements as the well count per pad jumps



  42. 42
    zman Says:

    HAL flat as call approaches end, strong quarter, nothing really unexpected in the guidance. Definitely hitting on all cylinders. 

  43. 43
    Zorgnak Says:

    GLOG  tryign to breakout again above 13.75


  44. 44
    zman Says:

    HAL call over, will check back in later. 

  45. 45
    RMD Says:

    RAJA raises BCEI target from 40 to 45., PXD 148 to 162, EOG 148 to 170, CLR 96 to 110.

  46. 46
    DaveH Says:

    HAL – 0.57%.   Did you see anything on the call that should make the go down?   Maybe it went up based on the SLB call Friday more than it should have?

  47. 47
    zman Says:

    Re 46

    Not really, they just didn't boost margin guidance and calling for flat 3q rig count isn't what people want to here. In my view, record quarter with continued increasing margin guidance is a good thing and they remain cheap to peers and as such we have the increase in the buyback. 

  48. 48
    Zorgnak Says:

    OII  All time high


  49. 49
    Zorgnak Says:

    Volume expanding 33/80 above average in energy stocks as they green up a bit here 35/80

  50. 50
    DaveH Says:

    RE: 47, thanks I wasn't holding any HAL so picked up a starter position.

  51. 51
    Zorgnak Says:

    WFT  Breakout setup above 14.57


  52. 52
    elduque Says:

    FCX reports tomorrow morning before market. Copper trading above 3.20 resistance.


  53. 53
    tomdavis12 Says:

    NOG – sellsiders comments views. Perceived shortfall blamed on weather. May wettest month on record. OK reasonable. Do we believe the back half of the year they will catch up so they can meet full year guidance. Prob not. OAS has guided these issues and they have a better chance of being believed because of operated model vs non-op. The recommendations out there are for EOX, TPLM & OAS not NOG. NOG will be in penalty box until they can beat guidance significantly. Their history of underperforming guidance will likely continue to hold them back until they can kick some butt with their numbers.  

  54. 54
    DaveH Says:

    RE: 43  TomDavis, do you have any thoughts on whether the fact that GLOG is a Greek company should be a significant concern to U.S. investors?

  55. 55
    zman Says:

    Re 53 nothing surprising there.  Only thing surprising was some expecting sequential growth. I hold all of those others, TPLM and OAS two of my biggest. 

  56. 56
    tomdavis12 Says:

    DaveH 54  I would love to sound smart about your question, but I am not familiar with them and reslly don't have anything value added for you. Maybe there are other others with informed opinions out there?  

  57. 57
    nrgyman Says:

    10:56 AM  Halliburton (HAL -0.5%) shares turn lower after the conference call, despite a Q2 earnings beat and authorization for a $5B share buyback, as CFO Mark McCollum says settlement talks with victims of the 2010 Gulf of Mexico oil spill have "recently slowed" and it is unclear if a deal ultimately will be reached. Earlier this year, HAL had said settlement talks with private plaintiffs were in an advanced stage.  (from Alpha)



  58. 58
    Zorgnak Says:

    Money flow into stocks


  59. 59
    tomdavis12 Says:

    55 – NOG the one thing I found confirming is the op vs non-op model is definitely perceived as more predictable. Until Reger can kick some butt I would expect that tag to stick with NOG. Unpredictable. 

  60. 60
    DaveH Says:

    Re: 56 – thanks.   Potentials of Greek problems affecting them are a mystery to me.  If Greece goes off the Euro how does that affect GLOG, etc?

  61. 61
    zman Says:

    Re 57, yeah, BP slowing things up now.  Stock was falling back away before that was mentioned. 

  62. 62
    nrgyman Says:

    EPL rebounding.

  63. 63
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    jy — do you (or anyone) know the boys at Antero Resources in Denver?  Bunch of ex-Amoco guys… so it's probably a High Class operation.  🙂

  64. 64
    Zorgnak Says:

    Refiners…Big MCP pop today…all the refiners I follow are green

  65. 65
    Zorgnak Says:

    #65 disregard last…got my groups mixed up

  66. 66
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 16, 17, 63:  Z, what is your take on Antero Resources?  Does anyone know when the IPO is likely to hit the market?  

  67. 67
    jy Says:

    RE 63- No,  and they must be!!

  68. 68
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 17:  Looks like PE firms behind Antero Resources are looking to cash in.  If the IPO comes at anywhere near the $10 billion figure stated in the article, that would be a huge IPO for an E&P firm and an enormous profit for the PE firms involved.  Not sure it would be good for investors buying the IPO.  GPOR, which has a larger footprint than Antero Resources in the best zones of the Utica, among other assets, has an EV of $4 billion.  

  69. 69
    nrgyman Says:

    Fidelity Select Energy PM on CNBC talking oil investments.  Likes US E&P names (hello Z!) as the best place to be in the energy space.  He is not a big bull on energy prices.  He is bullish due to declining cost structures.  COG, EOG, PXD are his favorite names.  Likes many others in US basins as well.

  70. 70
    choices Says:

    #60-Dave-speaking from the cheap seats, a big FWIW, I would more concerned with the mgmt itself than with the macro picture with Greece-Greek shippers do not have a glowing record of looking out for the shareholders-that is prob an overly broad cmt and maybe unfair in this case but the owner and his family own >50%.  That said, GLOG is doing well, healthy earnings outlooks, the sector looks to grow.  I have just limited but painful experience with Greek shippers.  A big grain of salt because this is coming from someone who has been pretty much decapitated and the other part of the anatomy is lost too from staying with the miners thru this tsunami-I guess I feel somewhat more ready to deal with the risks that I can see vs the risks that I cannot see i.e. wild accounting, self-dealing, etc which to me seems possible from Greek shippers.


  71. 71
    Zorgnak Says:

    COG trying for a breakout on a down NG day


  72. 72
    Zorgnak Says:



  73. 73
    zman Says:

    Re Antero

    Have not looked at yet, Tom, got an expected IPO date there yet?

  74. 74
    DaveH Says:

    Re: 70 Thanks for the thoughts.   I agree completely.  I owned stock in one Chinese company that was a pure cardboard front and fortunately I got out with a profit before the charade was disclosed.    I also owned a Canadian Venture Exchange biotech that had a cure for Alzheimer's that went bankrupt in May.   Its better to have a reasonable, realistic profit than a shot at the moon that fizzles.

  75. 75
    zman Says:

    I stay away from anything that's a primary listing on the Vancouver. Motto of that exchange has been joked to be:

    "there's an American born every minute"

  76. 76
    tomdavis12 Says:

    73  Antero  The official word I received is that the IPO is yet to be determined. There are 12 IPO's scheduled for this week and only 1 next week. After that you are looking for Sept. In Aug they mostly shut down the IPO market. If you think it could be this week, I can check again later in case the guy I asked overlooked it. It is not on the website I check with.    

  77. 77
    zman Says:

    Thanks Tom, sounds like I have a little time.  Is JONE on that list? Reviewed them a couple of weeks back

  78. 78
    nrgyman Says:

    The decline in oil prices has the refiners perking up.  Wondering if that is a trade that is brewing.

