Wrap – Week Ended 7/12/13

14 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 7/12/13”

1. 1
   crysball Says:
   

   State  Greed…………..States want  up  to 37.5%  of  Continental Shelf  Energy  Revenues………….between  the States  and  Fed. Government  they  will  try  again  to 'KILL THE  GOOSE  THAT  LAYS  THE GOLDEN  EGGS' :

   http://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/127703/Senators_Introduce_Coastal_Revenue_Sharing_Bill

    

   July 13th, 2013 at 12:27 pm
2. 2
   milepost_43 Says:
   

   NG Policy

   Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee Chairman Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) said lawmakers on the panel will soon unveil proposals on natural gas policy, a topic that has been a top committee focus this year. Wyden said in an interview airing this weekend on Bloomberg Government’s Capitol Gains.
   The committee, in hearings and informal committee “forums” this year, has heard hours of testimony on hydraulic fracturing, natural gas exports, infrastructure and many other topics related to the nation’s gas production boom.

    

   July 14th, 2013 at 5:32 am
3. 3
   zman Says:
   

   re 1 and 2 – thanks, out of the office most of this weekend.

   Re 1 – don't get me started, LOL

   Re 2 – we've been waiting on the Natural Gas Act for over 3 years now, Pickens Plan just turned 5.  I welcome a little resolution going forward. What we've seen so far has not been overly burdensome on the frac side and exports obviously have a better chance now of actually happening than they have in the past. 

   July 14th, 2013 at 11:51 am
4. 4
   crysball Says:
   

   GDP  for  Q2  being  revised  to  1.0%  according  to Critical Risk:

   Calculated Risk

    

   Q2 GDP tracking 1.0%

   Posted: 14 Jul 2013 07:02 AM PDT

   From Merrill Lynch:

   Our tracking model now pegs 2Q GDP growth at just 1%, and we only get that high with some fairly generous bounce back assumed for some of the missing data. We don’t see anything fluky about this number: it is the third weak quarter in a row.

   From MarketWatch:

   Barclays … cut its second-quarter GDP trading estimate to 1.0% from 1.6% after the trade deficit widened in May. In a note to clients, Barclays blamed the larger-than-expected increase in imports in the month for the downward revision.

   J.P.Morgan also cut their Q2 forecast to 1.0% (from 2.0%).

   This mid-year slowdown has been expected due to the significant drag from fiscal policy. Here is what I wrote in January: The Future's so Bright …

   The key short term risk is too much additional deficit reduction too quickly. There is a strong argument that the "fiscal agreement" might be a little too much with the current unemployment rate – my initial estimate was that Federal government austerity would subtract about 1.5 percentage points from growth in 2013 (Merrill Lynch estimate up to 2.0 percentage points including an estimate for the coming sequester agreement). This means another year of sluggish growth, even with an improved private sector (retail will be impacted by the payroll tax increase). But ex-austerity, we'd probably be looking at a decent year.

   Note: Fiscal policy is even more negative than I thought in January because I assumed some sort of agreement on limiting the sequestration budget cuts.  The good news is the fiscal drag should start to diminish later this year.

   Click on graph for larger image.

   Last month I posted Four Charts to Track Timing for QE3 Tapering . Here is an update to the GDP chart.

   The June FOMC forecast was for GDP to increase between 2.3% and 2.6% from Q4 2012 to Q4 2013.

   The first quarter was below the FOMC projections (red), and it appears the second quarter will also be below the FOMC forecast..  Of course the Fed appears to be focusing mostly on employment to start tapering QE3 purchases, but they can't ignore other data (the advance estimate for Q2 GDP will be released July 1st, and the second estimate on August 29th).

   Assuming a 1.0% growth rate in Q2, GDP would have to be at a 3.2% annual pace in the 2nd half to reach the FOMC's lower forecast (3.8% growth to reach the higher forecast).  More likely the FOMC will revise down their forecasts in September.

   July 14th, 2013 at 5:14 pm
5. 5
   crysball Says:
   

   Oops…………excuse typo  shoud  be  'Calculated Risk'  not  Critical Risk.

   July 14th, 2013 at 5:15 pm
6. 6
   zman Says:
   

   Crys – thanks, if you ever fail to see a comment appear and it had a lot of links in it, shoot me an email, it's like caught in the system's spam filter. 

   July 14th, 2013 at 5:28 pm
7. 7
   Zorgnak Says:
   

   E&P Index (92stocks).No red flags here. Money flow , price and cumulative demand volume all headed in the right direction. 

   http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/ZLT715_zpsa0ff3839.png

   XLE and XOP trading above major volume pivots with positive demand volume

   XLE

   http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/07/14/stock_master390_1307141552

   XOP  Clearing long term volume base

   http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/07/14/stock_master390_1307141555

   July 14th, 2013 at 6:00 pm
8. 8
   Zorgnak Says:
   

   Refiners  Coming up on first resistance. Demand volume begining to turn.

   http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/refiners715_zps1513d6e8.png

   VLO Minor resistance 36.20, Resistance, supply at 37.63

   http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/07/14/stock_master390_1307141608

   HFC  Tested/stalled at  resistance on Friday at 43.88

   http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/07/14/stock_master390_1307141610

   July 14th, 2013 at 6:12 pm
9. 9
   zman Says:
   

   re 7 , 8 thanks for the levels Zorg. 

   July 14th, 2013 at 6:41 pm
10. 10
    Zorgnak Says:
    

    S&P Futures.   Small and micro cap stocks have been driving the market the last couple of weeks. The S&P has risen to new highs on very low demand volume. Lower panel on the chart shows the nearly complete lack of particiation by large volume traders in the move up. I raised some cash late last week with the thought we'd see a pullback to reload/rebalance and I still think that's a viable scenario but if we break out from this level I'm ready to put it back to work into  the stocks that lead the break higher. 

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/07/15/es_master_1307141803

    July 14th, 2013 at 8:24 pm
11. 11
    Zorgnak Says:
    

    Crude Oil Resistance 106.75, Support 104.25

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/07/15/crude_oil_multi_period_1307141825

    Nat Gas continues to trade in balance at long term acceptance.

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/07/15/ng_master_1307141827

    Still short crude -9%, Long Nat Gas  +2%   

    July 14th, 2013 at 8:29 pm
12. 12
    zman Says:
    

    re 11 – did you look at the short crude, long refiners trade?

    July 14th, 2013 at 8:58 pm
13. 13
    Zorgnak Says:
    

    #12 I didn't but that's the way it's working out…..long VLO

    July 14th, 2013 at 9:08 pm
14. 14
    choices Says:
    

    Chinese Q2 GDP in at 7.5%, meeting expectations-should calm some of the hysteria (for the moment).

    July 14th, 2013 at 9:36 pm

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