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Apr
Wrap – Week Ended 4/26/13
Comments will be included in the Monday post. In brief, 1Q13 E&P earnings began in earnest last week and were largely in line with to slightly better than expectations. Guidance was largely reiterated. There were few real surprises. On the Service side, where we have minimal exposure, investor and analyst confidence was somewhat shaken in the NAM weighted names. CRR comes to mind as one where we have been concerned about margins and growth and the bloom came off the rose with a miss. We'll have the details in The Week That Was section of the Monday post. Look for the Energy Earnings Week 3 Calendar on Monday along with some other odds and ends before another busy week of earnings for E&P and the refiners.
Holdings Watch:
| Holdings Watch: In the ZMT we got busy with options. We sold half of our HAL May $41 calls, taken in the previous week (25 of 50) up 65% another (10) of them up 270%. We added NFX May $22 (20) and May $24 (50) strike calls. We added (5) COG May $70 calls. In the ZLT we made no changes to the Core portfolio but did add a Trading Only position in GST at $2.32. The ZLT Blotter is updated. We made not changes to the ZLT-C accounts last week. | |||||
Jeremy Grantham likes NG…
http://m.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/buy-natural-gas-jeremy-grantham-says/article11004660/?service=mobile
April 28th, 2013 at 9:06 amre 1 – thanks, looking forward to Tuesday's supply and demand updates and we will have our slide shows in the Wednesday post.
The blotter is updated
The holdings watch for last week has been added above.
April 28th, 2013 at 1:24 pmS&P 500 Futures. Intermediate Term Profile
April 28th, 2013 at 5:52 pmMarket trading well above major acceptance at 1546.75 and previous range highs at 1568.25. Two important levels to start the week off at 1573.25 below and 1583 above. Below 1573.25 the market is likely to test the current range expansion at 1568.25 and a break there works back to 1546.75. On the flip side, a break above 1583 would likely challenge previous highs and create value in the new higher range. The read is fuzzy at best with the market overbought in a monster long term uptrend. The mean reversion trader in me see's a pullback to 1546.75 as most likely but without any evidence to support that view until 1573.25 gives way to a test of 1568.25. The previous range lows are at 1526.50
http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/28/ES_Master_1304281534.png
Thanks Zorg
April 28th, 2013 at 6:30 pmre: 1
April 28th, 2013 at 8:11 pmagree with the author that the nat gas story should materialize in the next few years. for those who will stick around until it plays out, the wait will be more than worth it.
started to re-calibrate my portfolio last week. sold off the rest of my XCO position and made small adds to both BCEI and CRZO. i find that volatile times enable me to enhance my portfolio by replacing stocks with names that have a higher probability of rising faster and farther than those i've held in the portfolio without my success. MHR next on the chopping block…need to buy back RRC that i sold back in March.
Marathon Oil Detroit Refinery Fire
April 28th, 2013 at 9:12 pmhttp://news.yahoo.com/marathon-detroit-refinery-fire-began-during-tank-fueling-212636173.html
Apparently not any significant operational impact.