  79. 79
    zman Says:

    Re 78. That is the trade I've been talking about with zorg, long refiners and short oil. I'm not in yet on the refiner long having been patiently waiting for them to come of. VLO reports tomorrow. Numbers not an issue after the pre announcement but the outlook, cooments on export markets and the RIN issue to take center stage. Expecting exports to be seen as still strong and no movement on RINs. Demand slacking off due to price but cracks have bottomed. They can't point to a solid ssecond half. 

  80. 80
    tomdavis12 Says:

    77 Looks like this week. JPMorgan/Barclay's/Wells Fargo on top of prospectus. You can get prospectus on http://www.retailroadshow.com    

  81. 81
    DaveH Says:

    Saturday I received in the mail two legal documents regarding CPNO that I owned until it was bought out by KMP.  All they say is:
    1. Attorneys initiated a smoke screen suit that the buyout was not in stockholders best interests
    2. KMP agreed to release some data that showed the buyout was in stockholders best interests.
    3. Shareholders receive nothing from the suit.
    4. The attorney's generated 25,000 pages of BS and will  receive pay in an amount that is still to be negotiated up to $450,000

  82. 82
    DaveH Says:

    RE: 75   LOL

  83. 83
    Zorgnak Says:

    VLO  Long


  84. 84
    zman Says:

    Re JONE http://zmansenergybrain.com/2013/06/05/wednesday-morning-ipo-early-preview-plus-wpx/

    mildly interesting, depends on how they price it. 

  85. 85
    tomdavis12 Says:

    http://safeshare.tv/w/lNQxKkFRoZ        For those golfers out there that woul like a laugh.

  86. 86
    Zorgnak Says:

    #80…Re pair trande  VLO/WTI.Statistically HFC has the strongest negative correlation to Crude followed by WNR

  87. 87
    Zorgnak Says:



  88. 88
    elijahwc Says:

    MHR re Pfds article:



  89. 89
    Zorgnak Says:

    EOX Relative strength today and trying to breakout again


  90. 90
    Zorgnak Says:

    BCEI  Relative strength attempting breakout


  91. 91
    nrgyman Says:

    Refiners running strong into VLO earnings.  TSO leading today's charge.

  92. 92
    nrgyman Says:

    PSX pricing an MLP spinoff tonight for trading tomorrow.



  93. 93
    elijahwc Says:

    GDP: RJF upgrading now

  94. 94
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    GDP = thinking, before Sept 30th, we will see GDP in a deal to monetize the "core" part of their TMS holdings with a private equity firm(s).  It could alchemize $150/acre into $5,000/acre.  That is going to make the RaJa analyst look like a Genius.

    Meanwhile, waiting to hear the results from ECA's two Anderson wells in the TMS.  GDP has a smidgeon minority position in those wells.  But once those data are in, nothing to stop a nice TMS Monetization from happening.  Should be a couple more weeks, if that long.

  95. 95
    elduque Says:

    TAT- operational update:


  96. 96
    thumper Says:

    looks like HK is doing some take-away planning


  97. 97
    nrgyman Says:

    Cramer on the tube pumping the domestic E&P names, highlighting Bakken names CLR, WLL and KOG.  Also likes CRZO, PXD and CXO.  And EOG.  Says now is the time to buy NAT, with a 7% yield and upside.  Says to stay away from the mid-continent refiners like HFC and MPC.  All of this due to WTI closing the pricing gap with Brent, which he says will continue.  Bandwagon joiner.  FWIW.

  98. 98
    DaveH Says:

    Tom McClellan, son of the founders of the McClellan Oscillator, writes a newsletter and also sends out a free copy once a week.   I get only the free copy.  This week he focused on the fact that oil is in backwardation, meaning that oil futures prices for further out months are less than for the front month.   He thinks that will mean that E&P companies will be biased to sell more oil in the front month rather than holding it for the out months, which will drive down the price of the front month soon.   

    That got me thinking about whether the futures prices can predict well the actual future price of oil, which would then affect how well our E&P stocks do.   It seems to me that a large part of the oil futures contracts are smart people at refiners who want to buy oil at the cheapest possible price and on the other side smart E&P people who want to sell it at the highest possible price.   There are also speculators who just bet on whether oil will go up or down in the future and either buy contracts if they think it is going up or sell them if they think it is going down, with both of those groups never intending to take delivery of the oil in a contract.   I don't know what percentage of the trading is speculators versus what percentage is E&P companies and refiners, but I suspect the E&P and refiners are a significant part of the market.   If they are, then the futures contracts reflect a consensus price that smart commercial traders have decided is a fair price, given what they foresee for the future.  

    So with that in mind I looked at the future contract prices for the next few months.   They are all above $100 through January 2014 and only slowly drop under $100 starting in months after January 2014.   We had a call a few months ago that oil would go to $65 soon, but that was an analyst who probably did not own a single oil contract himself, so just taking his WAG.  Some people have talked about "what if oil goes into the $80s" but if the futures contracts are pricing it over $100 through January,it seems unlikely to me that it will go into the $80's before January.   

    I am just a novice at all this but I'm sure someone has done studies of how well the futures contract prices out x months predicts what the price will be x months from now.   If they predict fairly well it would seem like something we could employe in deciding what price to pay for E&P companies.     I would be interested in any information others here have on how well the futures predict the actual future oil prices.


  99. 99
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Hi DaveH — #98 good thoughts.  From what I have seen, studies do not support the futures market as any better indicator of commodity prices in the future than an analyst's price deck.  Caveat would be that this is the conclusion of studies attempting to price well out into the future (a year and greater).  It could well be that the Futures Market does a decent job of pricing out near-term.

  100. 100
    RMD Says:

    98 my (unscientifically measured but yrs of observation) opinion is that the futures market has been wrong, but better than most of the forecasters. I'd like to hear about a real study of this though.

  101. 101
    zman Says:

    Waiting on BTU and VLO to report

    DaveH – In general agreement with BOPs comment, it's good for direction but not for the actual prices, and the strip can reset itself pretty quickly due to events, as it recent did and I expect it to do so again in a couple of months, lower. Ive done some work on this and will post something updated on it later this week when back in the office

    Tropics Watch: not a lot going on. Air is dry across Atlantic and winds are high, tough for storms to get going in that, peak of season about to begin and that can change pretty quick. 


  102. 102
    life’s-a-gas Says:

    Banks' involvement in the physical commodites market is on the front burner on the Hill:

    "On Tuesday, the Senate banking committee holds its first hearing on Wall Street's role in the trillion-dollar physical market for oil and other commodities."



  103. 103
    zman Says:

    re 102 – noted, and it's like clockwork, every time we have a good move up in prices, you have congress accusing people of manipulating prices and asking refiners why gasoline is so high. Usually not much comes of it. The head of CFTC has been on the warpath (as in he wants to regulate everything) for some time now, but little has changed. Some trading firms may move more of their business to the ME. 

  104. 104
    zman Says:

    VLO 2Q13

    Essentially in line quarter, top of range provided when they preannounced a miss 2 weeks back

    They noted again recent efforts to increase ULSD production

    Capex looks fine for 2014 at $2.5 to $3.0 B, should not be surprising

    Not much said about RINs, that will be discussed on the call

    Noted again they are now examining doing an MLP of their logistics assets which as they indicated last quarter would be the focus for the deal group following the spinout of their retail segment

    They also noted leveraging cheap natural gas and NGLs. 

