28
Jun
Wrap – Week Ended 06/28/13
Comments will be included in the Monday post in the The Week That Was Section.
28
Jun
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The wrap table above has been updated to reflect 1H13 performance. Comments will be included in the Week That Was section of the Sunday post which will be open to the public.
June 29th, 2013 at 9:24 amSome "fine print" in President Obama's climate plan could increase costs for segments of the natgas industry:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-28/methane-scrutiny-in-obama-climate-plan-may-cost-drillers.html?source=email_rt_mc_body
June 29th, 2013 at 9:32 amRe #3 Here's a shot of the recent long signals…
http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/RLong_zps5a7d6ce0.png
June 29th, 2013 at 1:42 pmZorg.
difficult to see the fine print in that chart. if you get a moment, would love to see it in a larger format
June 30th, 2013 at 9:09 am#5…brodway, It appears that my post with the parameters has been deleted…I've posted it below. The #4 chart is difficult to see abut if I change the format it reduces the number of trades shown. My suggestion is to put the parameters below onto a chart using whatever chart package you use and the buys and sells will align with the chart posted in #4.
Basic Swing Trade Chart setup.
Daily chart of SPY with 10 day MA and 200 Day MA, 10 Day Williams %R with oversold at -85 and overbought at -10.
All indicators for basic setup can be found in most charting packages. Here it is at StockCharts.com
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p43206032565
Basic rules.
Long entry on a price close > 200 MA and 10 Day %R closing below oversold.
Longs exit with either a close >the 10 MA or 10 Day %R > midpoint, on the next open. (Subject to market conditions you may want to hold longer or take partial profits.)
Short entry on a close < 200 MA and 10 Day % R closing above overbought.
Short exit on a close below either the 10 MA or 10 Day %R midpoint. Exit at the close.
There are a couple of other tweaks and filters using data and software not available for free that I use to up the performance but the core of the idea is above. I’ll pass those signals along in the ZLT room as they occur. I’ll leave it to you to find ways to enhance the setup that suits your needs. Using longer term breadth trends and POMO are areas that have enhanced performance for me. One area ripe for research and testing is when to extend the holding period if the market appears to be in a longer term trend. The indicator levels above are just a starting point. DaveH, one of ZLT site members has come up with different levels that produce better gains. Biggest determinate of success though isn’t the setup but the willingness to take each trade when according to all reports the world is falling apart.
The most valuable use of this idea for me has been to quantifiably show when market risk of entry is low in uptrends and when market risk is highest in bear markets.
Long trades Since 1994. % Profitable 81.29% with 4.24 Profit Factor 139 trades
Short trades. 72.50% 3.15 Profit Factor 76 Trades
If you have questions, fire away.
June 30th, 2013 at 10:36 am#6…there may be some confusion with %R as it is plotted differently on various charting packages. You'' have to adjust the below/above statement in the parameters above to fit how the %R is graphed for you. In Tradestation it is below the oversold that would be used for a long entry…at Stockcharts.com %R is reversed and oversold is reversed and is considered oversold when above the oversold level….. the rules for Stockcharts.com would be…
Basic rules.
Long entry on a price close > 200 MA and 10 Day %R closing above oversold.
Longs exit with either a close >the 10 MA or 10 Day %R < midpoint, on the next open. (Subject to market conditions you may want to hold longer or take partial profits.)
Short entry on a close < 200 MA and 10 Day % R closing below overbought.
Short exit on a close below either the 10 MA or >10 Day %R midpoint. Exit at the close.
June 30th, 2013 at 10:47 amplease delete # 7
June 30th, 2013 at 10:51 amThe Sunday to Tuesday post is now up. Open to public, please share it widely, Twitter, Facebook, Spacemybook, etc. I'll check in a number of times tomorrow. Play nice, have fun.
June 30th, 2013 at 11:11 amThe GOM Coastal Tanker Trade becomes interesting, thanks to the Jones Act:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/01/us-usa-tankers-jonesact-analysis-idUSBRE96004K20130701
and a possible interesting opportunity for Z to look at in OGIQ ?
July 1st, 2013 at 3:10 am