22
Jun
Wrap – Week Ended 6/21/13
Comments will be included in the Monday post.
The Trade Blotter is updated.
22
Jun
This entry was posted on Saturday, June 22nd, 2013 at 6:39 am and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
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One of Jim Hacket's new activities and a sign of appetite for energy investments:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/19/riverstone-fund-idUSL2N0EV0QM20130619?feedType=RSS&feedName=mergersNews&rpc=43
June 22nd, 2013 at 10:02 amRosneft cuts $270 Billion deal to supply China OIl……………..300,000 BOPD for long term:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/21/rosneft-china-idUSL5N0EX0JR20130621
June 22nd, 2013 at 8:38 pmBarron's – LINE/LNCO Leon C. piece with A Bary rebuttal. I will always take the Leon side of anything.
June 23rd, 2013 at 9:46 amCalifornia's self-inflicted Gasoline price crisis:
http://www.exxonmobilperspectives.com/2012/10/10/the-golden-states-self-inflicted-crisis/?utm_content=Why+Californians+Paid+80+Cents+More+Per+Gallon+of+Gas&utm_source=Outbrain&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=Perspectives_-_Tier_2
Let the 'WHINING ' begin!
June 23rd, 2013 at 10:32 amGasoline price trends nationwide……………from Critical Risk:
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/06/gasoline-prices-down-slightly_23.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CalculatedRisk+%28Calculated+Risk%29
Interesting note at the end saying according to 'Formula' per gallon prices for Regular should go to $3.40 gallon.
The local shortatge in the Upper Midwest (due to refinery issues now overcome)drove gasoline prices up 50 cents/gallon plus were immediatly noticable in approx. 10 to 15% reduction indisretionary spending for travel and restaurants in the local economies.
June 23rd, 2013 at 11:46 amS&P Futures…Thoughts
Weak/inconclusive bounce from last weeks sell off. Last weeks oversold quantitative setup has a 84% history of bouncing back to the 10 day MA but so far intra-day demand volume has only brought price back to the Thursday's close creating a tentative balance at the 1583 volume pivot CHVN. Watch how 1583 is treated on Monday. Resistance at 1591. Minor support at 1564. Expecting a bounce, but there is no evidence yet that one is forthcoming from present levels. Watch demand intra-day volume and breadth expansion with a break of 1591 as key for short term upside attempt. 1606 is first upside supply followed by heavy supply from 1620 and above. Respect alternate scenario of further drift lower to major CHVN at 1543 if demand volume and breadth continue negative.
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/06/23/es_master_1306230954
S&P SPY ETF Here's another longer term view using quarterly volume profiles(magenta). This quarter's double distribution profile (two volume ranges, seperated by a defined CLVN) shows the break of the CLVN support at 160.33 last week and the rejection of the upper range. Currently the market is trading at the CHVN/Volume pivot at 158.84. How the market treats this level has important short term implications.For bulls three important levels… a break above 160.33 CLVN/ volume gap then has two levels of supply to penetrate at 160.91 and then 163.14 in order to regain and hold the previous upper range . If the current level at 158.84 is rejected as too high Monday, then a choppy drift lower to test support(Friday's Lows) at 157.50 is likely. A break of 157.50 opens further downside to the Major CHVN at 155.50. There's no clear edge here on Sunday morning with a bounce most likley but one that has yet to find traction…
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/06/23/stock_master390_1306231031
June 23rd, 2013 at 12:56 pmZorg.
Friday was a quadruple witching day, so some of you technicals could have been skewed one way or another. I think Monday will be more of a normalized trading day and should be more indicative of which way the market is headed.
June 23rd, 2013 at 4:35 pmZorg.
I was wondering if you can come up with a chart showing energy accumulation over last 3-6 months. Not sure how to do this but i'm sensing there's a clear rotation into energy names and the move down in equities is having less impact on energy shares.
Also wanted to mention oil was back to 93, an area you mentioned before to be the in balance number. Almost a magnet, but non the less a higher number than we saw late last year.
June 23rd, 2013 at 4:51 pm#8 Re Energy Accumulation/Relative Strength. The chart shows XLE(red) and XOP(yellow) and the S&P500(white) rate of change in %s.
During the early bit of the mkt rollover energy did show a bit of outperformance following May's relative strength. Since June 7th energy has fallen faster than the market as a whole. The bottom panel shows demand volume for XLE, which is negative on an absolute basis short term.For the past two trading days, energy is near the bottom of the sector pile on price change.
http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/energyroc_zps3506f9bc.png
June 23rd, 2013 at 6:21 pm#8 re Energy accumulation/Relative Strength.. Middle histogram (green) shows accumulation as measure by Chaikins money flow reached it's peak on 5/21.
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/06/23/stock_master390_1306231623
S&P peaked on 5/17 after the long run.
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/06/23/stock_master390_1306231626
June 23rd, 2013 at 6:29 pm#8 Crude Oil…The major CHVN at 93 is indeed the magnet on the map with prices both higher and lower since last year. Note the nearly perfect alignment of quarterly, monthly and long term price acceptance. A market at major long and short term balance means it's a coin toss to me techinically and a great spot to be wrong quickly a number of times trying to guess what's next…
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/06/23/crude_oil_multi_period_1306231640
June 23rd, 2013 at 6:49 pm# 8 Accumulation and sector relative strength
Here's a clever site that allows you to do a relative screen on both price, volume and breadth metrics for sectors, industries, groups and the stocks within them…
http://chartmill.com/sectorrankings.php?r=1&t=C2&s=17
June 23rd, 2013 at 6:54 pm$USD Back to mid range, quarterly balance(magenta) and long term CHVN at 82.88. Important volume pivot going forward after the rejection of major long term acceptance at 80.61 as too low. Which area will be the magnet?
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/06/23/dxy_master_1306231656
June 23rd, 2013 at 7:02 pmZorg.
awesome stuff. will peruse though 12 later tonight.
June 23rd, 2013 at 7:10 pmre 1 – thanks, thought he was going to divinity school, guess new dual focus here.
re 3 – anyone have that in a form they could send to us, zman@zmansenergybrain.com or zmanalpha@gmail.com
June 23rd, 2013 at 9:30 pm