    Call is at 11 am EST, stock to hinger near term on those comments and oil prices


  105. 105
    zman Says:

    BTU 2Q13

    Revenues of $1.73 B vs $1.82 B est

    Adj EPS of $0.33 vs an expected loss of 5 cents

    – cost cutting measures in US and Australia helping

    – capex being reduced

    Global Coal Notes

    "US and global coal demand continue to grow" … they really should say "rebound" for the US part of that

    – China and India to have record import year

    – China up 13% through June, both met and thermal coal driving growth

    – India generation up 9% and domestic production along with imports struggling to meet demand. EPA … what are you going to do about that ? Oh, right, nothing. 

    – bye bye nukes watch: Japan and Germany seeing strong coal demand increases ..Germany looks like US a decade ago, with 52% of power now coming from coal… these guys are moving backwards

    – seaborne inventories remain high, cuts in production in China and US starting to have some effect though

    – US exports off 30% in June

    – Australia/Indonesia production remain high

    -75 GW of new coal fired generation capacity set to come on this year

    – 425 GW of new coal capacity coming on 2012-2017 

    – no surprise in the US coal has taken back some generation share

    – US generator stockpiles falling at above average rates

    OK quarter. Demand remains quite strong, production falling from 2 key areas, helping to balance out inventories. We own a smaller than starter sized position here having waited for a couple of years now to add additional shares. Not adding today but think the group deserves a little more attention and see BTU as healthiest choice in the sector longer term. 



  106. 106
    zman Says:

    NFX – may get an operations update a day before the call on Thursday


  107. 107
    elduque Says:

    BDI at 1127


    Brent/WTI widening out a little at 2.6


    TYX at 3.587


  108. 108
    Zorgnak Says:

    XLE   Strong sector demand volume at levels that has signalled topping action since 2008. Shorter term studies not showing any rollover as of yesterday.



  109. 109
    elduque Says:

    FCX- beat the street estimates $.49 vs street at $.45. 

  110. 110
    tomdavis12 Says:


    Last week Joan L gave her update on EXXI. Always well done.

  111. 111
    Andy Moore Says:

    JONE coming tomorrow  19-21

  112. 112
    tomdavis12 Says:

    KOG- Announced production & guidance. 2nd Q production below guidance (widely known). Current prod higher than expected and they have a few more to come on this quarter. With the bond deal done and no equity need (for now) stock should act well. Still high leverage here.

  113. 113
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Areas of Interest  7/23 6 AM ES 1692


    Notes…. Market in range expansion mode. Little market structure in either direction. Demand volume positive in all time frames confirming new highs. Breadth uptrend intact. Sector rotation with Financials leading, Tech, Consumer and high RS stocks lagging. POMO supportive through the end of the month.  $USD Testing lower, demand volume turning negative. 800 + companies report this week.

    Thoughts …….Range expansion into new highs.. Little market structure (support or resistance) with 1677.25 as nearest volume pivot. Expecting dips to be bought.

    Glossary   http://www.futurestrader71.com/?page_id=1280

    1670-77  Minor CHVN/Short term volume pivot

    1666 Minor CLVN/Support

    1655 CLVN  Minor Support

    1644.75 Minor CHVN/ Volume gaps below

    1629.50 Minor CLVN/Support

    1620.25 CHVN

    SP500 Futures




  114. 114
    tomdavis12 Says:

    GPOR – Production update near high end of range expectation. Only negative is gas mix higher than expected (29% vs 21%).

  115. 115
    Zorgnak Says:

    Crude Oil Futures  Balanced trading between minor resistance at 106.75 and  minor support at 104.25 with volume gap to 100.50 below.


  116. 116
    zman Says:

    KOG operations update and notes offering

    2Q volumes, at 23,200 BOEpd, up 8% sequentially, they had been pointing to 20% (about 26,000 BOEpd) prior to a bigger ramp in 2Q, as has become the case over the last 6 quarters, Lynn over promising on the calls. Annoying but not end of world

    Current production (legacy) of 28,500 BOEpd showing the expected ramp, and total current of 34,000 BOEpd which adds in the 5.5 mboepd acquired from Liberty (the Ursid area). 

    Updated reserves to include 1h13 drilling and Ursid are 123.9 mmboe, up from 94.8 mmboe at ye12, most of the growth is Ursid

    Guidance is about as you'd expect for 2013 with Ursid included at 30 to 34,000 BOEpd. 

    Budget upped to $950 mm to $1 B from a prior $775 mm to include the acquisition

    Sounds like the cube spacing test of 6 Bakken and 6 TFS wells at Polar is about right on time. Some of the current flush production number is coming from the Polar and Smokey spacing tests. 

    It will be nice to see these guys actually make a production target they toss out. Good acreage with good drilling results but they always seem to promise ahead of a more feasbile drilling schedule

    $300 mm senior notes offereing on the tape as well. That's about half the cost of buying Ursid, rest can stay on the revolver or they could be prepping a similar sized equity offering, dunno. Either way, again, not end of world. 


  117. 117
    zman Says:

    BCEI – heh, heh, heh. Name working high now. 

  118. 118
    zman Says:

    HAL – guessing Street faily pleased today in terms of ratings and estimates relative to yesterday's little dip post numbers. Short and especially medium term things look improved to me there. 

  119. 119
    zman Says:

    BTU – trying to bottom, nice press release, reads very much like the last several only with a better spin on the generation front in the States thanks to higher natural gas prices. 

  120. 120
    gdr Says:

    z—–Happy w KOG release or disappointed?

  121. 121
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    KOG — biggest boost to the stock is that they are issuing debt.  At a higher rating.  Wow.  That is quite the accomplishement for Lynn.  Mr. Market takes that as "not gonna issue equity… right now, that is."  So maybe a teensy bit of short-covering??

    Pondering…. What do I think?  I think they should do another acqtn… like TPLM.  But use their equity to swap into it.  That would delever the balance sheet without having to issue new equity into the market.  That would send the Crowd into a Frenzy, methinks.

  122. 122
    zman Says:

    Re 120 , not pleased with the quarterly number but don't see that as a reason t be. A seller… See above but they really do have good acreage, just a bad habit of over promising.  What you don't want to see is constant adds of production wedges and them still not make what should've been a simple addition of the volumes .  They did that in 2012 and it was a bug part of what stalled the stock.  

  123. 123
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    GDP … did I mention I think they are working on JV'ing (well, actually selling, but operating and keeping a back in) their "core TMS" to a private equity firm?  Yep.  Makes sense on many levels (both to GDP and to a PE firm, who can turn around and package it as "hard assets" to a pension fund or two or three).  Apparently I'm not the only one hearing these rumblings… and where there is smoke, there is usually fire.  Not always… but often enough to take a seat around the ol' campfire and wait for the marshmellow roast to begin.

  124. 124
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    hmmmm… stock market higher… but credit market in the red.  Push-Me, Pull-You market.  I'll bet Credit wins… watch the JNK ETF for clues.

