Wrap – Week Ended 6/21/13

Comments will be included in the Monday post. 

The Trade Blotter is updated. 

wrap 062113


15 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 6/21/13”

  1. 1
    nrgyman Says:

    One of Jim Hacket's new activities and a sign of appetite for energy investments:



  2. 2
    crysball Says:

    Rosneft  cuts   $270 Billion  deal  to  supply    China  OIl……………..300,000 BOPD  for  long term:




  3. 3
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Barron's – LINE/LNCO  Leon C. piece with A Bary rebuttal. I will always take the Leon side of anything. 

  4. 4
    crysball Says:

    California's  self-inflicted   Gasoline  price  crisis:


    Let the 'WHINING '  begin!

  5. 5
    crysball Says:

    Gasoline price trends  nationwide……………from Critical Risk:


    Interesting  note at  the end  saying  according  to   'Formula'  per  gallon prices  for  Regular  should go  to  $3.40 gallon.

    The  local  shortatge  in the Upper Midwest (due to  refinery  issues now  overcome)drove   gasoline  prices  up  50 cents/gallon plus   were  immediatly noticable  in approx. 10 to 15%  reduction  indisretionary  spending  for  travel  and  restaurants  in the local economies.

  6. 6
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Futures…Thoughts 

    Weak/inconclusive bounce from last weeks sell off. Last weeks oversold quantitative setup has a 84% history of bouncing back to the 10 day MA but so far intra-day demand volume has only brought price back to the Thursday's close creating a tentative balance at the 1583 volume pivot CHVN. Watch how 1583 is treated on Monday. Resistance at 1591.  Minor support at 1564. Expecting a bounce, but there is no evidence yet that one is forthcoming from present levels. Watch demand intra-day volume and breadth expansion with a break of 1591 as key for short term upside attempt. 1606 is first upside supply followed by heavy supply from 1620 and above.  Respect alternate scenario of further drift lower to major CHVN at 1543 if demand volume and breadth continue negative.  


    S&P  SPY ETF  Here's another  longer term view using quarterly volume profiles(magenta). This quarter's double distribution profile (two volume ranges, seperated by a defined CLVN) shows the break of the CLVN support at 160.33 last week and the rejection of the upper range. Currently the market is trading at the CHVN/Volume pivot at 158.84. How the market treats this level has important short term implications.For bulls three important levels… a break above 160.33 CLVN/ volume gap then has two levels of supply  to penetrate at 160.91 and then 163.14 in order to regain and hold the previous upper range . If the current level  at 158.84 is rejected as too high Monday, then a choppy drift lower to test support(Friday's Lows) at 157.50 is likely. A break of 157.50 opens further downside to the Major CHVN at 155.50. There's no clear edge here on Sunday morning with a bounce most likley but one that has yet to find traction…


  7. 7
    brodway Says:


    Friday was a quadruple witching day, so some of you technicals could have been skewed one way or another. I think Monday will be more of a normalized trading day and should be more indicative of which way the market is headed.

  8. 8
    brodway Says:


    I was wondering if you can come up with a chart showing energy accumulation over last 3-6 months. Not sure how to do this but i'm sensing there's a clear rotation into energy names and the move down in equities is having less impact on energy shares.

    Also wanted to mention oil was back to 93, an area you mentioned before to be the in balance number. Almost a magnet, but non the less a higher number than we saw late last year.

  9. 9
    Zorgnak Says:

    #8  Re Energy Accumulation/Relative Strength. The chart shows XLE(red) and XOP(yellow) and the S&P500(white) rate of change in %s.

    During the early bit of the mkt rollover energy did show a bit of outperformance following May's relative strength. Since June 7th energy has fallen faster than the market as a whole. The bottom panel shows demand volume for XLE, which is negative on an absolute basis short term.For the past two trading days, energy is near the bottom of the sector pile on price change.


  10. 10
    Zorgnak Says:

    #8 re Energy accumulation/Relative Strength..  Middle histogram (green) shows accumulation as measure by Chaikins money flow reached it's peak on 5/21.


    S&P peaked on 5/17 after the long run. 


  11. 11
    Zorgnak Says:

    #8  Crude Oil…The major CHVN at 93 is indeed the magnet on the map with prices both higher and lower since last year. Note the nearly perfect alignment of quarterly, monthly and long term price acceptance.  A market at major long and short term balance means it's a coin toss to me  techinically and a great spot to be wrong quickly a number of times trying to guess what's next…



  12. 12
    Zorgnak Says:

    # 8  Accumulation and sector relative strength

    Here's a clever site that allows you to do a relative screen on both price, volume and breadth metrics for sectors, industries, groups and the stocks within them…


  13. 13
    Zorgnak Says:

    $USD  Back to mid range, quarterly balance(magenta) and long term CHVN at 82.88. Important volume pivot going forward after the rejection of  major long term acceptance at 80.61 as too low. Which area will be the magnet? 


  14. 14
    brodway Says:


    awesome stuff. will peruse though 12 later tonight.

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    re 1 – thanks, thought he was going to divinity school, guess new dual focus here. 

    re 3 – anyone have that in a form they could send to us, zman@zmansenergybrain.com or zmanalpha@gmail.com

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