  125. 125
    zman Says:

    Re 121 absolutely agree and not just because I'm size in TPLM. The fit is good from s postition standpoint, and they get a frac spreads and the Montana position essentially for free.  Everyone seems to want to still buy production over acreage in the Basin but TPLM is rapidly approaching a volume level that will make them a "buyable" target in that sense.  KOG could have used the same purchase price to get them with a modest premium a year back but that would have out more value on acreage and less on flowing BOE's … Now that's not as true and soon they will have to pay a $B to get them 

  126. 126
    elduque Says:

    Thanks BOP for the GDP comments. 

  127. 127
    zman Says:

    Ok, gotta run, back later

  128. 128
    Roger Says:

    Z, re KOG. They averaged about 22k a day in first half of this year. So to hit the 32k midpoint of their latest guidance for the whole year, they will have to average 42k the last six months. With them at 34k now, do you think that is feasible, or are they gonna miss again? Sounds to me like they are stretching it again.

  129. 129
    zman Says:

    Roger – they added almost 6 mboepd inorganic with Ursid and adding big well count with the two 12 well pilots so I think it's doable, maybe not high of range but let's see some results of these first 13 of 24 wells that are now on line from the pilots … Those wells likely to be given some short term production rates at the time of the 2q call in August. 

  130. 130
    DaveH Says:

    GPOR hitting high end of guidance.  I am in GPOR because West gave it good marks a couple of years ago.  Been a nice ride.

    8:03AM Gulfport Energy provides operational update; co produced oil and natural gas sales volumes of 815,300 BOE, or 8,959 BOEPD, compared to the co's previously estimated guidance range of 8,500 to 9,000 BOEPD (GPOR) 51.26 : Co produced oil and natural gas sales volumes of 815,300 barrels of oil equivalent ("BOE"), or 8,959 barrels of oil equivalent per day ("BOEPD"), compared to the company's previously estimated guidance range of 8,500 to 9,000 BOEPD. For the second quarter of 2013, net production was 535,182 barrels of oil, 1,414,797 thousand cubic feet ("MCF") of natural gas and 1,861,360 gallons of natural gas liquids ("NGL"), or 815,300 BOE. Net production for the second quarter of 2013 by region was 297,421 BOE at West Cote Blanche Bay ("WCBB"), 183,703 BOE at Hackberry, 320,718 BOE in the Utica Shale and an aggregate of 13,458 BOE in the Bakken, Niobrara and other areas. 

  131. 131
    Zorgnak Says:

    HK  sellers look done. Support at 5.60 ish


  132. 132
    Zorgnak Says:

    HFC testing resistance



  133. 133
    Zorgnak Says:

    Money flows


  134. 134
    milepost_43 Says:

    WPRT…anybody looking at it on this pullback to what looks like good support? stochastics OVERSOLD… earnings about the 3rd

  135. 135
    Zorgnak Says:

    #135 WPRT  Falling back into it's volume base/below support at 31.63 Demand volume still postive longer term, negative short term.On 52 Oversold swing trades above 200 Ma  shows 73% winners with 1.99 profit factor. Note heavy drawdowns of 18% since 2011 on several occasions. 


  136. 136
    zman Says:

    Analyst Watch:

    BCEI – Johnson Rice initiates at Oveweight

    they put 3p NAV at $51 and break that down between different aspects of the company's Wattenberg play.  Nothing in there for the mid continent program even though that kicks off cash flow that is then sent to the Rockies,,. They also not the premium of the current valuation vs the rest of E&Ps as warranted due to the hi growth rate and long lateral potential.  sort of a "no duh" type statement on the first part and I think they are missing the point on the second.  Long lateral maybe longer term but its only a catalyst list item and not a focus this year. Anyway, good to have another analyst group on board with the name, better late than never.

  137. 137
    Zorgnak Says:

    Energy Volume 33 of 80 above average for time of day. 36 of 80 green

    Up > 1%  on abvoe average volume


    DOWN 1> 1% on above average volume



  138. 138
    Zorgnak Says:

    re #138   First stock should have been HAL

  139. 139
    Zorgnak Says:

    VLO trying to go green. Demand volume improving intra-day.  First resistance 36.20



  140. 140
    nrgyman Says:

    Refiners showing relative strength again.  

  141. 141
    Zorgnak Says:

    VLO  volume 4.7 mil vs 2.2 for time of day

  142. 142
    Zorgnak Says:

    #142 VLO  4.7 today vs 2.2 avg for time of day

  143. 143
    zman Says:

    VLO 2Q13 notes

    RIN costs being passed along to drivers?

    A. Not sure, trying to figure that out but think maybe some so far. VLO cost of complying with renewable fuels standard this years is $600-$800mm

    It's turning into a cost of manufacturing. 

    2014 capex?

    a. Maintain safe ops, keep investment grade rating, keep more cash than usual. Mkt giving us opportunities via cheap NG, cheap source of butanes that can be converted to gasoline. 


  144. 144
    zman Says:


    Talking about a lot of oppys. Everything just must be done with a long term view as permitting takes 4 to 5 years. 

    RIN comments interesting … Thinks we see legislation but maybe not this year. Said EPA is unable to get anything done.  Said other than some 2013 cars most warranties void higher ethanol in the gas mix. Also retail outlets worried about going beyond the E85 level in their tanks and lines and also said pumps would need alterations. 

  145. 145
    zman Says:

    VLO. Just said 2h13 to show improvement in. Crude discounts, was breaking up but thought they said they thought Brent WTI re expanding to 6 to 8

  146. 146
    elduque Says:

    FCX- going to cut back drilling in the Eagle Ford, but still plans to spend for the ultra deep. Jim Bob was harder to understand than usual. Will wait for the transcript. 

  147. 147
    Zorgnak Says:

    Relative volume drying up in energy stocks…. down to 25 of 80 higher than average now for time of day.  Greens expanding to 44 of 80

  148. 148
    milepost_43 Says:

    144 ethanol's undertheradar problem… Stress Corrosion Cracking in welds….know it is a problem in terminals….MPC replacing terminal piping and having to do special post heat treating of new welds….

    Internal stress corrosion cracking (SCC) has been detected in pipeline and terminal facilities used to handle ethanol.  SCC, which is hard to predict and to detect, can and has led to system failures. 

  149. 149
    Zorgnak Says:

    KOG Tested swing high and then volume base..upside bias back to 9.60 to my eye..


  150. 150
    Bob Says:

    BOP (OT-sort of = Bonds) Thank you for introducing me to the bond world during those dark days of March, 2009, when it seemed like the financial world was going to end. The CHK  9.5 non-callable 2/15/15 was trading as low as 88 just after the issuance, and with less than 2 yrs to maturity it is now sitting comfortably at 111. (Question now is hold to maturity, or book the capital gains and move on.)  Bought several bonds since then, and still hold EXXI 7.75 6/15/19 and XCO 7.5 9/15/18 in energy land. I like the fact that bond prices don’t necessarily dip when the company’s stock suddenly drops. Thanks also for pointing out that one should very patiently wait for the bond price to come down to one’s comfort zone, and not to chase  it.

    I need/want to increase my bond holdings, as a few others have been called this year.  Do you or anybody else on the board have a favorite web-site, newsletter, etc. to help in the screening process?? Thanks!

  151. 151
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Bob — #150 phew!  Thanks for that walk down Memory Lane.  Remember when KSU had to issue those secured bonds in Dec 2008?  That was the darkest day I can recall in my financial lifetime.  However, anyone who snagged those bonds (or the CHK's) looked like a financial genius by 2010.  That was truly buying "when there is blood in the streets."

    Anyway, buying (and holding) individual bonds is the only way I will invest in fixed income these days.  Funds have rolling maturies and have to keep reinvesting, so in essence they have a "maturity date" of infinity.  That makes the bond duration of those funds a little too scary, when one is expecting bond yields to move up someday.

    As far as a website to search for bonds… perhaps someone here can help.  I have a bloomberg (which i've had since 1990), which used to be the only way to get bond quotes.  Now, the Fidelity and Schwab's of the world will quote you bonds on their websites.  But I haven't used their software (as I haven't needed to).  However, I have called both their bond trading desks… if you give 'em a price to work, they will work it.  Just like real estate… you don't have to pay the posted price… it's all a negotiation process.  (Which is one of the reasons why individual investors are reluctant to invest in bonds… takes some legwork and you can't just click "buy"… well, you probably can… but you won't get the best price).

    Thanks for asking.  Hopefully someone else can chime in here.

  152. 152
    Bob Says:

    Thanks BOP!. I had forgotten the KSU debacle. I get good bond quotes and executions with IB. Just trying to refine my screening techniques


  153. 153
    elduque Says:

    Zorg- your thoughts on RRC would be appreciated.

  154. 154
    zman Says:

    Just checking in briefly , 

    the day looks tone less as was yesterday, both for market and group

    oil flattish, spread to Brent bouncing back slightly, should be s common theme for indie refiners, or for analysts that like them now as that's a help and so is cheaper NG for nnow 

    NG up 6 cent, rebounding off the dip from yesterday on the weak forecast and likelihood that the hurricane forecasts will all get reined in a bit



  155. 155
    nrgyman Says:

    XOP top-10 holdings update (these change rather quickly and represent picks from a large universe that includes oil names, natgas names and refiners, which seem to weight relative strength as a big component–note that these top 10 names in total represent less than 20% of the fund and none are more than 1.7% of the fund):


  156. 156
    elijahwc Says:

    HERO: Apparently has a blow out on a NGas well.  Not under control yet.

  157. 157
    Zorgnak Says:

    Re #154  RRC   

    RRC Coming off with the other main gas names (COG EQT SWN)…trading back and forth across acceptance at 77. Support at 75 is well defined. RRC has been a very good swing trader off 10 day lows, if above 200 Ma. 72 trades since 2003.72% winners. Profit factor 3.55 with low trade drawdown. So I see this as opportunity should it continue to fall closer to support. Thanks for pointing this one out to me.


  158. 158
    elijahwc Says:

    HERO: 44 evacuated



  159. 159
    Zorgnak Says:

    RRC  Here's a longer term view of the uptrend.  75 is near support and then 72 if things got hairy, which I don't expect.


  160. 160
    nrgyman Says:

    1:44 PM Phillips 66 Partners (PSXP +30.6%) flies past $30/share after selling stock in its IPO at $23 each (which itself was raised from earlier guidance of $19-$21). Phillips 66 (PSX+2.5%) remains an owner of more than 70% of the spinoff.  (from Alpha)

  161. 161
    Zorgnak Says:

    Re #154  RRC   Gas stock group has often struggled at this point when demand volume reaches this level after a big run up.


  162. 162
    jy Says:

    Re 158:  Too bad the media in New Orleans STILL don't know the difference between a drilling RIG and a production PLATFORM.  Hercules 265 is a mat supported cantilever type mobile jack up drilling rig designed to drill in water depths up to 250'  The rig is operating for Walter O&G in South Timbalier Blk 220.  All personnel are reported to be safely evacuated after a natural gas related well control incident.

  163. 163
    Zorgnak Says:

    re #154  RRC  Note that short term demand volume is still in an uptrend and net positive…not rolling over as of last nights reading.


  164. 164
    Zorgnak Says:

    PVA  Breakout setup still alive and well. Not getting much help from the group though…


  165. 165
    Zorgnak Says:

    #164 was relative to the group demand volume

  166. 166
    elduque Says:

    Thanks Zorg. earnings tomorrow after the close. I have flipped it a couple of times. 

  167. 167
    zman Says:

    NFX. Would not be surprised to see an ops update there tonight or in the morning

    PVA – good catalyst potential there on the 2q call, this is noise to me, nice set up for a move higher but good news on upper EFS can take it 10% higher from he pretty easily within a week of earnings. 


  168. 168
    zman Says:

    Re 166 – which name?

  169. 169
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    jy #162 — love it when you fill in with the (correct) technical details.  thanks so much for posting.

  170. 170
    Zorgnak Says:

    re#169  #166 was the cumulative demand  volume for the Nat Gas group

  171. 171
    Zorgnak Says:

    FSLR testing minor support. High relative strength momentum driven stocks underperforming generally everywhere. Biotech, Solars ect


  172. 172
    Zorgnak Says:

    NM  another maritime shipper attempting breakout..   GLOG pooped through yesterday. Noting that the majority of breakouts that I have up are not following through atm


  173. 173
    jy Says:

    BOP – just can't bear to watch incompetence and broadcasting of incorrect/misleading information by "news" outlets especially after the months/years of Macondo reporting ineptitude!

  174. 174
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z – PVA I always thought that with the success of some EOG EFS wells next door, that would translate into a higher valuation for PVA. Have you ever heard of a company like EOG buying the property next door because they know the secret sauce and get much more from the property? Or I can see that must have happened before but what would be the thought process on EOG's part as to whether they would follow that course of action? 

  175. 175
    nrgyman Says:

    2:40 PM  Kodiak Oil & Gas' (KOG +1.5%) operations update signals robust H2 growth ahead and sets up an impressive 2014, KeyBanc says in maintaining its Buy rating and $10.50 price target. A $300M debt issuance reduces the risk of sizable equity issuance should KOG carry out plans to divest $100M$150M of non-core assets by year-end, the firm adds. (from Alpha)

  176. 176
    elduque Says:

    re 168- RRC 

  177. 177
    Zorgnak Says:

    Goldman Sachs Commodity Index Weekly  Up against two year downtrend.


  178. 178
    john11 Says:

    DENVER, July 23, 2013 /PRNewswire/ — Kodiak Oil & Gas Corp. ("Kodiak") (KOG) today announced that it upsized and priced a private offering of $400 million in aggregate principal amount of senior notes due 2022 in a private placement to eligible investors. The notes will bear interest at 5.50% per annum and are being issued at a price of 100% of their face amount. The notes will be jointly and severally guaranteed on a senior basis by Kodiak's subsidiaries, Kodiak Oil & Gas (USA) Inc., Kodiak Williston, LLC and KOG Finance, LLC. Kodiak expects to close the notes offering on July 26, 2013, subject to the satisfaction of customary closing conditions.

  179. 179
    zman Says:

    Tom, re PVA and EOG, let me address tonight when I'm back to a better keyboard

    John – thanks, even better, makes potential equity deal that much smaller, good rate as well

  180. 180
    Zorgnak Says:

    Refiners  Healthy demand volume under the refiners today. All the major names still have resistance/supply from the the break on 6/19 to test.

    HFC looks the farthest along on recovery. 


  181. 181
    Zorgnak Says:

    COAL Producers… Nice run with some demand volume this month running into resistance and selling now. 


    BTU  Confluence of CLVN resistance and downtrend at 18. Note reversal today.


  182. 182
    crysball Says:

    Antero  and Gulfport

    Here  is  the  most  recent  Antero  Slide  Presentation………howerever, according  to    their  maps   GPOR  has  a  lot  less acreage  than  Antero??


  183. 183
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P  Market changing character. Demand Volume rotating out of leading stocks/groups into laggards. Cyclicals, Basic Materials, Emerging Markets.  

      Energy and Financials still working. 


  184. 184
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 182:  In the Utica shale, GPOR has 128,000 net acres and Antero has 100,000 net acres–both of which appear to be in the core of the play.  Antero has much more acreage overall due to their other Appalachian acreage prospective for the Marcellus and Devonian shales, which are primarily natgas with some NGLs.  GPOR assets outside of the Utica are oil based, primarily in the Gulf coast area and in the Canadian oil sands.  GPOR also owns a piece of FANG, which was a spin-off of their Permian assets.  It looks like Antero is primarily a low-cost natgas play and GPOR is more of an oil play, but as the Utica production grows their differences will narrow somewhat.  Antero appears to have a much longer runway of assets to develop, however, even if they are primarily natgas.  In that sense Antero resembles EQT, RRC and COG more than GPOR.  The EV for RRC is $15.5 billion, for EQT the EV is $14.9 billion, for COG the EV is $16.6 billion and for comparison SWN has an EV of $15.5 billion. For GPOR, the EV is just $4 billion.  Quality Marcellus acreage with low-cost natgas production is worth a lot.  Antero has it along with some nice Utica leasehold.  But they need capital to develop it.  Is Antero worth $10 billion?  I'd be interested in Z's take on this one.  Antero looks like it could become another natgas stalwart.  As such, portfolio managers will want to own it like they do its peers–perhaps thinking they will be able to get in early on the future of what looks for certain to be a top natgas-heavy E&P name.  IMO, this offering is likely to be hot–depending of course on the offering price.  This should be interesting.  Not often when a $10 billion E&P IPO hits the market.  Just my current take, FWIW.  

  185. 185
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Areas of Interest  7/24 6 AM ES 1694


    Notes…. Market in range expansion mode continuing to build acceptance above previous range . Rejected minor CHVN at 1687.75 as too  low intraday. Only minor market structure in either direction. Demand volume positive in all time frames confirming new highs. Breadth uptrend intact. Sector rotation with Financials leading, Tech, Consumer and high RS stocks lagging. POMO supportive through the end of the month.  $USD Testing lower, demand volume turning negative. 800 + companies report this week. Earnings reactions positive.

    Thoughts …….Range expansion into new highs.. Little market structure (support or resistance) with 1687.75 as nearest volume pivot.  Expecting dips to be bought.

    Glossary   http://www.futurestrader71.com/?page_id=1280

    1687.75  Minor CHVN

    1679.75 Minor CLVN/Support

    1670-77  Minor CHVN

    1667.75 Minor CLVN/Support

    1620.25 CHVN

    SP500 Futures




  186. 186
    zman Says:

    COG call is tomorrow, not ttoday also, add RRC to the list for tomorrow

    i'll be back at my desk today at 1 pm EST, look for the regular Thursday post in thenmorning

    Consensus for oil inventories today is down 2.5 mm barbells on crude and up 1.5 mm barrels for gasoline and ddistillates c

    consensus for tomorrow's natural gas inventory number is 48 BCF injected


  187. 187
    Zorgnak Says:

    Crude Oil Futs  


    NG  Demand volume turning positive on the daily and weekly time frames.



  188. 188
    Mark Wetzler Says:

    Does anyone know who controls Antero?

  189. 189
    Zorgnak Says:

    US PMI beat….


  190. 190
    Mark Wetzler Says:

    Nevermind I found their website

  191. 191
    elduque Says:

    Brent/WTI at .8


    TYX at 3.637


  192. 192
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Austin, TX based Jones Energy priced their IPO today at $15.

    Don't know squat about the company… but ticker "JONE" and name sounds like something you find at the bottom of a cereal box.

    Jonny Jones is CEO… wonder where he came up with the name of the company?  hmmmm….

  193. 193
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Jones Energy… the head of their Audit Committee is also a member of the Association of Insolvency Accountants… and Association of Certified Fraud Examiners.  Comforting.  hmmm….

  194. 194
    RMD Says:

    Athlon Energy is a Citi/GS IPO in the pipeline.  It's Permian focused, I think there is a netroadshow.  I don't know the co.

  195. 195
    jy Says:

    HERO – from 07:00 PR this morning:

    "HOUSTON, July 24, 2013 /PRNewswire/ — Hercules Offshore (NASDAQ:  HERO) today provided updates to the incident aboard jackup drilling rig Hercules 265, a 250' mat-supported cantilevered unit, operating for Walter Oil & Gas Corporation in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico OCS lease block South Timbalier 220.  Late yesterday evening, the natural gas flowing from the well ignited which spread to the rig. The extent of the damage to the rig is currently unknown. The Company is currently working with its customer, Walter Oil & Gas, and regulatory authorities to determine the cause of the incident, but our immediate focus is on stopping the flow of natural gas from the well. All parties involved are working with third-party experts to develop a plan to regain control over the natural gas well, which could include the drilling of a relief well….."


  196. 196
    zman Says:

    We reviewed JONE the other day, please see pull down menu at upper left. I think I called it somewhat interesting, low cost but high in NGLs so not the best margins.  Deal pays down some debt, not a small name, plays are midcon. 

  197. 197
    DaveH Says:

    Anybody from here attending the FTK investor's meeting?   They might serve some unusual drinks for refreshments.

    HOUSTON, July 24, 2013 – Flotek Industries, Inc. ("Flotek" or the "Company") (<font "="" color="#A20200">FTK) will host investors for meetings in Orlando, Florida on Monday, July 29, 2013. The presentations will introduce investors to the Company's recent acquisition of Florida Chemical Company, Inc. – including a tour of Florida Chemical's Winter Haven, Florida facilities and additional financia and accounting information – as well as update investors on the current business operations of the Company. In addition, Flotek senior leadership will discuss the Company's heightened commitment to global environment stewardship for oil and natural gas exploration and production.

  198. 198
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #196 — shoulda known you would be all over anything "energy."  You are an Alligator in your Pond.  NOTHING gets by you!

    On a related note:  No jonesing for Jones, it looks like.  IPO'd at $15… opened at $14.04.  Yee-OUCH!

  199. 199
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #197 — DaveH… that's funny!

  200. 200
    Mark Wetzler Says:

    Fidelity price indication for IPO of JONE was $19-21. Guess it wasn't so popular

  201. 201
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    GDP resumes it's relentless march upward.  ECA holds it's quarterly conf call at 1pm EDT today.  Guess GDP-ers are hoping ECA will spill some operational beans about the one Anderson well (of two) that was completed a coupla days ago.  May make for some interesting after-lunch action in GDP…

  202. 202
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #200 — double-Yee-Ouch!!

    Guess I'll have to go read what Z said about it… but since he didn't participate, sounds like he kept the group from stepping into that one.

  203. 203
    Zorgnak Says:

    Crude #s in 8 min

  204. 204
    Zorgnak Says:

    CRZO  Minor support around 30


    WPX Defined support 18.75


  205. 205
    Zorgnak Says:

    Energy stock volume 39 of 80 above average for time of day.   78 of 80 red

  206. 206
    zman Says:

    Oil iinventories rude down 2.8 mm bbarrels 

    Gasoline down 1.4

    distillates down 1.5


  207. 207
    Zorgnak Says:

    Crude #s

    -2825k vs. Exp. -2800k

  208. 208
    zman Says:

    More EIA

    utilzation off slightly but still hi just over 92 ppercent imports low but up from last week at 8 mm bopd


  209. 209
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P  Mkt volume running heavy today. 35% above average for time of day

  210. 210
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    GDP… pondering… another scenario:  ECA should just buy 'em.  ECA wants to get oilier.  ECA is a $13B market cap company.  Biting off little ol' $600mm market cap GDP would be a nice snack for them.

  211. 211
    zman Says:

    More EIA


    gasoline up slightly week to week, holding at OK llevels distillates, back to seasonal high, very strong this time of year at over 4.3 mm bpd

    apologies for format, typing with iPad sucks



  212. 212
    zman Says:

    More EIA

    US production up to 7.55 bopd , new high this cycle


  213. 213
    zman Says:

    Last of EIA

    stocks at Cushing down whopping 2.1 mm barrels

    All in all, near term bullish report aside from e weekly bump in production

    Across e board inventory drops were not expected. Ad the continued strength in distillate demand is a plus and point to a re ramp in exports. 

    Longer term, no change in thinking, refining throughput running over 16 mm bopd now makes. Te current high production levels OK but come Fall we drop to 14 and stocks will rebuild like a banshee. Enjoy the triple digits while they last.  

  214. 214
    elduque Says:

    GDP- to quote a famous personality- Yipee Skipee

  215. 215
    Zorgnak Says:

    Crude Oil   Holding minor support after #s


  216. 216
    RMD Says:

    JONE: I wonder if the leads -Barclays, JPM, & WFC- are ashamed? (Retorical question)

    Athlon roadshow a primer on northern Permian drilling: Howard, Glascock counties. Apollo funded, drilling vertically to hold acres, best mgt team so lowest costs (interesting co. by co. cost comparison slides, also well productivity comparisons by co.) and highest ROI.

    IPO will fund move to hz wells. Co. put together to take public, this is CEO's 4th co. Rinse, repeat. I didn't take down stats on valuation.

  217. 217
    RMD Says:

    Canaccord starts EPL with a hold, TP 35. Not feeling the love here, wonder if it was APA's sale price values reflected onto EPL?

  218. 218
    zman Says:

    RMD – re embassment. Thanks for the laugh  

    re JONE valuation, had that on my mini review. Kinda a boring but will watch. 


  219. 219
    jy Says:

    GDP – Article front page in today"s Baton Rouge "The Advocate" nespaper regarding GDP purchase of Devon's Tuscaloosa shale assets and some quotes from President Rob Turnham.


  220. 220
    elduque Says:

    RRC- small purchase at 76.15 to hold thru the earnings report.



  221. 221
    zman Says:

    TS Dorian forms mid Atlantic

  222. 222
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    jy — #219  thanks MUCHO for posting!

  223. 223
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #219 — makes me glad i am not a Devon shareholder…

  224. 224
    Zorgnak Says:

    Crude Oil through near support. Next support at 104.25. Volume gap below 104.25 to 100.50


  225. 225
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 223:  If the rumors are true (and I doubt that they are) you may be thanking Devon again if they buy KOG.  The gist of the rumors are that DVN has several billion $$ outside the US that they don't want to repatriate and pay 35% taxes on.  If DVN Canada buys another Canadian firm (KOG is chartered in Canada) they can supposedly then bypass the taxes with those funds.  Interesting speculation.  I do not know if it will hold scrutiny on the tax side and it goes against DVN's typical MO to by land and develop it, but getting a good Bakken position at a 35% discount (for them) might make sense as a way to use some of those un-repatriated funds.  This is a wild speculation rumor that has some sense to it but I doubt it happens.  If it did though DVN would make many of us happy.

  226. 226
    choices Says:

    WLT off 15%-huge cut in dividend, liquidity issues-I'm actually tempted here.

    Z or zorg, any thoughts?  I know, coal, but looking out longer term, may be a level worth considering if indeed, it is an over reaction to a long expected div cut-I think the size shocked some, >90% cut.


  227. 227
    Zorgnak Says:

    #227  RE WLT…Looks like more lows still ahead to me.  I'd want to buy this one when it's settles out a bit more and heads in the right direction. But that's just me…

    Long Term Chart


  228. 228
    choices Says:

    Thanks, zorg-tough to argue with your logic-not a happy chart.

  229. 229
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Futs…..testing  minor support at 1679.75. Watch 1685 to gauge the strenght of any bounce.  

    A move through 1677.75 suggests more downside ahead. 


  230. 230
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #225 — thank you, nrgyman.  If true… you are correct!  I could learn to LUV Devon fairly quickly.

  231. 231
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    ECA conf call…. 4 mins late and still waiting…

  232. 232
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    ECA… anyone else trying to web-access this call?  Something seems to be amiss….

  233. 233
    elduque Says:

    I couldn't get on. 

  234. 234
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    I'm trying to get on via phone… on perma-hold.


  235. 235
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    ECA… 19 mins late and still counting….

  236. 236
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    ECA starting… phew.  Hope it's worth the wait.  Listening for anything they have to say about the TMS play.

  237. 237
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    TMS… performed v. well in past quarter

    last 3 wells have hit cost targets… good news, have struggled in past with this

    2 Anderson wells currently being completed and on-stream.  will have results out soon.

    Mississippi House reduced the severance… $700k savings per well

    More confident on being able to execute here

    Think upcoming 2 Anderson wells "will really be indicative of the play."  Sounds good to me!


  238. 238
    zman Says:

    re 237 – thanks BOP, what are they saying a completed well cost is in the play of late? 

  239. 239
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P futs…bulls need to step in here at the 1677.75 CHVN volume pivot.


  240. 240
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    ECA — they didn't say.  But GDP's CWC is currently $13mm.  GDP thinks they can continue to reduce the drilling days to get the CWC down to $10mm.  GDP and ECA share information…

  241. 241
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    XACS pointing out the difference between bank stock prices and associated CDS.  Saying the Credit Default Swaps indicate that stock prices should be lower.  And when bank stocks go lower, they usually drag the market with them.  That said, he thinks that the market is a Screaming Buy on any major pullback.  Which he is expecting in September.

    Just sold my BAC and MS.  Want dry powder.  FWIW.

  242. 242
    zman Says:

    re 240 – ECA had been putting bigger fracs on the wells than GDP and GDP wells have been doing better. ECA had once mentioned $17 mm (not that long ago) as the CWC, just trying to see if it's coming closer to in line with GDP thinking, thanks. 

    E&P space has that hot-money-run-for-hills feeling to it today. 

  243. 243
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    I think GDP's first TMS well was around $15mmm.  Now $13mm.  Going to $10mm.  ECA should just buy GDP.

    But they better move quickly… or GDP will monetize their TMS acreage out from under them.

    Either way, I expect to win.  That's The Plan, anyway.

  244. 244
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #243  …'course… no one goes long a stock without the expectation of making money in that stock.  Doesn't always work out that way.  But if you don't play, you can't win.  Just trying to pick the right points (and players) to step up to the plate.

  245. 245
    zman Says:

    Thanks, BOP, that sounds right

    After the close / before the open we get reports from:


  246. 246
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    ECA  has enuf in petty cash to buy GDP and still have a billion left over in their checking account.  With new CEO coming on… seems like he would want to make some sort of Bold Move.  And snagging GDP would make a lot of sense… and move the needle on ECA's desire to "get oiler."  The GDP TMS wells are getting less NGL-y too.  And ECA does not need any more liquids… just oil.  At LLS pricing.  Would make sense to gobble up the 2nd largest landholder in the TMS play.  Just noodling….

  247. 247
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Also… GDP has some 8.875% bonds trading just above par.  Those bonds are rated CCC.  ECA is rated BBB.  If ECA bought GDP, those bonds would trade above 109 easy.

  248. 248
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Actually, if the GDP 8.875% due 3/15/19 bonds traded to around the same yield as ECA's 6.5% due 5/15/19, then the GDP bonds would be about 113.50.

    So… something for everyone in this name.  Stock, bonds, converts, preferreds.  Pick your flavor.

    I'll shuddup now.

  249. 249
    zman Says:

    WLT – no opinion on the name at this time. Coal obviously still very much in the dog house. BTU had a good quarter, same good outlook, one day of respite granted for the stock and then its seen sellers on that one day pop. 

  250. 250
    zman Says:

    MCEP – we should get a quarterly distribution announcement within the next couple of days. 

  251. 251
    zman Says:

    Analyst Watch

    HAL – Cowen raises target from $57 to $63, rating stays Outperform

  252. 252
    zman Says:

    Analyst Watch:

    VLO – Oppenheimer cuts target by $10 to $42, stays Buy

    ROSE – Canaccord initiates with a Buy

  253. 253
    zman Says:

    FLSR on the deal with a 23 MW (fairly small) installation deal in New Mexico. Stock pulling back off recent bounce with everything else. I'm increasingly intersted in getting long the name. 

  254. 254
    zman Says:

    TPLM – earnings in a little over a month, stock on discount sale today with everything else, just dropped right back into recent base. 

  255. 255
    zman Says:

    Nice run in GDP against the grain today, congrats BOP, El-d

  256. 256
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #255 — thanks.  But it is especially comforting to see that stock price correlations have not converged to 1.0000.  It's the sign of a healthy(ish) market.

  257. 257
    elduque Says:

    Couldn't have done it without you teaching me about what to look for. 

  258. 258
    Zorgnak Says:

    KOG  some relative strength today…


  259. 259
    Zorgnak Says:

    VLO  trading in balance at 35  Support 33  Resistance and down trend line at 36.20. Ince 2003 when VLO has traded in the bottom of it's 10 week range low (8 times) 87% trade winners, 12.12 profit factor. Exit on a close > 10 week MA


  260. 260
    zman Says:

    OII – pulling back with all else but still priced pretty close to perfection. A meet there may be greeted with a sell off, given an oppy for re-entry. 


  261. 261
    zman Says:

    Beerthirty – back in a bit with comments as the names report

  262. 262
    zman Says:

    … and yes, still think NFX will be the sleeper story of the second half. 

  263. 263
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P  Bulls stepped in at the volume pivot 1677….wouldn't be suprised to see it rip higher..after the bell/overnight


  264. 264
    zman Says:

    WLL on the tape with an apparent beat on volumes. A little point of order on the name as they left Postle in for the quarter instead of how it was originally models as a discontinued ops item, so it's a beat but a muddled one. 

    WLL noting a strong Niobrara well at Redtail, over 1,000 BOEpd 

    Guidance for year basically stays same despite punting the EOR project at Postle

    Budget travels about 15% higher, that may be unpopular

    Will have deets in morning post. 

    NFX on the tape, comments in a bit…

  265. 265
    zman Says:

    NFX quick notes

     – in line quarter $2.28 vs $2.32 expect CF

    – upping guidance for company (was 44 to 47 mmboe, now 46 to 47 mmboe

    – sees capex moving to high end of prior range as well due to increased spending on international and more rigs running in the Cana and more wells getting drilled in Cana, Bakken, EFS due to rig efficiency gains. 

     – due to Cana/Woodford and Bakken (both segments were above 2Q guidance) … running more rigs in the Cana and drilling better than expected wells in the Williston 

    – now reporting international ops as discontinued so that when sold it will be easy to make apples to apples comps … only comment on the sale is that the process is underway and progressing as planned

    Favorite quote watch:  "The year 2013 is shaping up to be a great one for Newfield," said Lee K. Boothby, Newfield Chairman, President and CEO. "We are executing extremely well in our domestic focus areas and our production is running ahead of our beginning of the year expectations.  In addition, many of our project returns are benefitting from more efficient drilling, improved service costs and advancements in our completion processes. Our operational successes in 2013 are helping to build momentum for 2014 and we are confident in our ability to deliver on our three-year plan."


    Details in the morning post

  266. 266
    zman Says:

    OII on the tape with a nice revenue driven beat, ups guidance to straddle current consensus for the year. Strength from almost all segments, record quarter for ROVs. 



  267. 267
    zman Says:

    RRC on the tape with the as expected (pre announced) strong quarter, noting they are upping reserve potential 

    COG on the tape, 2 for 1 split

  268. 268
    Zorgnak Says:

    XLE Large Cap Energy stocks are still in an uptrend but showing signs consistant with past corrections. Less than 50% above 10MA. Demand volume rolling over on the all time frames. 

    % of Stocks > 10 MA


    Cumulative Demand Volume



  269. 269
    milepost_43 Says:

    Halliburton agrees to plead guilty to destruction of evidence in Deepwater case


    CNBC.com | Thursday, 25 Jul 2013 | 6:35 PM ET

    Halliburton Energy Services has agreed to plead guilty to destroying evidence in the Deepwater Horizon disaster, the Justice Department said.

    Halliburton has been charged with one count of destroying evidence, according to a filing made today in U.S. District Court in Louisiana. The company has signed a cooperation and guilty plea agreement, the Justice Department said.

    In April 2010, there was an explosion at the Deepwater Horizon rig in the Gulf of Mexico which resulted in the deaths of 11 rig workers and the largest oil spill in U.S. history. In early May, Halliburton conducted its own investigation of the incident, which included two computer simulations of the well's final cementing job.

    According to the Justice Department report, the program manager was directed to destroy the results and similar evidence was destroyed about a month later.

    In agreeing to plead guilty, Halliburton "has accepted criminal responsibility" for destroying this evidence, the Justice Department said.

  270. 270
    roblox speed hack Says:

    roblox speed hack

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